Your notes
about century variation make it all the worse: not only did they delete the later «cool» data, they worked hard to cool down Briffa's earlier «warm» data.
Not exact matches
In the first chapter we opened up a discussion of what is meant by the term «resurrection», and found that this quickly led us to the traditional conception of the resurrection of Jesus, a view often known as «bodily resurrection», which, with minor
variations, has dominated Christian tradition for
about eighteen
centuries.
The view of Moses» possible indebtedness, in these terms, to Jethro has been proposed with many
variations for
about a
century, but it remains only hypothesis.
The study found that in the 18th and 19th
centuries,
about four to 18 per cent of the
variation between individuals in lifespan, family size and ages at first and last birth was influenced by genes, while the rest of the
variation was driven by differences in various aspects of their environment.
The changes in these regions can account for
about 90 percent of the observed
variation in the river's streamflow over the last
century, with one to four months lead - time.
Based on the novel by Shûsaku Endô
about a pair of 17th
century Jesuit priests who travel to Japan to locate their missing mentor, «Silence» attempts to tackle big ideas like faith and sacrifice but never really makes it beyond its opening argument, like a broken record playing different
variations of the same scene over and over again.
For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say
about the Lewis glacier on Mt. Kenya: «A decrease in the annual precipitation on the order of 150 mm in the last quarter of the 19th
century, followed by a secular air temperature rise of a few tenths of a degree centigrade during the first half of the 20th
century, together with associated albedo and cloudiness
variation, constitute the most likely cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years.»
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr
about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th
century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar
variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past
centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
But as we started to try to piece together the puzzle of what those data were telling us, they also were telling us
about natural
variations in temperature in the past and how they compared to the warming trends of the past
century.
Milloy further claims that the observed global warming of 0.6 - 0.8 C over the 20th
Century is «well within the natural
variation in average global temperature, which in the case of the Arctic, for example, is a range of
about 3 degrees Centigrade».
The IPCC 2001 report states «Several recent reconstructions estimate that
variations in solar irradiance give rise to a forcing at the Earth's surface of
about 0.6 to 0.7 Wm - 2 since the Maunder Minimum and
about half this over the 20th
century... All reconstructions indicate that the direct effect of
variations in solar forcing over the 20th
century was
about 20 to 25 % of the change in forcing due to increases in the well - mixed greenhouse gases.»
that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions
about what will happen in the future.that
century - scale
variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.»
Ice cores show atmospheric CO2
variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a
century to millenium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since
about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2.
... we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth
century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~ 65 - year period) oscillatory
variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be
about 0.08 deg C per decade since ~ 1980.
What
about measuring
variations in nutrients, oxygen isotopes... hey, mass spec each ring — maybe we can determine if the plant has been engulfed in volcanic smoke, forest fire smoke, been bombarded variably by cosmic rays, ultraviolet, cosmic microwave background... lets get this 19th
Century botanists pursuit up to speed!
Although the I.P.C.C. allowed for the possibility that
variations in sunlight could have ended the «Little Ice Age,» a period of cooling from the 14th
century to
about 1850, our data argues strongly that the temperature rise of the past 250 years can not be attributed to solar changes.
Even while identifying some of the observed change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase in surface temperature over the past
century, or
about 1 mm per year sea level rise in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider
variation in rainfall patterns, the document notes that no firm link between the do...
In Wu et al. (2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth
century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~ 65 - year period) oscillatory
variation and we estimated the contribution of the former [secular warming] to be
about 0.08 °C per decade since ~ 1980.
After all it takes a
variation of nearly a hundred W / m ^ 2 (locally at the NP) to give us ice age cycles, and we fret
about a few W / m ^ 2 per
century.
This is achieved through the study of three independent records, the net heat flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the sea - level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th
century, and the sea - surface temperature
variations... We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles
variations is
about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI
variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, although without pointing to which one.
The well - recorded history of the most recent
century or so happened to show even more unusual stability, compared with what new evidence was revealing
about severe
variations in earlier millennia.
In Wu et al. (2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth
century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~ 65 - year period) oscillatory
variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be
about 0.08 C per decade since ~ 1980.
An analysis of the historical data suggests a strong correlation between the solar activity and the natural climate
variations on centennial time - scales, such as the colder climate during the Maunder (
about 1650 − 1700 AD) and Dalton (
about 1800 − 1820 AD) minima as well as climate warming during the steady increase in solar activity in the first half of the twentieth -
century (Siscoe 1978; Hoyt & Schatten 1997; Solomon et al. 2007; Gray et al. 2010).
Most notably, that warming in the 21st
century would be 1 - 3 degrees Celsius, as opposed to «well below normal year - to - year
variation» which, as Revelle had frequently cited in his own lectures, was less than
about 0.2 degrees Celsius.
On the time - varying trend in global - mean surface temperature ``... we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth
century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~ 65 - year period) oscillatory
variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be
about 0.08 deg C per decade since ~ 1980.»
This is because the warming over the past
century is much larger than what could have come
about due to natural
variation.