When sea surface temperature changes — or anomalies — in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceed a certain threshold, it becomes an El Niño.
Not exact matches
Kevin Trenbeth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the study didn't account for
changes in
sea surface temperatures, which are the main drivers of
changes in the position of the rain belts (as is seen during an El Nino event,
when Pacific warming pushes the subtropical jet over the Western U.S. southward).
The first image, based on data from January 1997
when El Nio was still strengthening shows a
sea level rise along the Equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean of up to 34 centimeters with the red colors indicating an associated
change in
sea surface temperature of up to 5.4 degrees C.
When this model is run with a standard, idealised global warming scenario you get the following result for global
sea surface temperature changes.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (
when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year
when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
When the reconstructions try to determine
changes in
sea surface temperature they seem to be most reliable because SST has less fluctuation and is more pertinent to the problem
How hurricanes develop also depends on how the local atmosphere responds to
changes in local
sea surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically on the cause of the
change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently
when local
sea surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus
when sea surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.25, 26,27,28
Surface air temperature change in winter and summer when using doubled CO2 sea surface temperatures as calculated in the GISS (DBL CO2) and GFDL (ALT) models circa early - mid
Surface air
temperature change in winter and summer
when using doubled CO2
sea surface temperatures as calculated in the GISS (DBL CO2) and GFDL (ALT) models circa early - mid
surface temperatures as calculated in the GISS (DBL CO2) and GFDL (ALT) models circa early - mid-1980s.
Also we well know how ENSO events cause
changing CO2 content in atmosphere
when tropical
sea surface temperature is
changing.
How hurricanes develop also depends on how the local atmosphere responds to
changes in local
sea surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically on the cause of the
change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently
when local
sea surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus
when sea surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.18, 25,26,27 So the link between hurricanes and ocean
temperatures is complex.
The new research uses multiple runs of a coupled ocean - atmosphere computer model to simulate global
temperature changes in response to climate forcing
when the
sea surface temperature (SST) in the el Niño region follows its historically observed values.
What he does not do, and should have done is plotted the
change in the effect over time against some emperical measure of either
temperature or
surface heat content (either OHC directly for
when we have the data, or glacial extents, or
sea levels).
Keep in mind,
when reading Smith et al (2008), that the NCDC removed the satellite - based
sea surface temperature data because it
changed the annual global
temperature rankings.
When heavy rainfall probabilities were next investigated in ensembles of two atmospheric general circulation models, run with and without anthropogenically - induced
sea surface temperature changes, results were model - dependent.
With regard to proxy studies, same basic questions, are these direct or passive correlations, what evidence that tree ring core thickness depends only on
temperature (what about precipitation, cloud cover, volcanic activity,
sea surface temperatue
changes,
sea current
changes, solar irradiance
changes, cloud cover, etc.) How are these variables accounted for
when analysis of ice cores is completed, or for that matter
when computer models, and / or proxy studies are completed.