Joey Mack will provide some surprising facts
about bond market returns, and provide guidance over how investors can participate in the top performing asset classes in Canada.
Not exact matches
Learn more
about the positive outlook the BlackRock Total
Return Fund portfolio management team has for
bond markets in 2018.
When
bonds yield 1.75 % for investment - grade
bonds, then it's difficult to turn that into a 5 % -10 %
return going forward... If he wants to argue against that, and talk
about Dow 5000 and bear and bull
markets, then he's welcome to, but he's pushing at windmills in my opinion, and he belongs back in his ivory tower.
However, the reaction of the
bond market is another story altogether, with yields on 10 - year Treasuries recently
returning to
about where they were when this year began.
Given that the
Market Climate in bonds continues to be characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action, the Strategic Total Return Fund continues to carry a muted duration of about 2 years, mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Secur
Market Climate in
bonds continues to be characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable
market action, the Strategic Total Return Fund continues to carry a muted duration of about 2 years, mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Secur
market action, the Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a muted duration of
about 2 years, mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
One thing that's markedly different
about bond markets, however, is the inherent asymmetry of potential
returns: The best a
bond can do is pull to par, but the worst it can do is default — taking your capital investment with it.
In
bonds, the
Market Climate was characterized by relatively neutral valuations and unfavorable market action, holding the Strategic Total Return Fund to a relatively limited duration of about 2.5
Market Climate was characterized by relatively neutral valuations and unfavorable
market action, holding the Strategic Total Return Fund to a relatively limited duration of about 2.5
market action, holding the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a relatively limited duration of
about 2.5 years.
So a portfolio that contains a balance of
market - tracking equities and
bonds will, history suggests, likely earn average
returns of
about 4 to 5 percent per year.
Interesting, I always felt bad (yes, even through the recent bear
market)
about putting 8 % into
bonds due to the low
returns, but this is reassuring.
I eventually cobbled together
about a dozen ETFs, covering everything from emerging
markets, to real -
return bonds, to U.S. small - cap value stocks.
The total
return on the Vanguard Total
Bond Market Index Fund was
about 3.5 % annually from 2004 through 2006.
But given today's low interest rates (recently
about 2.3 % for 10 - year Treasuries) and relatively rich stock valuations (Yale finance professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P / E ratio for the stock
market recently stood at 29.2 vs. an average of 16.7 since 1900), it would seem to strain credulity to expect anything close to the annualized
returns of close to the annualized
return of 10 % for stocks and 5 % for
bonds over the past 90 years or so, let alone the dizzying gains the
market has generated from its post-financial crisis lows.
From
about mid-April (see last vertical line), both the
bond and equity
markets have been falling, making it very difficult to make
returns whether you own
bonds, equities or both.
When we talk
about credit, we refer to the likes of investment grade
bonds (issued by more creditworthy companies), high yield
bonds (issued by less creditworthy companies, but offering more
return and income in exchange), and emerging
market bonds.
In Strategic Total
Return, we slightly increased our
bond market duration to
about 3 years on the spike in Treasury yields last week.
The
market is really worried
about rising interest rates, but this is actually a minor issue when it comes to future
bond returns.
Up until I read
about the buzz around Vanguard and it's lower MERs, I was planning on investing all of our money in the Complete Couch Potato portfolio as suggested in the 2011 Edition of the MoneySense Guide To The Perfect Portfolio: i.e. — Canadian equity 20 % iShares S&P / TSX Capped Composite (XIC) US equity 15 % Vanguard Total Stock
Market (VTI) International equity 15 % Vanguard Total International Stock (VXUS) Real estate investment trusts 10 % BMO Equal Weight REITs (ZRE) Real -
return bonds 10 % iShares DEX Real - Return Bond (XRB) Canadian bonds 30 % iShares DEX Universe Bond
return bonds 10 % iShares DEX Real -
Return Bond (XRB) Canadian bonds 30 % iShares DEX Universe Bond
Return Bond (XRB) Canadian
bonds 30 % iShares DEX Universe
Bond (XBB)
As stock investing generally requires a very detailed
market study and is a very volatile investment in terms of
return of investment, investors, especially the new investors out there are now turning to investing in
bonds, as
bond investments are safer than most of the other forms of investments and you need not constantly worry
about prices going high or low.
While I think it's reasonable to lower your expectations for
bond market returns and allow for higher volatility because of the level of rates, it seems to me that many of the fears
about fixed income are overblown.
And if the
market is wrong
about the interest rate change then the
bond could correct by 10 % and you'll just have to wait the full 10 years to earn your 2 % annual
return.
Sustained low interest rates have made it more difficult for your clients to generate income, while more volatility in the equity
markets has made them gun - shy
about banking on predictable
returns from stocks,
bonds and other traditional investments.