No disrespect, as I am sure you know far more
about chaotic systems, but your reply sounds like too much time working with models.
One thing you can not predict
about chaotic systems is exactly when they will switch between attractors, nor can you predict when a new attractor will appear.
However, from what I have read
about chaotic systems it would seem that it is futile to search for simple causes and effects.
Cutting a hole in the pool table won't win favour at your local bar, but it can teach us more
about chaotic systems such as the climate or planetary motion
Not exact matches
Studies of extrasolar planetary
systems have shown that many distant
systems likely experienced similar
chaotic collisions early in their formation, too, which led to doubts
about the amount of liquid water on some of these worlds.
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Chaotic System
It's been two years since any sort of solid news
about the game and I think with the introduction of the Xbox 1.2 / Next, that
system may have the power needed to realize the kind of
chaotic environments that Microsoft wanted in Crackdown 3 without needed to leverage cloud computing.
Model are a hypothesis
about how the physical processes interact in a
chaotic system.
If you do not believe that
system with
chaotic behaviour can be modeled in this way then you have far better things to worry
about.
Now it is true that in a
chaotic system that has deterministic origins, a small perturbation can be immeasurably amplified in its effects, which is what Tom is talking
about.
One does not have to be skeptical
about the science of global warming to be skeptical of excessively «certain» long term predictions that involve weather and climate, the ultimate
chaotic system that can not be accurately predicted.
These parameters are guesses, because there just isn't enough understanding of the complex and
chaotic climate
system to parse out their different values, or to even be clear
about cause and effect in certain processes (like cloud formation).
In that sense it is improper to talk
about «
chaotic systems» because there exists no such thing.
Spence — my point
about long - distance correlation such as ENSO was not regarding
chaotic systems per se — obviously temporal chaos often involves spatially extended attractors, which is very likely a good description of ENSO.
The
chaotic system only has a certain amount of energy to play with, so I think 0.5 C is
about the most you will see, and that won't be sustained for long before a reversal.
If you were to produce a
chaotic model using the above, I would venture a prediction that the above former were the massive attractors
about which we could make some decent predictions
about the future but that the latter human produced CO2 inserted into our atmosphere would leave us with hopelessly inadequate and wrong predictions because CO2 contributed by man is not an attractor of any significance in the
chaotic Earth climate
system nor is CO2 produced by man a perturbation that would yield any predictive ability.
Due to the sensitivity of
chaotic systems to initial state, by careful adjustment of the initial parameters you can come up with just
about any answer you want to support just
about any policy you want to promote.
The model output is evidence of the result of the many processes working together, much as the Pythagorean theorem provides evidence
about the hypoteneuses of a large set imperfectly studied right triangles; or long term simulations of the planetary movements based on Newton's laws provide evidence that the orbits are
chaotic rather than periodic; or simulations provide evidence that high - dimensional nonlinear dissipative
systems are never in equilibrium or steady state even with constant input.
The climate is too complex to make calls
about the future, and if you think that's just a denier talking then I'll refer you to the IPCC TAR WG1 14.2.2.2, which explains that the future state of a coupled non-linear
chaotic system (the climate) can not be predicted.
Nor I am claiming that this 60 year cycle is «perfectly» sinusoidal: I am talking
about physics of complex non-linear
chaotic systems, not trigonometry.)
But there are also similarities in that both the climate and returns on financial assets are complex,
chaotic systems about which making predictions
about future events are fiendishly difficult.
Chaos is, however, is
about observations of the
system behaving in ways typical of the broad class of deterministically
chaotic systems.
James McWilliams, of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California Los Angeles, says that «sensitive dependence and structural instability are humbling twin properties for
chaotic dynamical
systems, indicating limits
about which kinds of questions are theoretically answerable.»
It was not
about climate change at all — it was simply
about the utter futility and absurdity of trying to make long - term predictions in
chaotic systems with more unknowns than knowns..
«AOS models are members of the broader class of deterministic
chaotic dynamical
systems, which provides several expectations
about their properties (Fig. 1).
What we are talking
about is a coupled non-linear
chaotic system and chyaotic bifurcation that applies to rainfall as much as temperature.
It takes
about 20 years to evaluate because there is so much unforced variability in the
system which we can't predict — the
chaotic component of the climate
system — which is not predictable beyond two weeks, even theoretically.
Although it is generally not possible to predict a specific future state of a
chaotic system (there is no telling what temperature it will be in Oregon on December 21 2012), it is still possible to make statistical claims
about the behavior of the
system as a whole (it is very likely that Oregon's December 2012 temperatures will be colder than its July 2012 temperatures).
«Finally, Lorenz's theory of the atmosphere (and ocean) as a
chaotic system raises fundamental, but unanswered questions
about how much the uncertainties in climate - change projections can be reduced.
Then, in a
chaotic system you can find just
about anything you look for:)
As James McWilliams said — «Sensitive dependence and structural instability are humbling twin properties for
chaotic dynamical
systems, indicating limits
about which kinds of questions are theoretically answerable.
I have complained
about baby physics quibbles distracting from a realistic understanding of complex,
chaotic and non-equilibrium Earth
systems.
Sensitive dependence and structural instability are humbling twin properties for
chaotic dynamical
systems, indicating limits
about which kinds of questions are theoretically answerable.
If you actually believe that we know enough
about the forces and energies involved in the
chaotic, hugely complex climate
system to actually construct a real physics - based model, I'm afraid you simply don't understand the science (as the RC fanboys love to say).