The only thing that has changed my opinion has been openly available empirical observation by objective scientists to answer
criticisms about climate models.
of the literature to highlight low estimates of climate sensitivity and use the divergence between climate models and measured temperatures to make conjectural
statements about climate models being too sensitive to CO2,
Although the study was primarily
about climate modeling for future climate variability, it was focused on the severe climate variation of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
RealClimate, the approachable scientific climate website run by professional climatologists, has responses to common Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ about climate models.
I find the following section immensely
telling about climate modeling: «The bottom line is that, although there has been some narrowing of the range of climate sensitivities that emerge from realistic models [Del Genio and Wolf, 2000], models still can be made to yield a wide range of sensitivities by altering model parameterizations.
In the Summary for Policymakers, the most - read section of its brand new Fifth Assessment Report (released back in late September), the IPCC had this to say
about climate model performance: