Your recent Continuing 30 - Year
Withdrawal Rate analysis suggests somewhere between a withdrawal rate of 4.4 % and 8 % with some caveats (you may have less buying power in year 20 or you may only have 50 % balance at year 30).
Safe
Withdrawal Rate analysis is only beginning to take advantage of such distinctions.
Around the time I wrote that article, I discovered the flaws in the Old School retirement studies that led to my launching of the New School of Safe
Withdrawal Rate Analysis.
Not exact matches
VIP banking services vary among banks and might include stock and portfolio
analysis, reduced interest
rates on loans and no - fee ATM
withdrawals.
A 4 %
withdrawal rate has a good chance of lasting 30 years according to
analysis, but its chances of lasting 50 years aren't good enough for me.»
That has motivated me to lessen the difficulty of data
analysis when using the Retire Early Safe
Withdrawal [
Rate] Calculator.
Also, when we talk about HSWR [Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates], we are talking about the future and making probabilistic
analysis based upon valuations which determine safe, reasonably safe, 50/50, likely failure, etc..
Your
analysis focuses on a continuing
withdrawal rate that keeps up with inflation.
Thus, my interest in safe
withdrawal rate (SWR)
analysis, particularly the analytically valid approach to SWR
analysis you put forward at this site.
How about the financial
analysis and the Safe
Withdrawal Rate Series?
(It's important to note at this juncture that in the previous
analyses I often assume a constant 4 %
withdrawal rate to provide simple examples of what percentage of a portfolio would be held in each investment type.
One way to deal with the unknown
withdrawal tax
rate is to make it the «conclusion» instead of the «given» in your
analysis.
For some long but informative
analysis of
withdrawal rates, this Ph.D. turned blogger is right up your -LSB-...]
-LSB-...] about the financial
analysis and the Safe
Withdrawal Rate Series?
That's why we did the
analysis and came up with four key metrics: a yearly savings
rate, a savings factor, an income replacement
rate, and a potentially sustainable
withdrawal rate, to help you create your retirement road map.
Notes starting from April 18, 2007 Notes starting from May 22, 2007 covered the following topics: Interesting Quote, Price Peaks, An Illusion of Numbers, Subtle Observation about Dividend Capture, Building On a 45 - Year Retirement, Starting at 5 %, Starting at 5 % with Risk, Evidence - Based Technical
Analysis, Rock Bottom
Withdrawal Rate, More Interesting Quotes, Monitoring the Dividend Blend, Automatic Allocator, Back of the Envelope: Dividend Blend, Dividend Rule of Thumb, Excellent Discussions, Honeymoon, Dividend Blend Rule of Thumb, Scenario Surfer Status Report, Morningstar?
I am hoping to make some improvements to my past work, such as allowing asset allocations and savings
rates to vary over time in my «safe savings
rates»
analysis, looking more at the role of international diversification in retirement portfolios, accounting for taxes in retirement
withdrawal studies, and investigating more about lifecycle or target - date funds for both the accumulation and retirement phases.
If I say «no,» I contradict my claim that valuations need to be taken into consideration when calculating safe
withdrawal rates and when performing all others sorts of investment
analyses.
The majority of financial advisors state similar number, which is also called the holy grail of the retirement
analysis: the 4 % sustainable
withdrawal rate.
Though moderate inflation during the past decade has resulted in current
withdrawal rates that are a bit less for the 2000 retiree than for some retirees in the 1960s, this is hardly reassuring with further
analysis based on the required future asset returns needed for sustainability.
y = HSWR80 Calculated
Rate (percent) and x = percentage earnings yield = 100 / [P / E10] 1941 - 1950 y = 0.7318 x + 2.3723 1941 - 1960 y = 0.9635 x + 0.3354 1941 - 1970 y = 1.0644 x - 0.5469 1941 - 1980 y = 0.7842 x + 0.9624 y = HSWR80 Calculated
Rate (percent) and x = percentage earnings yield = 100 / [P / E10] 1951 - 1960 y = 1.201 x - 1.2943 1951 - 1970 y = 1.1936 x — 1.2958 1951 - 1980 y = 0.649 x + 1.562 y = HSWR80 Calculated
Rate (percent) and x = percentage earnings yield = 100 / [P / E10] 1961 - 1970 y = 0.6831 x + 1.1174 1961 - 1980 y = 0.5835 x + 1.5399 Confidence Limits (approximately 90 %, add and subtract these values) Degrees of freedom... Confidence Limits 10... 1.71 % 20... 1.63 % 30... 1.60 % 40... 1.59 % 50... 1.58 % 60... 1.58 % January 2000 Results January 2000
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1941 - 1950 2.33 % 4.04 % 5.75 % 1941 - 1960 0.91 % 2.54 % 4.17 % 1941 - 1970 0.28 % 1.88 % 3.48 % 1941 - 1980 1.16 % 2.75 % 4.34 % More January 2000
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1951 - 1960 (0.26) % 1.45 % 3.16 % 1951 - 1970 (0.20) % 1.43 % 3.06 % 1951 - 1980 1.44 % 3.04 % 4.64 % Even More January 2000
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1961 - 1970 0.97 % 2.68 % 4.39 % 1961 - 1980 1.24 % 2.87 % 4.50 % January 2003 Results January 2003
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1941 - 1950 3.86 % 5.57 % 7.28 % 1941 - 1960 2.91 % 4.54 % 6.17 % 1941 - 1970 2.50 % 4.10 % 5.70 % 1941 - 1980 2.80 % 4.39 % 5.98 % More January 2003
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1951 - 1960 2.24 % 3.95 % 5.66 % 1951 - 1970 2.29 % 3.92 % 5.55 % 1951 - 1980 2.80 % 4.40 % 6.00 % Even More January 2003
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1961 - 1970 2.39 % 4.10 % 5.81 % 1961 - 1980 2.44 % 4.07 % 5.70 % This Week's 2004 Results This Week's 2004
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1941 - 1950 3.29 % 5.00 % 6.71 % 1941 - 1960 2.16 % 3.79 % 5.42 % 1941 - 1970 1.67 % 3.27 % 4.87 % 1941 - 1980 2.19 % 3.78 % 5.37 % More of This Week's 2004
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1951 - 1960 1.31 % 3.02 % 4.73 % 1951 - 1970 1.36 % 2.99 % 4.62 % 1951 - 1980 2.29 % 3.89 % 5.49 % Even More of This Week's 2004
Rates (Safe, Calculated and High Risk) 1961 - 1970 1.86 % 3.57 % 5.28 % 1961 - 1980 2.00 % 3.63 % 5.26 % Safe
Withdrawal Rate Comparisons January 2000 1941-1950 2.33 % 1941 - 1960 0.91 % 1941 - 1970 0.28 % 1941 - 1980 1.16 % 1951 - 1960 (0.26) % 1951 - 1970 (0.20) % 1951 - 1980 1.44 % 1961 - 1970 0.97 % 1961 - 1980 1.24 % January 2003 1941-1950 3.86 % 1941 - 1960 2.91 % 1941 - 1970 2.50 % 1941 - 1980 2.80 % 1951 - 1960 2.24 % 1951 - 1970 2.29 % 1951 - 1980 2.80 % 1961 - 1970 2.39 % 1961 - 1980 2.44 % This Week 2004 1941-1950 3.29 % 1941 - 1960 2.16 % 1941 - 1970 1.67 % 1941 - 1980 2.19 % 1951 - 1960 1.31 % 1951 - 1970 1.36 % 1951 - 1980 2.29 % 1961 - 1970 1.86 % 1961 - 1980 2.00 % Calculated
Rate Comparisons January 2000 1941-1950 4.04 % 1941 - 1960 2.54 % 1941 - 1970 1.88 % 1941 - 1980 2.75 % 1951 - 1960 1.45 % 1951 - 1970 1.43 % 1951 - 1980 3.04 % 1961 - 1970 2.68 % 1961 - 1980 2.87 % January 2003 1941-1950 5.57 % 1941 - 1960 4.54 % 1941 - 1970 4.10 % 1941 - 1980 4.39 % 1951 - 1960 3.95 % 1951 - 1970 3.92 % 1951 - 1980 4.40 % 1961 - 1970 4.10 % 1961 - 1980 4.07 % This Week 2004 1941-1950 5.00 % 1941 - 1960 3.79 % 1941 - 1970 3.27 % 1941 - 1980 3.87 % 1951 - 1960 3.02 % 1951 - 1970 2.99 % 1951 - 1980 3.89 % 1961 - 1970 3.57 % 1961 - 1980 3.63 % High Risk
Rate Comparisons January 2000 1941-1950 5.75 % 1941 - 1960 4.17 % 1941 - 1970 3.48 % 1941 - 1980 4.34 % 1951 - 1960 3.16 % 1951 - 1970 3.06 % 1951 - 1980 4.64 % 1961 - 1970 4.39 % 1961 - 1980 4.50 % January 2003 1941-1950 7.28 % 1941 - 1960 6.17 % 1941 - 1970 5.70 % 1941 - 1980 5.98 % 1951 - 1960 5.66 % 1951 - 1970 5.55 % 1951 - 1980 6.00 % 1961 - 1970 5.81 % 1961 - 1980 5.70 % This Week 2004 1941-1950 6.71 % 1941 - 1960 5.42 % 1941 - 1970 4.87 % 1941 - 1980 5.37 % 1951 - 1960 4.73 % 1951 - 1970 4.62 % 1951 - 1980 5.49 % 1961 - 1970 5.28 % 1961 - 1980 5.26 %
Analysis: Calculated
Rates There are two effects that cause these predictions to vary.
In a simple empirical
analysis, he showed how a 4 percent initial annual
withdrawal rate from the portfolio, subsequently increased by the
rate of inflation (or decreased by the
rate of deflation), could be sustained for more than 30 years from an investment portfolio evenly and consistently allocated between stocks and bonds (50/50).
A naïve
analysis would compare $ 1000 in a non-registered account and show that after say 200 % capital growth you have $ 2465 left after paying a relatively light capital gains tax, while in a RRSP all the
withdrawals (including the principal) are taxed at your full marginal
rate, so you'd only have $ 1394 of your $ 3000 after paying 53.53 % in tax.
To obtain a more conservative estimate of the effect of implementing therapy we conducted an intention to treat
analysis in which we assumed that all
withdrawals in the cognitive behaviour therapy group did not remit and all
withdrawals in the control groups remitted (that is, remission
rates of 129/218 and 75/182, respectively).