Not exact matches
Nate, a member of the FI Board of Directors, is the leader for the Landscape Ecology Team at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and has expertise
about decadal - scale
climate variability and ecosystem regime shifts.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data),
decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr
about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measure
climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
In terms of the risk this has never been
about decadal fine tuning, but
about (preventing) the longterm slide into an entirely different
climate the Earth hasn't seen for millions of years.
There has been a recent emphasis in
decadal - scale prediction, and also creating a marriage between
climate and fields such as synoptic - dynamic meteorology... something relatively new (and a different sort of problem, than say, estimating the boundary condition change in a 2xCO2 world); as Susan Solomon mentioned in her writing, a lot of people have become much more focused on the nature of the «noise» inherent within the
climate system, something which also relates to Kevin Trenberth's remarks
about tracking Earth's energy budget carefully.
«What's really been exciting to me
about this last 10 - year period is that it has made people think
about decadal variability much more carefully than they probably have before,» said Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist and former lead author of the United Nations»
climate change report, during a recent visit to MIT.
Models all produce natural variability, many of which show temperature flatlines over
decadal timescales, and given the wide importance of natural variability over < 10 year time scales and uncertain forcings, one can absolutely not claim that this is inconsistent with current thinking
about climate.
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The recent post here on WUWT
about the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a lot of folks claiming that the PDO is useful for predicting the future of the
climate... I don't think so myself, and this post is
about why I don't think the PDO predicts the
climate...
Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present - day
climate is
about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (
decadal) timescale.
Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped
about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by
climate models, and the longer term Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of
about 60 years.»
You can get a quick overview of definitions, and the performance of seasonal and
decadal climate predictions in these SPECS factsheets: Fact sheet # 6: Tropical Cyclone Forecasts (May 2015) Read more
about SPECS: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/ According to the SPECS Dissemination work package, the fact sheets will be two - page long documents that intend to introduce basic concepts of... Read More
Is Judith's statement
about it being «foolish» to think that ACO2 dominates the
climate on centennial (or
decadal) scale in contradiction to Lewis» 90 % CI that goes up to 3.0 °C per doubling (considering the magnitude of warming over the last 60 years or so projected out another 40 years)?
«In the oceans, major
climate warming and cooling and pH (ocean pH
about 8.1) changes are a fact of life, whether it is over a few years as in an El Niño, over decades as in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation, or over a few hours as a burst of upwelling (pH
about 7.59 - 7.8) appears or a storm brings acidic rainwater (pH
about 4 - 6) into an estuary.»
BBD: You're wrong
about the 70's — Mahlman lamented the failure of an agw signal to emerge from the
decadal noise at the NAS
Climate Forum in 1989.
Russell BBD: You're wrong
about the 70's — Mahlman lamented the failure of an agw signal to emerge from the
decadal noise at the NAS
Climate Forum in 1989.
And we did say we know something
about how much
climate goes up and down on you know a
decadal timescale, century timescales, and we can kinda add that on our Bell curve.
Granted, the trend of this period is a mere 1 / 3rd of the IPCC prediction of 0.2 C / decade, but what this tells us is the presence of
decadal trends might tell us almost nothing
about the
climate regime we are observing.
Translate the knowledge developed
about AMOC variability and predictability mechanisms into reliable
decadal climate forecasts.