Weak export of tropical water out of the Pacific during that phase should see a build - up of heat in the Pacific basin.
Since mid 2004, however, rural export earnings have fallen, mostly due to a decline in cereals exports, following the smaller winter crop in 2004/05, and
weaker exports of wool.
Not exact matches
Fabricated metals is another
of the industries that the Bank
of Canada thought would lead the
export recovery as shipments traditionally got a boost for a
weak currency.
But for Poloz, that would be attacking a symptom
of the post-crisis malaise, rather than the cause, which in his view is
weak exports and business spending.
One
of the most frustrating issues for Poloz is the country's
weak export growth, especially outside
of the energy sector.
South Korea, the primary casualty
of a
weak yen, has yet to retaliate but is weighing an «active response to minimize any negative impacts on
exports,» Bank
of Korea governor Kim Choong - soo said last month, raising the possibility
of South Korean devaluation.
But the mechanics
of the euro guarantee escalating tension: The single currency makes the
exports of weaker countries artificially expensive (and those
of Germany excessively cheap), putting their economies at a crippling disadvantage.
Canada's
weak export picture had been a constant source of concern for Stephen Poloz in recent years (reminder: before he was the Governor, Poloz was the head of Export Development Ca
export picture had been a constant source
of concern for Stephen Poloz in recent years (reminder: before he was the Governor, Poloz was the head
of Export Development Ca
Export Development Canada).
«The disappointing performance in
export activity suggests that the loss
of export competitiveness from the strong dollar and the
weak global backdrop are becoming a net drag on U.S. economic activity,» said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.
The
export bounce is, at face value, a sign that China's modest economic revival is intact and suggestive
of global demand being on the mend, but imports were surprisingly
weak, falling 15.2 percent from a year earlier to 13 - month lows and highlighting vulnerability lurking in the domestic economy.
The Business Outlook Survey says executives are feeling better because
of stronger demand for
exports and a
weaker currency that is boosting their profit margins.
Poloz says the only rate he cares about is inflation, and virtually every piece
of official communication from the central bank notes the boost that non-energy
exports are getting from the
weaker exchange rate.
In July, when the Bank
of Canada cut its policy to its current setting
of 0.5 %, policy makers expressed concern over
weak non-energy
exports and a deep contraction in business investment brought on by the collapse
of commodity prices.
A
weak GBP could make the auto maker cost - competitive and efficient in most
of the markets it
exports to, including China, which is critical both in terms
of profitability and volumes, he said.
Last year, and for the first time since 2001, the contribution
of net
exports to overall growth turned positive, but the performance
of non-energy
exports and investment remains
weak.
Meanwhile,
exports and investment are still
weaker than one would expect at this stage
of the business cycle, even though growth in the global economy has also surprised on the upside.
Japanese equities also should continue to see upside, thanks to a
weaker yen, long - awaited domestic growth and increasing
exports, a beneficiary
of the improving global economy.
Because Canada's relatively
weak export performance has been a central aspect
of our economic situation, the Bank
of Canada has examined it in increasing detail.
The
weaker euro could, therefore, provide a direct boost to the earnings - per - share
of export - oriented companies.
The real issue that was not addressed in the budget is the absence
of any economic engine to spur a recovery in growth in 2014 and beyond, The household sector is deep in debt; housing construction has stalled; companies lack confidence and are not investing; the federal and provincial governments are in serious restraint mode; and the
export sector is
weak and deteriorating.
Perhaps the biggest one is that the market for the bulk
of Canada's
exports, amounting to about 25 per cent
of Canadian GDP, namely the United States, is currently very
weak.
Plus, the effect
of a
weaker sterling has been beneficial in a few ways, with consumer price inflation increasing, manufacturing and
export levels also on the rise.
At the same time, Canadian
exports and business spending are still
weaker than you would expect to see at this stage
of the business cycle.
It has also led to a
weaker euro, which has helped revenues
of the region's
export - oriented economies, such as Germany.
Normally the contraction impact
of much
weaker iron ore
export prices should be partially mitigated by the expansion impact
of a
weaker Australian dollar, as iron - related inflows drop sharply.
Nevertheless I do worry that the fall in
exports from a strong dollar is a bit stronger than the rise in
exports from a
weak dollar: I suspect because there is a hysteresis effect: Once a factory is shut down, it stays shut down — and if firms don't continuously invest to stay at the cutting edge
of technology, it can be hard for a high - wage advanced economy to stay globally competitive.
Even after a drop in commodities this month, seven
of eight tracked by the Standard & Poor's GSCI Agriculture Index are higher than a year earlier as adverse weather damages crops, rising demand erodes inventories and a
weak dollar boosts demand for U.S.
exports.
If these inflows however are counterbalanced by rising private inflows from Chinese businesses and wealthy individuals taking money out
of China, either because
of weaker domestic growth prospects
of because
of rising nervousness and uncertainty, asset prices might not fall as much as we would have expected, but Australia will be caught in a vice a little like that
of, for example, Spain, in which
export weakness can not be partially counterbalanced by a
weaker currency.
A
weak Yen and a strong RMB pose a problem for China because Japan is its largest trading partner in the region at 7 %
of total
exports.
A closer look at the decomposition
of nominal non-energy
exports shows that the sectors that have performed reasonably well are driven by a
weaker currency while those tied more to the level
of foreign demand have struggled to gain traction.
Also, the US economy was quite
weak in the first half
of the year in dimensions that are important to Canadian
export demand.
The downward revision reflects further downgrades
of business investment plans in the energy sector, as well as
weaker - than - expected
exports of non-energy commodities and non-commodities.
As the Canadian economy contends with softer than expected
exports,
weak business investment and effects
of the Alberta wildfires, real GDP growth in 2016 is forecast to be 1.4 per cent...
To ensure sustainable growth, it needs to reduce the dependence on
exports and fixed asset investment and to increase domestic consumption — but the rate
of consumption growth remains
weak.
2015.10.28
Exporting represents golden growth opportunity for small - and medium - sized businesses in Canada: RBC Economics A
weaker Canadian dollar, lower energy prices and stronger growth in key
export markets are creating opportunities for small businesses to reap the benefits
of exporting...
2016.06.10 Canadian economic activity erratic through 2016: RBC Economics As the Canadian economy contends with softer than expected
exports,
weak business investment and effects
of the Alberta wildfires, real GDP growth in 2016 is forecast to be 1.4 per cent...
The
weaker dollar will boost
exports, but QE2 likely won't be sufficient to jar the economy out
of its recent malaise, economists say.
With crude - oil
exports rising year - over-year, the value
of the
exports did not rise proportionally, with Canada's crude - oil
export bill declining about 11 percent to $ 50 billion in 2016 compared to $ 55.8 billion the previous year, as lower crude prices and a
weaker dollar cramped the
export value
of crude.
Economic growth in the UK was broadly supported by consumer confidence and
exports reinforced by a
weaker pound sterling, with the easing
of credit conditions leading to credit growth, loose fiscal policy and global economic growth.
The surplus in goods trade with the U.S. was the smallest since the third quarter
of 2016, as
weaker prices decreased the value
of oil
exports.
In addition to a
weaker euro, which helps fuel its
export - oriented economy, the cost
of financing its sovereign debt relative to its existing debt continues to fall while the smaller countries struggle with rising financing costs.
In contrast, net
exports have been a significant drag on growth, largely because
of weak merchandise
exports.
The
weak export performance seen since 2000 has reflected subdued performance in all major categories
of exports.
Of these
weaker data points to which Poloz makes note, the most concerning are the drop in non-energy
exports, anemic wage growth and a disappointing jobs market.
The Greenback is recovering the bulk
of last week's losses, with the Euro
weaker despite German IP and
Exports better than expected, and Euro Unemployment coming in at 7 year lows — Sterling falls to October Lows on Article 50 headers — Turkey's Lira fresh record low on Moody's, Peso eyeballing lows into Auto Show Headers.
As you know, the Japanese economy has been extremely
weak over the past five years, and our
exports to Japan have been flat over most
of that period.
It is also true,
of course, that if
exports are
weaker, then GDP growth will also be lower than it would have been without the «external shock».
Despite a strong dollar and
weak exports, manufacturing activity will benefit from improved domestic demand, and further gains in construction activity will aid the recovery
of states such as California and Arizona.
Manufacturing production rose at the slowest pace for a year, as rates
of expansion in new business and new
export orders eased to the
weakest since April 2015 and January 2015 respectively.
Buoyant conditions in domestically oriented industries, particularly construction, offset
weaker conditions faced by
export - oriented firms, including some parts
of manufacturing.