What the paleoclimate information does indicate is that the warmth of the past 50 years is not outside the range of natural variability and is no cause for alarm.
Sure, it would take a lot of computing power to go from 100 - year to 10,000 year runs, constrained by
what paleoclimate data we have.
(My quick comment was about
what paleoclimate peer reviewers do though.)
What paleoclimate and oceanography researchers know of the mechanisms underlying such a climate «flip» suggests that global warming could start one in several different ways.
Not exact matches
Evidence of these changes is found in many parts of the Southern Hemisphere and in different
paleoclimate archives, but
what prompted these changes has remained largely unexplained.
The match of his model to actual
paleoclimate is impressive, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's right — especially since Huybers made no suggestion about
what the physical mechanism is which brings this about.
One issue that I have wondered about for some time is to
what extent the
paleoclimate record supports the distinction between slow - feedback and fast - feedback climate sensitivity.
What I'm not seeing is a strongly negative feedback supported in the literature, and once again, if you adopt that idea, you've got to explain
paleoclimate.
The
paleoclimate record (8.2 kyr, and earlier «large lake collapses») shows a dramatic drop in surface temperatures for a substantial period of time when the ocean circulation shuts off or changes, but is that actually
what would be expected under these warming conditions?
What about the feedbacks that are not normally well represented by ECS and normally fall into the Earth System Climate Sensitivity, stuff like the Arctic Ice cover, which now has trends over decades closer to what was seen on centuries in paleoclim
What about the feedbacks that are not normally well represented by ECS and normally fall into the Earth System Climate Sensitivity, stuff like the Arctic Ice cover, which now has trends over decades closer to
what was seen on centuries in paleoclim
what was seen on centuries in
paleoclimate:
What's more, no big missing link exists in
paleoclimate that demand we be searching for such a process.
It is conventional honest serious scientists that are already doing
what JC wants, and it is the nature of
paleoclimate studies the proxy reconstructions will never have the level of credibility of a direct measurement.
One thing I keep wondering about (in relationship to storms, drought, in particular) is how
paleoclimate work so often resets the bar on
what is thought of as rare or extreme.
What is true is that there is very very strong evidence from
paleoclimate data (deep sea sediment cores) for changes in the distribution of chemical tracers that must reflect changes in the deep circulation in the Atlantic.
However, given
what we are seeing in terms of current climate trends and the
paleoclimate record, such a name would seem to be more a matter of wishful thinking than an apt description of the processes involved.
The big question for Hansen is of course how quickly these long - term feedbacks will take to manifest themselves, and given
what we are now seeing as well as the
paleoclimate record itself, it seem that the answer is sooner rather than later.
Well guess
what -
paleoclimate reconstruction is a rather specialized, and tiny, field.
Drawing on improved
paleoclimate records and current global observations has prompted the authors to reach new conclusions about
what constitutes a safe level of CO2.
But GISP2 doesn't take into account the full
paleoclimate record, so I find it highly suspect that you are not inquisitive enough to get a full read on
what is available in current literature.
This approximation is basically
what Nic Lewis does for his estimates and
what James Hansen does for his
Paleoclimate estimates (actually pretty much all
Paleoclimate estimates use this approximation).
The
paleoclimate is especially an area of uncertainty — which is not
what I said but
what I quoted from the NAS.
One has only to look at the recent exchange of papers in Annals of Statistics (McShane and Wyner) on
paleoclimate or the recent withdrawl of a paper claiming an «Australian hockey stick» caused by a blogger (Steve McIntyre) who had the gaul to approach the results skeptically to see
what the problem is here.
-- Perhaps to someone unfamiliar with
what «instrument record» means or the immense
paleoclimate history of the Earth.
As a reviewer for AR4, it was my position that, if the
paleoclimate issues were not relevant to the policy issues, then the Paleoclimate (and the hockey stick discussion) should be deleted from AR4 so that people could focus on what were the «real»
paleoclimate issues were not relevant to the policy issues, then the
Paleoclimate (and the hockey stick discussion) should be deleted from AR4 so that people could focus on what were the «real»
Paleoclimate (and the hockey stick discussion) should be deleted from AR4 so that people could focus on
what were the «real» arguments.
Looking at the
paleoclimate record might be one excellent way of seeing
what this additional CO2 might do to the climate system.
Since it is not possible to go back in time to see
what climates were like, scientists use imprints created during past climate, known as proxies, to interpret
paleoclimate.
The dynamic range is much better in the
paleoclimate data and that is
what enables us to actually fight off the uncertainty (monster).
The Archer - Schmidt view of CO2 hanging around for centuries seems based on a model of residence time having
what I see as at least three problems: fallacious appeal to
paleoclimate, irrelevance of average residence time per molecule, and neglect of disequilibrium coefficients.
As where Marcott et al went wrong as climate scientists, when they used
paleoclimate data of long millenia time scales in natural variability, with the short decadal time scale (weather) in natural variability and claim to predict the future of where the pendulum of climatology will be in the future, when actually showing that they are confused,
what they are representing as evidence of the future climate is in fact their total misunderstanding of climatology and the complex chaotic circumstances that influence the real world.
NIPCC intermediate report just provides a synthesis of recent (2009 and 2010)
paleoclimate reconstructions, confirming scientifically
what historical records had taught us for years (and even decades) i.e. that MWP was a global warm period...
there is no credible way for the
paleoclimate to be very different from
what has been described so far.
Lets see
what Michael Mann, lead Author for IPCC, member of the Team, author of many
paleoclimate articles, says:
If one has a
paleoclimate series of dubious accuracy plotted against a temperature time series of dubious accuracy —
what exactly was shown by all this effort?
*
Paleoclimate reconstructions stretching far back in time using proxies that don't capture the fine grain of the annual natural variability - can be somewhat inaccurate representations of
what has actually historically occurred in the real physical world.
Actually, there is not a good open access option for most of my work, as I have grumbled before,
what with the EGU climate journal focussing specifically on
paleoclimate.
The
paleoclimate experts know
what fast is.
Jim D, if you and others like you aren't willing to do
what must be done to greatly increase the price of carbon, then all your talk of ice sheet melting, sea level rise, climate tipping points, global temperature trends, the earth's
paleoclimate history, and climate model projections — all of that talk is mere Kabuke theater.
Anyone who would like to discuss with me the facts revealed by the Wegman report that there is a
paleoclimate mafia controlling
what gets published, that they have systematically published erroneous interpretations of paleoclimatic data, and that almost any paleoclimatic temperature profile can be obtained depending on how you manipulate the proxies, just email me at drdrapp [at] earthlink.net and tell me your name, address, professional affiliation, and recent work you have done climate science.
PS — I'd be very interested to hear a bit more about
what you are referring to when you say a «procedure of working out from good data has much to recommend to
paleoclimate.»
This is a significant fraction of
what has been ejected by volcanoes in
paleoclimate changes, and will lead to significant warming as those events did.
What is new is that
paleoclimate finally gets a chapter of its own (but one that, understandably, concentrates more on the well - documented Pleistocene than on deep time).
Evidently,
what prompts this article is the amount of attention being given to
paleoclimate data in the forthcoming AR4 report of the IPCC.
For clarification, this is not an argument about
what ESS is, nor is it a claim that we should ignore the long - term responses of the system to current forcing, nor does it mean that
paleoclimate has nothing to tell us about future changes (au contraire!).
The match of his model to actual
paleoclimate is impressive, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's right — especially since Huybers made no suggestion about
what the physical mechanism is which brings this about.
The MBH98 and MBH99 papers are focused on
paleoclimate temperature reconstruction and conclusions therein focus on
what appear to be a rapid rise in global temperature during the 1990s when compared with temperatures of the previous millennium.
Honestly, I do not think this a big deal, and certainly not a cause for litigation — but
what is not possible in
paleoclimate science these days?
Physical science is highly constrained by
what is known about energy budgets,
paleoclimate and radiative transfer in gases, and alternate hypotheses are hard to come by as the skeptics well know by now after a decade of trying.