Scott Grannis writes this week
about the equity risk premium, which I currently score as «high.»
this week
about the equity risk premium, which I currently score as «high.»
Merryn: One of the chapters in your book, or part of one of the chapters, is
about the equity risk premium, and you suggested it's higher than it should be, rationally, simply because of people thinking that stocks are much riskier than they actually are, because they look at short - term returns rather than long - term returns.
«The conversation
about equity risk premium, interest rates and inflation, we are coming full circle.»
Not exact matches
Constituent companies are chosen based on their score on two sets of measures: a quantitative assessment consisting of their return on
equity, balance sheet accruals ratio and financial leverage ratio; and a qualitative score derived from management's responses to a survey
about such topics as corporate governance,
risk and crisis management, customer relationships and tax strategies.
In some cases, a banker gets interested, but he or she expresses anxieties
about perceived
risks; a credit - line commitment might be offered, contingent upon the company's being able to carry out some type of
equity offering simultaneously.
«I think the real key is
equities are all
about confidence, and... my analysis is probably based on Trump's policies toward trade and immigration, which are very much a
risk to economic growth, while his other policies on tax and fiscal spending are positive for growth.
OIC was formed in 1992 to educate investors and their financial advisors
about the benefits and
risks of exchange - traded
equity options.
Equity markets now appear to be somewhat more relaxed
about the
risk of a trade war.
Put simply, even taking account of current interest rate levels, and even assuming that stocks should be priced to deliver commensurately lower long - term returns, we currently estimate that the S&P 500 is
about 2.8 times the level at which
equities would provide an appropriate
risk premium relative to bonds.
What excites me
about equity crowdfunding is that people can typically make very small bets (say $ 500), while they learn
about what I've found to be the highest
risk and most interesting asset class on the planet: startups.
What
about the argument that the
equity -
risk premium (the premium that investors demand over
risk - free assets such as government bonds) has fallen close to zero because of greater economic stability?
In the 21st century, the ex ante
equity risk premium will therefore have a geometric (arithmetic) mean of
about 4.1 % (5.4 %) for the U.S., 2.4 % (3.7 %) for the U.K. and 3.0 % (4.0 %) for a size - weighted world index.
In their April 2018 paper entitled «Market
Risk Premium and
Risk - free Rate Used for 59 Countries in 2018: A Survey», Pablo Fernandez, Vitaly Pershin and Isabel Acin summarize results of a March 2018 email survey of international finance / economic professors, analysts and company managers «
about the
Risk Free Rate and the Market
Risk Premium (MRP) used to calculate the required return to
equity in different countries.»
But we don't see a reason to be overly concerned
about equities, as long as the U.S. economy keeps churning along at its current pace, though there is greater
risk for bonds.
We won't pound the tables
about imminent recession until we observe fresh weakness in the
equity market (even a 7 - 8 % market loss would sharply raise our probability estimates), but it's important to recognize that financial
risks are already fully developed, and as in other bubbles, one usually finds «catalysts» to blame for a collapse only well after the downturn is in full - swing.
The
equity risk premium is fun to know
about just in case you're invited to a Bank of England cocktail party, but it can also help shape your portfolio...
In other words, if cash historically returned
about 1 % a year, then an
equity risk premium of +4 % would imply an average return from
equities of 5 %.
I also have
about $ 250,000 in
equities, purely for diversification and
risk management.»
At current levels, Japanese
equities are both absolutely and relatively cheap; the
equity risk premium is
about 7.8 % and the forward price / earnings ratio is less than 13.
What we're seeing here — make no mistake
about it — is not a rational, justified, quantifiable response to lower interest rates, but rather a historic compression of
risk premiums across every risky asset class, particularly
equities, leveraged loans, and junk bonds.
FINRA, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, has posted an Investor Alert
about the complexities and
risks of
equity - indexed annuities, which any potential buyer ought to read.
Going back to your post a couple days ago where Bob Brown gave his forecast for
equity returns of
about 6 % (3.2 % after tax and inflation), if you give up another 2 % + in expense ratio, an investor might as well put their money in long term certificates of deposit and eliminate
risk.
Where we are concerned
about volatility
risks in global
equity, we can focus exposure on stocks that exhibit the «quality» factor.
Anecdotally, broad knowledge
about the
risk of systematic selling kept many investors fearful and waiting on the sidelines (both in
equity and volatility markets).
How should investors think
about risk in
equity markets right now?
In their October 2015 paper entitled «Huge Dispersion of the
Risk - Free Rate and Market Risk Premium Used by Analysts in 2015», Pablo Fernandez, Alberto Pizarro and Isabel Acín summarize assumptions about the risk - free rate (RF) and the market / equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
Risk - Free Rate and Market
Risk Premium Used by Analysts in 2015», Pablo Fernandez, Alberto Pizarro and Isabel Acín summarize assumptions about the risk - free rate (RF) and the market / equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
Risk Premium Used by Analysts in 2015», Pablo Fernandez, Alberto Pizarro and Isabel Acín summarize assumptions
about the
risk - free rate (RF) and the market / equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
risk - free rate (RF) and the market /
equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.S.).
Debate still lingers
about how «A Nation at
Risk» addresses
equity.
What I garnered from some studies (which I wrote
about in my report on the optimal foreign allocation) is that the upper limit of the suggested range (50 %) is based on
risk assessments of the foreign markets as well as their position / representation in the global
equity market.
The authors conducted 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with three different sets of assumptions
about stock and bond returns,
equity risk premia as well as inflation rates, 121 lifetime asset allocation glide paths, annual withdrawal rates of 4 % and 5 %, and time horizons of 20, 30 and 40 years.
For example, if you have a very high tolerance for
risk — perhaps you have a spouse with a full pension so you're less concerned
about stock market volatility — you might increase the level of
equity you hold in your retirement savings.
About Risk:
Equity fund performance is sensitive to stock market volatility.
Over the last 45 years a 70 % worldwide
equity / 30 % fixed income portfolio has
about the same return as a 100 % S&P; 500 or total market index, at one - third less
risk.
My colleagues Russ Koesterich and Terry Simpson talk
about ways to ballast your portfolio with bonds to balance out
equity risk.
If you are wondering
about the contrast between
equity risk and operating
risk, the answer is simple.
In response to «Shorting VXX with Crash Protection», which investigates shorting iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - Term Futures (VXX) with crash protection to capture the
equity volatility
risk premium safely, a subscriber asked
about instead using a long position in ProShares Short VIX Short - Term Futures (SVXY).
Also, the author has his own theory
about the
risk, saying that it was a greater
risk to buy the house with a low down payment then have a double back - up for the loan; the
equity in the house and the port folio at the same time.
These funds focus on long - term growth and are perfect for investors with moderate
risk tolerance:
about 60 % of the holdings are a diversified mix of Canadian, U.S. and international
equities, with the remaining 40 % in bonds and cash.
They observe that replacing a beta - one
equity portfolio with a low - volatility portfolio reduces
risk without decreasing the overall
equity allocation: All the low - volatility portfolios» market betas are significantly below unity (
about 0.7 for the US strategies and lower for the global developed and emerging markets).
https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-portfolio-size-effect-with-bond-tent-in-retirement-red-zone/ Presumably then the
equity percentage after
about age 70 or so would be largely a function of how much
risk you can tolerate and if you can easily meet your financial income goals with a typical potential range of 20 % to 70 %
equities to select from.
Learn more
about many Veterans have been able to rebound their financial situations with new mortgage programs that consider lending to people in high
risk situations because of negative
equity, past bankruptcies, foreclosures and poor fico scores.
Investment returns: I've assumed 7 % nominal returns, which for a young investor (i.e.: someone in the age group where they would be
about to buy their first home) with a long time horizon and
risk tolerance to invest in a heavily
equity - weighted portfolio should be very realistic.
Finally, for those who are skittish
about potential volatility abroad, adding international bonds to the mix may help offset
equity risk, just as they tend to do in U.S. portfolios.
We often dream
about big vacations, better bike or car, a better home etc., instead of buying them on EMI's and becoming liable to banks, it would be more prudent to restrict yourself and live a frugal life and invest money in SIP (in
equity mutual funds) and buy all your dream home, car or bike or vacation etc. with the corpus at a better price without any
risk.
I'm talking
about a long event horizon here, so my current (mild) aversion to the US
equity market is more
about valuation & relative
risk / reward, rather than its long - term prospects.
Do that, and you can comfortably take advantage of your home
equity line of credit's low rate without worrying
about putting your home at
risk.
Honestly I am still confused
about time frame of my debit fund so simple answer is I put money in Debit fund to reduce
risk of my
equity part and there was not other reason.
Investing horizon — 5 - 6 years
Risk appetite - High Age 26 Plus I hold lumpsum in Canara Robeco Emerging
Equities — Regular Plan — Growth & L&T India Value Fund — Regular Plan — Growth of
about Rs. 20K.
Before the break we talked
about if you go bankrupt there's a cost, if you have
equity in your house for example that's potentially at
risk, if you have a job that earns over the government minimum then potentially you have to pay more.
To some degree the ongoing debate
about the precise level of the
equity risk premium is a bit of a red herring.