Sentences with phrase «about climate model projections»

Your statement on mistaken assumption # 5 about climate model projections being theoretically based rather than empirically based is well made.

Your statement on mistaken assumption # 5 about climate model projections being theoretically based rather than empirically based is well made.

Not exact matches

The researchers then used a mathematical model that combined the conflict data with temperature and rainfall projections through 2050 to come up with predictions about the likelihood of climate - related violence in the future.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

By linking climate models to water cycle models, we can also generate projections about how climate change is likely to influence Montana's water resources.

Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections.

Raw climate model results for a business - as - usual scenario indicate that we can expect global temperatures to increase anywhere in the range of 5.8 and 10.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.2 to 5.9 degrees Celsius) over preindustrial levels by the end of the century — a difference of about a factor of two between the most - and least - severe projections.

John, On the «Presentation: Precautionary Principle...» thread you told me that you think it's «unhelpful to conflate discussion of climate - science issues like the modelling of SO2, about which none of us here know very much, with discussion of economic projections, where we can have a useful discussion.»

What's lost in a lot of the discussion about human - caused climate change is not that the sum of human activities is leading to some warming of the earth's temperature, but that the observed rate of warming (both at the earth's surface and throughout the lower atmosphere) is considerably less than has been anticipated by the collection of climate models upon whose projections climate alarm (i.e., justification for strict restrictions on the use of fossil fuels) is built.

Of the many inane arguments that are made against taking action on climate change, perhaps the most fatuous is that the projections climate models offer about the future are too uncertain to justify taking steps that might inconvenience us in the present.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science say incorporating observational data of «Earth's top - of - atmosphere energy budget» shows the «warming projection for the end of the twenty - first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius)... relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.»

I believe the most of the hysteria about climate change will eventually subside when reality refuses to conform to model projections.

People who've been following the debate about global warming closely will be aware that the economic modelling used in projections of future climate change by the IPCC has been severely criticised by former Australian Statistician Ian Castles and former OECD chief economist David Henderson.

In my experience this is certainly the case if you talk about the simulations as predictions rather than projections — the climate models are not predicting what the weather will be on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the climate based on emission scenarios and initial conditions.

'' it is suggested that the strength of the tropical low - cloud feedback predicted by the IPSL - CM5A model in climate projections might be overestimated by about fifty percent.»

There is a lot of talk about climate models not being validated sufficiently, which is obviously not possible until their projections come to pass.

2: Our Changing Climate, Key Messages 5 and 6).4, 10 A range of model projections for the end of this century under a higher emissions scenario (A2), averaged over the region, suggests about 5 % to 20 % (25th to 75th percentile of model projections) increases in winter precipitation.

In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty - first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two - standard - deviation spread (− 1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.»

However, there remains uncertainty in the rate of sea ice loss, with the models that most accurately project historical sea ice trends currently suggesting nearly ice - free conditions sometime between 2021 and 2043 (median 2035).12 Uncertainty across all models stems from a combination of large differences in projections among different climate models, natural climate variability, and uncertainty about future rates of fossil fuel emissions.

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, the future projection of temperature rise made by climate models (upon which the sea level rise projections are based) have been shown by a growing body of scientific research to be overestimated by about 40 percent.

Similarly, the climate scenarios were based on 2xCO2 equilibrium GCM projections from three models, where the radiative forcing of climate was interpreted as the combined concentrations of CO2 (555 ppm) and other greenhouse gases (contributing about 15 % of the change in forcing) equivalent to a doubling of CO2, assumed to occur in about 2060.

This means, for any given projection, the internal state of the model is not known to reveal anything about the underlying physical state of the true terrestrial climate.

It's all about climate models, and temperature projections at the step-wise annual level.

In contrast, climate projections done with climate models are what - if statements about the statistical properties of the system for a given configuration (which can be changing in time) of external climate drivers.

Arctic sea - ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models - about 40 percent greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Report.

This should, in theory, lead to more realistic projections for the future, but many of the climate modellers I spoke to were keen to point out that simulating the climate with more complex models may well lead to greater uncertainty about what the future holds.

Various approaches to improve the precision of multi-model projections have been explored, but there is still no agreed strategy for weighting the projections from different models based on their historical performance so that there is no direct means of translating quantitative measures of past performance into confident statements about fidelity of future climate projections.

However, using the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model climate projections, the hurricane model also projects that the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5 % during the 21st century in general agreement with previous studies.

Our estimates of key climate model uncertainties are constrained by observations of the climate system for the period 1906 - 1995, 7 and uncertainty in emissions reflect errors in measurement of current emissions and expert judgment about variables that influence key economic projections.

I should begin by disclosing that as a former project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, I was tasked with thinking about how to combine data from different climate models into probabilistic projections of regional climate change.

It is partly for this reason that climate change projections are made using climate models (see Learn about... computer models) that can account for many different types of climate variations and their interactions.

Asked by CNSNews about the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Easterbrook said they «ignored all the data I gave them... every time I say something about the projection of climate into the future based on real data, they come out with some [computer] modeled data that says this is just a temporary pause... I am absolutely dumfounded by the totally absurd and stupid things said every day by people who are purportedly scientists that make no sense whatsoeClimate Change (IPCC), Easterbrook said they «ignored all the data I gave them... every time I say something about the projection of climate into the future based on real data, they come out with some [computer] modeled data that says this is just a temporary pause... I am absolutely dumfounded by the totally absurd and stupid things said every day by people who are purportedly scientists that make no sense whatsoeclimate into the future based on real data, they come out with some [computer] modeled data that says this is just a temporary pause... I am absolutely dumfounded by the totally absurd and stupid things said every day by people who are purportedly scientists that make no sense whatsoever....

None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.

There is a large ongoing effort as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) to make projections about the future climate that will account both of these inflClimate Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) to make projections about the future climate that will account both of these inflclimate that will account both of these influences.