I'm going to be a guest on Good Morning Texas next Monday April 11th to talk
about Bubbles of LOVE DFW and Parental Alienation Awareness.
What
about the bubbles of methane they just found in the Arctic ocean?
Not exact matches
Nevertheless, recent media reports
about the apparent boom - bust
of some Chinese bike - sharing companies, for instance, have fueled
bubble speculation.
In early 2004, as American house prices roared higher and there came dire warnings from some quarters
about the existence
of a
bubble — accompanied,
of course, by strident denials from banks, most economists and the mortgage and real estate industries — Ben Bernanke (then still a governor before he became Fed chairman) addressed the problem
of what to tell the American people.
Achieving that unworldly valuation in such a short time has Butterfield fielding lots
of questions lately
about tech
bubbles and whether these sudden fortunes are built on solid foundations or merely the giddiness
of a moment.
VCs like Bill Gurley and Chamath Palihapitiya have been warning
of a tech
bubble burst and urging startups to think
about profit early on.
Much
of the rest
of the interview is spent fear mongering
about a
bubble in the bond market and its inevitable collapse:
The housing
bubble and subsequent meltdown wasn't just
about exotic mortgage practices, it was also
about a policy mandate to encourage homeownership that got out
of hand.
However, when it comes to speculating on value
of cryptocurrency, they worry
about this becoming a
bubble and a source
of problem for educated investors.
«If you think
about the creation
of asset
bubbles, that's always what happens,» Ariely says.
As the rest
of the country worries
about the slow pace
of economic recovery, the tech world frets
about whether there's a new start - up
bubble.
Cathcart didn't talk
about any
of the potential down - sides
of this approach, such as the «filter
bubble» effect that can keep users from seeing potentially important topics because they don't fit the platform's pre-conceived notions
of what that user is already interested in.
Click on each
of the
bubbles, below, to learn more
about them.
The long - lasting success
of Amazon is one thing; the quick rise
of Uber seems to suggest were are in the middle
of another
bubble about to explode.
Using new gas - injection technology that creates gas
bubbles in the middle layer
of the bottle wall, the company reduced the amount
of plastic that goes into each container by 15 %, which works out to
about 275 tonnes
of plastic a year.
You hear a lot
of talk these days
about the commercial real estate
bubble, and how it'll be the next to burst.
The two most discussed concerns this past year were
about diversity
of viewpoints we see (filter
bubbles) and accuracy
of information (fake news).
Posts
about cryptocurrency have exploded on Reddit, according to data analyzed by MarketWatch, prompting yet more speculation that the assets are a
bubble about to pop, or entering the mainstream — depending on which side
of the fence you stand.
But even if you're not sure
about the solution his company is offering, his point
about the need to unclog the information bottlenecks that allow
bubbles to form around top management is a good spur to get any entrepreneur thinking
about how to access the unvarnished opinions
of his or her employees.
Noting that the value
of tech stocks at the height
of the dot - com
bubble was many times the size
of the current cryptocurrency market (with a total value
of about $ 519 billion), Citi's report conceded that it may be a while before the crypto
bubble bursts: «
Bubbles can build in plain sight, be duly identified, and prove highly durable for a period measured in years.»
After the
bubble burst in 2000, I was talking
about the ideas in Good to Great with some portfolio companies
of venture capitalists.
«Everyone talks
about getting to the end
of a
bubble, not just in American whiskey, but in all whiskey,» says Hansell.
For co-founder Henry Blodget, the sale
of Business Insider caps a remarkable second act: A former securities analyst during the dot - com
bubble of the late 1990s, Blodget was charged with fraud in 2002 for publicly promoting stocks that he was privately skeptical
about.
On a recent Ventured podcast, I spoke with KPCB general partner Randy Komisar
about whether or not there's a tech
bubble and the consequences
of raising too much capital.
At first, Maes» favorite Black Mirror episodes were the ones that related the most closely to her own work in augmented reality, filter
bubbles and memory — like the «grain» episode
about the pitfalls
of total recall, or the twist ending in the Hololens - like «Men Against Fire.»
There is little doubt that his recent comments
about the pending risk
of a
bubble resonate with most experienced venture investors.
The implication
of Harari's argument3 is pretty hard to wrap one's head around.4 Take the term «tulip
bubble»: everyone knows it is in reference to a speculative mania that will end in a crash, even those like me — and now you — that have learned
about what actually happened in the Netherlands in the winter
of 1636.
The
bubbling interest comes as regulators grow increasingly worried
about debt levels and the capacity
of ordinary households to pay back big loans on expensive houses.
By way
of a comparison, this ratio peaked at
about 6.1 per cent in the U.S. in the mid-2000s at the height
of its housing
bubble, and toward the end
of the 1980s in Japan, when that country was nearing the end
of its own property boom.
In this respect, we need to think hard
about what we can do to prevent the type
of speculative
bubbles that occurred from causing so much damage in the future.
For all the headlines devoted to the event, you'd think this was a really big deal — either a signal that our economy has zoomed past the lingering aftereffects
of the Great Recession, or evidence
of a
bubble about to pop, as CNBC wondered a little while ago.
Yet by the late 1980s, when the real estate
bubble was still being inflated, household and corporate replacement costs
of buildings left land with only
about 28 percent
of total property values.
Meanwhile, the former governor
of the Bank
of Canada raised a red flag
about the «carbon
bubble,» Canada's premiers agreed to develop a Canadian energy strategy that would address climate change, and Elon Musk broke ground on his Gigafactory that will slash the costs
of electric vehicle batteries and, by extension, the cars themselves.
[16:00] Pain + reflection = progress [16:30] Creating a meritocracy to draw the best out
of everybody [18:30] How to raise your probability
of being right [18:50] Why we are conditioned to need to be right [19:30] The neuroscience factor [19:50] The habitual and environmental factor [20:20] How to get to the other side [21:20] Great collective decision - making [21:50] The 5 things you need to be successful [21:55] Create audacious goals [22:15] Why you need problems [22:25] Diagnose the problems to determine the root causes [22:50] Determine the design for what you will do
about the root causes [23:00] Decide to work with people who are strong where you are weak [23:15] Push through to results [23:20] The loop
of success [24:15] Ray's new instinctual approach to failure [24:40] Tony's ritual after every event [25:30] The review that changed Ray's outlook on leadership [27:30] Creating new policies based on fairness and truth [28:00] What people are missing
about Ray's culture [29:30] Creating meaningful work and meaningful relationships [30:15] The importance
of radical honesty [30:50] Thoughtful disagreement [32:10] Why it was the relationships that changed Ray's life [33:10] Ray's biggest weakness and how he overcame it [34:30] The jungle metaphor [36:00] The dot collector — deciding what to listen to [40:15] The wanting
of meritocratic decision - making [41:40] How to see
bubbles and busts [42:40] Productivity [43:00] Where we are in the cycle [43:40] What the Fed will do [44:05] We are late in the long - term debt cycle [44:30] Long - term debt is going to be squeezing us [45:00] We have 2 economies [45:30] This year is very similar to 1937 [46:10] The top tenth
of the top 1 %
of wealth = bottom 90 % combined [46:25] How this creates populism [47:00] The economy for the bottom 60 % isn't growing [48:20] If you look at averages, the country is in a bind [49:10] What are the overarching principles that bind us together?
At Berkshire Hathaway's recent annual shareholders meeting, an investor asked Buffett
about the relevance
of two popular measures
of stock market value: 1) market cap - to - GDP, which Buffett once heralded as «probably the best single measure
of where valuations stand at any given moment» and 2) the cyclically - adjusted price - earnings ratio (CAPE), which was made famous by Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller and was seen as accurately predicting the dot - com
bubble and the housing
bubble.
As with any new venture there was a learning curve and after a lot
of reading
about the value
of cryptocurrencies and whether they are in a
bubble, are a currency, have any real value, etc..
It was in Kindleberger's book that I also first learned
about the impact
of the Franco - Prussian War
of 1870 - 71 and the subsequent reparations payments on global financial markets (which I discuss extensively in a February blog entry) and in unleashing the final stage
of a global liquidity
bubble that ended with the various panics
of 1873.
Advice: CNBC was criticized for its coverage
of the dot com
bubble during the late 90's because it took more
of a cheerleader role than as an objective news source.Now, the network is required to report whether analysts it has on its shows do banking business with the stocks they're talking
about.
Multiply that by the millions or billions that venture capitalists were throwing at this
bubble, and it's easy to see why big money managers were in a technology euphoria and not too worried
about the underlying fundamentals
of these companies.
You talked
about animal spirits, which I have heard you talk
about before, and I have also been supportive
of that notion in the sense
of capital markets because
bubbles often flow from exuberance and optimism and all those characteristics.
Of course, there was much talk in the late 1990s
about the possible coming tech bust - Tech
Bubble 1.0 - as the sector's shares escalated to lofty heights, until they finally crashed.
You can look around and find evidence
of froth if you look hard enough — I wrote
about Silicon Valley last week — but as far as
bubbles go, this is junior varsity stuff.
But with the surge
of interest has come concerns
about the bitcoin market being in a
bubble.
Until the technology
bubble burst, people were euphoric
about the pioneers
of the fledgling Internet in the 1990s, and figured the gains in technology stocks would never end.
Similarly judgements
about bubbles need to be reached in the context
of the level
of neutral rates.
After the
bubble burst,
about half
of them owed more on their homes than they were worth.
About the author: JS Kim is the Managing Director and Founder
of SmartKnowledgeU, a fiercely independent research, consulting and education firm that focuses on gold and silver asset investment strategies as a means
of countering the damaging effects
of rapidly devaluing fiat currencies worldwide and price - distorted stock market and asset
bubbles created by Central Bankers.
Let's talk very little
about real estate, and a lot
about people's behaviour and the anatomy
of bubbles throughout history.
Major construction industry figures have warned
about a the risk
of a real estate
bubble, particularly in eastern Bulgaria in the next few years, according to a reports followed up by Sofia News Agency, Novinite.
«I think both are
bubbles,» he said
of bitcoin and ether, but «if I were going to be wrong
about one
of these, it would be bitcoin.»