«In practice, the Fed cares a lot
about GDP growth.
Not exact matches
While Canada's economy as a whole struggles to move forward —
GDP growth is expected to hit around 2.3 % this year — the country's fourth most populous province will grow at
about 3.7 %, according to the Royal Bank of Canada.
As a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) observes, «Uncertainty
about future exchange rates and
GDP growth reduces flows into equities.»
KERNEN: But the one thing most are bringing up — and then I want to tell you
about — if you didn't see the Jamie Dimon and the Lloyd Blankfein interview, I want to just tell you what they said
about the potential for
GDP growth...
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said China 2017
GDP growth was expected to be
about 6.9 percent, with foreign exchange reserves rising.
A sharp sell off in the equity market «exerts a significant drag on world
growth» in the period that follows, according to Deutsche Bank, with real
GDP reduced by
about 0.5 percentage points.
There are two main reasons for the commodity pullback, says de los Reyes: China's
GDP growth has slowed from
about 11 % a year to single digits, and supply has finally caught up with demand.
In recent years, China single - handedly accounted for
about 15 per cent of global
GDP and half of global
growth — namely by sucking up the world's supplies of raw materials and using them to build everything from high - speed railways to forests of apartment towers to house its 1.3 billion people.
There is, of course, a great deal of skepticism
about the 7 % real
GDP growth rate that China has reported, but we should remember that in the first quarter, nominal
GDP growth was much lower, 5.8 %.
I'm looking for
GDP growth at
about 1 %, probably even lower at times.
We estimate that the oil price shock, on its own, took
about 1 1/4 percentage points off
GDP growth in the first half of the year.
Private sector economists have now revised down their forecasts of real
GDP growth for 2015 by
about 0.6 - percentage point.
Private sector economists have now revised down their forecasts of real
GDP growth for 2015 by
about 0.6 - percentage points, while the IMF cut its from 2.2 % to just 1.5 %.
At longer horizons, the 6.3 %
growth rate that we've assumed for nominal
GDP over the coming years will begin to bail investors out given enough time, and as a result, our projection for 10 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns peeks its head up above zero, at
about 2.4 % annually from current levels.
With strong investment
growth and an expected improvement in exports, our forecast for the economy overall is that annual
GDP growth will pick up modestly during 2006 to
about 3 1/4 per cent.
It is only when credit
growth begins to decelerate much more rapidly than nominal
GDP growth that we can begin to talk hopefully
about China's moving in the right direction, and it is only when credit
growth falls permanently below the
growth rate of the economy's debt - servicing capacity that China will have adjusted.
Right now the fund, which has tended to short larger stocks, is cautious
about the switch from small and mid-cap stocks to large caps as «investors chase safer
growth options as expectations of higher global
GDP growth is priced in».
... China has targets of
GDP growth around 7.5 percent and a consumer price index (CPI) increase of
about 3.5 percent in 2014, with 10 million more urban jobs to keep the urban unemployment rate at a maximum of 4.6 percent.
The job market is particularly solid, and real US
GDP growth continues to wiggle
about its long - term 2 % trend.
While there is a strong correlation between
growth in gross domestic investment and
growth in real
GDP, the slope of that relationship is only
about 0.2, meaning that even if the
growth rate of real gross domestic investment was driven from the recent
growth trend of zero all the way back to the previous post-war
growth rate of 3.5 %, the overall impact on real
GDP growth would only be
about 0.7 % annually, placing the level of U.S. real
GDP about 2.8 % higher 4 years from today than it would otherwise be.
Healthcare prices have risen by
about 6 - 8 % annually since 1970, almost double the baseline
GDP growth rate.
While the assumptions
about the future unemployment rate may be affected by policy, the fact is that slower U.S. population
growth, coupled with an aging population, place substantial limits on labor force
growth, which will leave U.S.
GDP growth almost entirely dependent on changes in productivity.
What I like
about the model I have described above is that it doesn't allow analysts to hide their implicit assumptions
about credit
growth,
GDP growth, and the relationship between the two.
The speed with which China's
GDP growth slows in 2013 will tell us a lot
about how determined Beijing is to rebalance the economy in such a way that
growth is driven more by higher household income and consumption and less by investment funded by rising government and government - related debt.
Now, my understanding of your position is that you made that original prediction based on the belief that the PRC would be instituting reforms to deleverage aggressively and transfer wealth to the consumer (such that the incorrect prediction was more that you were overly optimistic
about the PRC's willingness to head off these systematic risks) and that your current prognosis of ~ 3 %
GDP growth has an entirely separate causative element; that is to say, your previous prediction was based on the idea the PRC would be enacting reforms to ward off systematic risks, whereas your current estimation of
GDP growth is instead based on the drag produced by these very systematic risks the PRC has failed to deal with.
This, along with weaker U.S.
GDP growth, is why NXP shares are down
about 1 % year - to - date while all three major indexes have moved higher.
In the last two years as the bull argument has been pummeled into reality by the surge in debt, the persistent failure of consumption
growth to close the gap with
GDP growth, and the sharp slowdown in overall
growth, the mood abroad has turned increasingly bearish, to the point that many people are speaking
about a China collapse and the horrible implications this will have for the rest of the world.
At a 4.1 % unemployment rate and labor force
growth now down to
about 0.5 %, the baseline expectation for real
GDP growth in the coming years is approaching just 1 % (0.5 % labor force
growth plus productivity
growth of
about 0.5 % annually).
For example, annualized real
GDP (gross domestic product)
growth has averaged only
about 2.2 percent since the end of the recession in 2009.
Although there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook, the Bank is projecting real
GDP growth will slow to
about 1 1/2 per cent and the output gap to widen in the first half of 2015.
There is no shortage of economists predicting China
GDP growth rates for 2017 from a top - down perspective, but what
about looking at matters from a bottom - up approach?
For all the talk
about «Euroboom»,
about one quarter of euro area
GDP growth in 2017 was driven by net trade.
Recent
growth in the U.S.
GDP came from stronger exports when just
about the whole world is in a big slowdown.
-LRB-...) For all the talk
about «Euroboom»,
about one quarter of euro area
GDP growth in 2017 was driven by net trade.
Conditions in the euro area remain disappointing, though they are probably consistent with modest
growth in
GDP in the first quarter of 2004,
about the same as in the two previous quarters.
While this indicates a slowing in the pace of
growth during 2004, as a share of
GDP investment is estimated to have risen to around 45 per cent in 2004, which is the highest level on record and
about as high an investment share as has been seen anywhere in the world.
Despite the fact that all the central banks have been woefully wrong
about nearly every single forecast they have made on
GDP growth, inflation and labor markets for decades, they enjoy an aura of infallibility which would be the envy of any medieval Pope because they succeeded in doing what governments by themselves were unable to do in 2008 - 9, namely stop and reverse the financial crisis.
«The nice thing
about my business and my universe is I can carve out some great ideas, where you have great earnings
growth, strong
GDP growth, and not have to worry so much
about what the Fed lift - off is going to do»..
Because public sentiment
about future economic conditions drives stock prices, the market frequently rises even before broader economic measures, such as gross domestic product (
GDP)
growth, begin to tick up.
Last year, for example, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that fiscal headwinds slowed the pace of real
GDP growth in 2013 by
about 1-1/2 percentage points relative to what it would have been otherwise.
After only modest
growth initially following the 2001 global recession, international trade in goods and services has rebounded strongly of late, increasing by
about 10 per cent in 2004, or approximately double the rate of
growth in world
GDP (Graph A1).
In 1985/86, for example, non-farm
GDP did not grow at all for a period of
about a year before
growth resumed and falls in unemployment recommenced.
In addition, a growing number of commentators, including senior representatives of some institutional investors, have expressed concern
about the impact of hedge fund activism, and associated increased debt and cuts in capital spending, on long - term corporate health, innovation, job creation and
GDP growth.»
However, during September some global institutions voiced concerns
about the speed at which China has accumulated debt — which has risen from 147 % of
GDP in 2008 to 255 % in March of this year according to the Bank for International Settlements — could hamper the country's ability to maintain its current level of
growth.
The US
GDP growth of
about 2 % is neither great nor a disaster.
Applying a 1.5 multiplier to account for the total destimulating effects as those dollars are saved, not spent, this means a reduction of
about one percentage point in real
GDP growth, from 3.6 % per annum in the 1982 - 2000 years to 2.6 %.
I should note that in each of these models, we're assuming a long - term
growth rate for cyclically - adjusted earnings, revenues, dividends, nominal
GDP and so forth of
about 6.3 % annually.
And over the past 12 months, we've seen average monthly job
growth at 168,000, which is
about what you'd expect given that kind of
GDP growth.
He is interest in
GDP growth and unemployment rate, which is what he should be worrying
about because that is his job!!
Without getting into a great deal of song and dance
about a side topic, I'll just say that I believe our
GDP growth would explode as companies rushed to establish operational headquarters in the US, and the changes in the individual income tax codes would have a chilling effect on both the Wall Street money churners (people would be rewarded for going long with their investments instead of shuffling money around to chase pennies) and the out - of - control executive compensation at the expense of the long - term health of the company.