With high market valuations and an ever - lasting bull market, one might get scared to invest in equities (stocks) and stay on the sidelines.
You seem pretty bearish on the Internet stocks
with high market valuations.
Not exact matches
• PE exits continue to slow: We've got all the ingredients for a seller's
market — record
high valuations, PE firms
with lots of capital, a healthy corporate
market and a growing, aging portfolio company inventory.
Until very recently, tech stocks have been racing pretty
high, pulling stock
markets up
with them as their
valuations stretch.
A share sale by San Francisco - based Dropbox, one of a closely watched group of
high - profile private tech companies
with multibillion - dollar
valuations, would follow Snap Inc.'s disappointing step into the public
markets.
, I'd say that one obvious qualifier would be public
marketing technology companies
with $ 1 billion or
higher valuations, such as HubSpot and Marketo.
At longer time frames, the basic relationship generally still holds:
Higher U.S. stock
market valuations are associated
with lower future returns.
Notice that to the extent that
high interest rates were typically associated
with depressed
market valuations, they were also typically associated
with elevated subsequent
market returns.
To the extent that lower Treasury yields are even weakly associated
with higher equity
valuations, recognize that this effect is also expressed over time as lower subsequent stock
market returns.
While stocks have a terminal value beyond a 10 - year period, the effects of interest rates and nominal growth on those projections largely cancel out because
higher nominal GDP growth over a given 10 - year horizon is correlated
with both
higher interest rates and generally lower
market valuations at the end of that period.
While there is a general tendency for
high interest rates to be associated
with depressed
valuations and above - average subsequent
market returns, and for low interest rates to be associated
with elevated
valuations and below - average subsequent
market returns, the relationship isn't extremely reliable or linear.
Our
valuation models are the best in the business at identifying the stocks
with the
highest and lowest
market expectations.
«Many participants reported that their contacts had taken the previous month's turbulence in stride, although a few participants suggested that financial developments over the intermeeting period highlighted some downside risks associated
with still -
high valuations for equities or from
market volatility more generally,» the minutes said.
With the S&P 500 within about 8 % of its highest level in history, with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of hist
With the S&P 500 within about 8 % of its
highest level in history,
with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of hist
with historically reliable
valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns;
with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of hist
with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in
market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors;
with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of hist
with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year
highs; and
with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of hist
with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify
market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 % of history.
A
market low here and now would compete
with the 2002 - 2003 lows for the
highest valuation observed at a cyclical
market trough.
«While our statistical findings suggest that diversity does coincide
with better corporate financial performance and
higher stock
market valuations, we acknowledge that we are not able to answer the causality question,» it notes.
But to help
with the explanation I'd like to put down some markers of typical Internet pre-money
valuations done in major US
markets (San Fran, NY, LA, etc.) while acknowledging that San Fran deals are often
higher valuations due to increased competition amongst investors.
I'm just pointing out my gut feel for approximate ranges of deals that I've seen
with Silicon Valley having the
highest valuations, NY / LA / Boston / Boulder / Seattle having
valuations in a slightly lower range but comparable and sometimes significantly lower prices in
markets that don't have a healthy venture
market.
While other historically reliable metrics carry a very similar message,
Market Cap / GVA has the
highest correlation
with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns than any other
valuation ratio we've examined across history.
While Loop Capital
Markets didn't see it as a breakout quarter, which might justify a
higher valuation, JMP Securities said its
valuation for the company is roughly in line
with the...
The
valuation is neither entirely unreasonable nor unusually appealing, but compared to the fairly
high valuation of the
market currently, it may make a good choice for a stock
with a decent dividend yield (3.43 %) and consistent dividend growth history.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already
high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for
market losses, particularly given that the current bull
market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at
higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve
with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other
market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled
with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
With market setting all time
highs, it's getting difficult to find companies at fair
valuation.
With valuations very rich, bullish sentiment
high, and stocks generally overbought, there's a certain momentum to the
market that makes it likely - in terms of probability - that stocks will be
higher in the weeks ahead.
We continue to see opportunities in Europe, but
with the
market have moved broadly
higher and
valuations looking fair, in our view, stockpicking is likely to become ever more important in 2018.
The «canonical»
market peak typically features rich
valuations, rising interest rates, often a reasonably extended and «flattish» period where, despite marginal new
highs, momentum has gradually faded while internal divergences have widened, and finally, an abrupt reversal in leadership, from a preponderance of new
highs over new lows (both generally large in number) to a preponderance of new lows over new
highs,
with the reversal often occurring over a period of just a week or two.
Rather, it means that investors will receive returns consistent
with relatively
high starting
valuations — nominal total returns for the stock
market of around 5 % -6 %.
With one week left in April I decided to deploy some fresh capital into a
market that has been very, very generous as of late in terms of giving us much better buying opportunities in many «name brand» stocks that have been previously deemed untouchable because of low yields,
high valuations and relatively speaking,
high prices.
With the exception of the 2007
market peak, most of the bull
markets of the past 25 years witnessed a peak
valuation on the S&P 500 of roughly 20x to 22x 12 - month trailing earnings,
higher than the S&P 500's 17.5 x
valuation today.
A quantifiable response to investor's becoming less selective are the number of private companies which become attracted to the
high valuations the stock
markets appetite may award them
with, and the lower quality threshold the stock
market demands for an Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Money is there (stadium
with highest pricing per seat in England; commercial &
marketing deals, UCL, TV deal, club
valuation); one of the best league in the world of football, a great city & manager.
And it's reported to be shooting for an IPO soon,
with hopes of reaching a
valuation as
high as $ 6.7 B. Rocket Internet's strategy is to copy ideas that work in certain
markets and build the same exact business model in regions that haven't yet been explored.
On the subject of
valuations, I believe that the peak level of earnings seen in the past
market cycle was somewhat
high, so I'd agree
with Bill Gross at PIMCO in the sense that we're not likely to see that level of earnings as the «norm.»
On
valuations, it is important to note that the
market entered February
with multiples at multi-year
highs.
The Firm seeks to invest in
high - quality businesses at low
valuations,
with the goal of generating outperformance over a full
market cycle while managing the level of risk.
Periods of low volatility often coincide
with higher levels of
valuation, and that sort of low economic variability can help to generate stock
market bubbles.
With stock
market valuations rather
high, could it make sense to adopt such a strategy as an alternative to indexing?
With the exception of the 2007
market peak, most of the bull
markets of the past 25 years witnessed a peak
valuation on the S&P 500 of roughly 20x to 22x 12 - month trailing earnings,
higher than the S&P 500's 17.5 x
valuation today.
As John Hussman noted in Inflation, Correlation, and
Market Valuation, low inflation may often coincide
with high multiples, but they don't justify them.
When the liquidity premium is
high, the asset is said to be illiquid, and investors demand additional compensation for the added risk of investing their assets over a longer period of time since
valuations can fluctuate
with market effects.
Given what his price / peak earnings tells him about the
market's current
valuation (stomach - churningly
high) and his perception that several of the supporting investment elements that have so far made
valuations irrelevant are starting to break down, what's he doing
with the portfolios in his care?
The proposal, led by a mutual fund
with investments in Oracle, points out that multiple studies show that board and managerial diversity are linked to better corporate performance and
higher stock
market valuations.
In a whipsaw period like that which we have had from 1998 to the present, it makes a lot of difference, because many investments during the bubble era put fresh capital into the
market at a time of
high valuations,
with buybacks predominating as
valuations troughed.
As Visteon exits chapter 11, the near to medium - term upside will likely be driven by a combination of 1) a couple of imminent,
high probability catalyst's that should force the
market to assign this company
with a much more appropriate
valuation on an absolute basis and relative to its peers and 2) various operational and financial enhancements that the company recently undertook while in bankruptcy should continue to yield visible and increasingly positive operating results for the foreseeable future.
In Table 3, of the 96 tests for factors, only 2 have the «wrong» sign,
with higher valuation pointing to (negligibly)
higher subsequent returns; both instances of the «wrong» sign are in the emerging
markets, for which we have shorter history, and are for the low beta factor, for which the current
valuations, in the 99th percentile, are quite extreme relative to history.
i never agreed
with your philosophy of timing the
market for
valuations of stocks, but I do agree with your calculators that show a higher SWR based on V
valuations of stocks, but I do agree
with your calculators that show a
higher SWR based on
ValuationsValuations.
Equity
valuations are now extremely
high,
with global equity
markets having added close to US$ 9.5 tn in
market capitalisation over the course of 2018.
Are the current large
market leaders enjoying
higher stock prices simply because of their position as larger weights in the overall
market funds (into which vast sums of money are pouring every month), rather than because they are good profitable companies
with fair
valuations?
For example,
market capitalization to GDP is a long - term stock
valuation indicator
with a
high correlation (0.89) to subsequent 10 - year returns.
While other historically reliable metrics carry a very similar message,
Market Cap / GVA has the
highest correlation
with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns than any other
valuation ratio we've examined across history.