Jay and Venn - The SEC letter does not say anything
about bull and bear markets and it provides a very narrow exception to the new FAS 157 rules — much narrower than many have been calling for.
Not exact matches
When bonds yield 1.75 % for investment - grade bonds, then it's difficult to turn that into a 5 % -10 % return going forward... If he wants to argue against that,
and talk
about Dow 5000
and bear and bull markets, then he's welcome to, but he's pushing at windmills in my opinion,
and he belongs back in his ivory tower.
These risks are
about the same in
bull and bear markets.
Naples also seeks to educate Millennials
about Modern Portfolio Theory
and the importance of consistent contributions in a tax - free environment, as well as diversification
and rebalancing concepts to smooth long - term returns through
bear and bull markets.
I have no views
about whether a
bear market has started in stocks, because I don't really think in terms of
bull and bear markets (which can only be identified in hindsight).
Ned Davis Research has looked at many of the major
Bear markets worldwide for the past Century,
and found that they tend to last
about a third as long as the preceding
Bull.
Having seen the share
market's ups
and downs since he started buying shares in the 1960s, share
market 85 - year - old trader Frank Hirst knows a thing or two
about the
bears and the
bulls.
It's all
about secular
bull and bear markets.
In looking at all sides of the argument
about share repurchases, one could say that companies that were repurchasing their own shares during the
bull market of the 1990s looked smart as the value of their shares continued to go up,
and foolish a decade later in the
bear market of the 2000s as their shares declined in value.
An average
bear market within a «secular»
bear market period (a period generally
about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels
and achieve progressively lower levels over the course of 3 - 4 separate
bull -
bear cycles) is
about 39 %,
and wipes out
about 80 % of the preceding
bull market advance.
It's a good reminder that the average
bear market loss represents a run - of - the - mill
market retreat of
about 32 %
and wipes out more than half of the preceding
bull market advance.
-- Mike Williams, Founder
and Managing Partner at Alan Steel Asset Management, writing on 2/19/18
about a chart showing all the
bear markets (in orange)
and bull markets (in blue) since 1926.
What I also like was the quote
about how to gradually move from 75 % equities to 25 % starting in mid career - taking money off the table when there was a
bull market and standing pat when there was a
bear market.
We also might buy an ETF if we were very confident
about a
bull or
bear market move
and wanted to leverage the move by using an ETF that aimed for double the
market's move.
I made two quick runs with
Bull Bear Retirement Trainer B. Using what I have learned
about stock allocations
and valuations, I made it through 30 years OK withdrawing 5 % in today's (secular)
Bear Market.
This post is part 2 of last week's post
about the duration
and magnitude of all
bull market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database and the method adopted by Butler Philbrick Gordillo and Associates» post What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh A
bull market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database
and the method adopted by Butler Philbrick Gordillo
and Associates» post What the
Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh A
Bull Giveth, the
Bear Taketh Away.
Notice how it began at
about 1000
and ended at
about 800 while encountering several good cyclical
bull and bear markets.
In the article The psychology of
bear markets published in December 2009, during the brunt of the
bear market James Montier writes
about that the mental barriers to effective decision - making in
bear markets are as many
and varied as those that plague rationality during
bull markets but that they more pronounced as fear
and shock limits logical analysis.
Also everything I read so far
about CC ETF's say that they are a lot less volatile in
bear markets (+ according to my stats, they return more in
bull markets),
and CC strategies reduce risk, etc. etc. so I have a hard time understanding why it wouldn't be a good way to invest.
All it really shows is that I was able to look at past performance,
and come up with a window that would fit
about 50 % of the time in a
bull or
bear market.