It takes
about 20 years to evaluate because there is so much unforced
variability in the system which we can't predict — the
chaotic component of the climate system — which is not predictable beyond two weeks, even theoretically.
It is a confirmation of the results also found by other studies before, with varying methodology, that the recent alleged «pause» is very likely, to a large degree, nothing more than just a temporary downward deviation from the median trend by chance, mostly due to the
chaotic ENSO
variability imprinting itself on the global temperature trends, like the «acceleration» between 1992 and 2007 (with a trend of
about 0.25 - 0.3 deg.