With the rate of home ownership now close to 70 %, and
with household debt at a record high, much of the financial health of Canadian households is inextricably linked to home values, making it the kind of dominant concern that not only affects household finances, but consumer psychology and confidence.
Rising balances and credit limits may be fine for now, but
with household debt rising faster than GDP, there could be consequences in the next few years.
«However, the long - run negative effects of debt eventually outweigh their short - term positive effects,
with household debt accumulation ultimately proving to be a drag on growth.»
With the rate of home ownership now close to 70 %, and
with household debt at a record high, much of the financial health of Canadian households is inextricably linked to home values, making it the kind of dominant concern that not only affects household finances, but consumer psychology and confidence.
Benjamin Tal, an economist with CIBC, reported in a study earlier this year that heavy borrowers,
those with household debt - to - gross income ratios above 160, accounted for 34 % of all borrowers compared to 26 % in 2007.
Not exact matches
«While China's total
debt growth slowed notably in 2017
with a drop in the non-financial corporate
debt - to - GDP ratio largely offset by rising
household and financial sector
debt,» the group said.
Mortgages aren't the only
debt Canadians are saddled
with, however, and the rates on credit cards, car loans, and home equity lines of credit could tick up as well, further increasing a
household's overall carrying costs.
The house - price bubble, combined
with record levels of
household debt, represent the biggest threat facing the Canadian economy; the sooner real - estate markets mellow and Canadians lower their
debt burdens, the better.
«We continue to see the
household sector as accident - prone,
with a complacency toward
debt which could prove disruptive to the economy,» wrote HSBC Canada's chief economist recently.
Forget about
household spending:
with debt at record levels, consumer spending on new goods and services will be restrained.
«When house prices declined, ushering in the global financial crisis, many
households saw their wealth shrink relative to their
debt,» its authors observed, «and
with less income and more unemployment, found it harder to meet mortgage payments.»
Comments: «We are entering the fifth year post «The Great Contraction»
with considerable progress made in deleveraging the financial and
household sectors; however, the most complex stage - stabilizing public sector
debt - remains a formidable challenge.
Among those
households with credit card
debt, the average owed is $ 15,863, according to a May analysis from NerdWallet.com using government data.
But for most
households, high
debt is the disease, not the cure, and adding more
debt to «stimulate spending» is like trying to put out a fire
with gasoline.
At least some
households would use the funds to pay down
debt, meaning the money would flow to the banking sector anyway, but
with one critical difference:
household debt would actually decline, leaving
household balance sheets in better shape and owing less interest every month.
«International research has found that highly indebted
households cut back their spending to a greater degree in response to declining house prices than those
with lower
debt levels,» he said in a letter to the House finance committee this month.
A 2015 NerdWallet study found that the average U.S.
household with debt carries $ 15,310 in credit card
debt and $ 132,086 in total
debt.
Subjects touched upon by Poloz during his speech and the ensuing round of questions also included fostering ties
with the emerging economies of India, China, and Brazil, and the growth in
household debt among Canadians.
That includes an average $ 16,748 among
households with credit card
debt, and $ 49,905 among student loan borrowers.
By contrast,
debt for the middle class —
households with incomes from $ 43,501 to $ 69,500 — rose 12.5 %.
Examination of data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances — the central bank's effort to examine the financial conditions of American families — by two Northeastern University scholars shows that
households with more student
debt are less likely to start businesses than other
households.
BMO says 84.4 per cent of
households headed by young people owe some form of
debt, compared
with 82 per cent of the same
households in 1984.
He says the higher rates have helped keep the accumulation of
household debt lower than it otherwise would have been had Canada continued
with government belt - tightening approaches of the past.
The Fed's most - recent Survey of Consumer Finances, released in October, showed an increase in the number of U.S.
households with credit card
debt: 43.9 % in December 2016 compared
with 38.1 % in December 2013.
Households with any kind of
debt owe $ 133,568 (including mortgages), on average, the data analysis found.
And when you remove
debt - free
households from the equation — people
with either no
debt or no credit to speak of — the average
debt load was more than double that, at $ 15,609.
It sounds tempting — especially
with the Bank of Canada warning last week that
household debt continues to grow at dangerous speeds in this country.
Basically, he proposes that the Feds send a check for $ 2000 each to the bottom 80 % of taxpaying
households (all 175 million of them)
with the caveat that the entire $ 2000 must be spent on
debt reduction (student loans, credit cards, mortgages etc.).
To date,
households have been coping reasonably well
with the higher
debt levels.
While the central bank is reluctant to raise rates too fast
with $ 2.1 trillion in outstanding
household debt, increases are inevitable.
The only indicator that has grown apace
with GDP for the middle class is
household debt.
I believe that Canada's high house prices in relation to incomes, combined
with record
household debt levels and overinvestment in residential construction, will cause a severe correction in the real estate market.
This brings me to a third plot line: that is, how we deal
with the higher level of
household debt and higher housing prices, especially in a world of more normal interest rates.
Risks associated
with the Consumer Discretionary sector include, among others, apparel price deflation due to low - cost entries, high inventory levels and pressure from e-commerce players; reduction in traditional advertising dollars; increasing
household debt levels that could limit consumer appetite for discretionary purchases; declining consumer acceptance of new product introductions; and geopolitical uncertainty that could impact consumer sentiment.
Even achieving the present trajectory of domestic demand that we have, which has left the economy
with a bit of spare capacity, has involved some net rise in the ratio of
household debt to GDP.
The problem
with this solution is that it is politically attractive (no wealth transfers from the elite to ordinary
households) but it does not fundamentally address China's
debt problem, but rather simply rolls it forward.
Meanwhile, delinquency rates for each form of
household debt declined,
with about 8.1 percent of outstanding
debt in some stage of delinquency, compared
with 8.6 percent the previous quarter.
Millennials have grown up in the shadow of the Great Recession, are saddled
with higher education
debt and housing costs, and are forming
households later.
«The bank expects trend growth in
household credit to moderate further,
with the
debt - to - income ratio stabilizing near current levels.»
If there's one word that defines the Canadian economy at the moment, it's uncertainty — what
with the shaky housing market, towering
household debt loads and, of course, a certain orange - hued world leader rattling the sabre of trade wars.
He turned to Tiff Macklem, the bank's senior deputy governor (who is, incidentally, getting more attention these days as a leading candidate to succeed Carney when he departs next June to take over the Bank of England) to flesh out the
household debt picture
with details.
However, I suspect that spending by the average
household, strapped
with a record level of
debt, will continue to contract — especially spending on discretionary items.
With many
households increasingly reliant on
debt and a lower savings rate, some families may need to bank the incremental income from the recent tax cut.
The speed
with which China's GDP growth slows in 2013 will tell us a lot about how determined Beijing is to rebalance the economy in such a way that growth is driven more by higher
household income and consumption and less by investment funded by rising government and government - related
debt.
«A slight decline in real - estate related balances, consistent
with broader housing market developments, contributed to a flat quarter for total outstanding
household debt,» Donghoon Lee, senior economist at the New York Fed, said in a statement.
Until we understand this do not expect the global crisis to end anytime soon, except perhaps temporarily
with a new surge in credit - fueled consumption in the US (which will cause the trade deficit to worsen) and more wasted investment in China (which, because it is financed
with cheap
debt, which comes at the expense of the
household sector, may simply increase investment at the expense of consumption).
In other words,
households with greater income and assets may be able to take on more
debt.
However, this is changing, and the increase in the level of
household debt over the past decade is a major shift,
with significant knock - on implications for consumption.
With household and government balance sheets still weighed down by a large
debt overhang, demand for new loans is extremely weak despite near zero short and long term interest rates.
According to ValuePenguin, * the average balance - carrying
household had more than $ 16,000 in
debt as of May 2016,
with total outstanding consumer
debt hitting $ 3.4 trillion, including $ 929 billion in revolving
debt.