Scott Grannis writes this week
about the equity risk premium, which I currently score as «high.»
this week
about the equity risk premium, which I currently score as «high.»
Merryn: One of the chapters in your book, or part of one of the chapters, is
about the equity risk premium, and you suggested it's higher than it should be, rationally, simply because of people thinking that stocks are much riskier than they actually are, because they look at short - term returns rather than long - term returns.
«The conversation
about equity risk premium, interest rates and inflation, we are coming full circle.»
Not exact matches
Put simply, even taking account of current interest rate levels, and even assuming that stocks should be priced to deliver commensurately lower long - term returns, we currently estimate that the S&P 500 is
about 2.8 times the level at which
equities would provide an appropriate
risk premium relative to bonds.
What
about the argument that the
equity -
risk premium (the
premium that investors demand over
risk - free assets such as government bonds) has fallen close to zero because of greater economic stability?
In the 21st century, the ex ante
equity risk premium will therefore have a geometric (arithmetic) mean of
about 4.1 % (5.4 %) for the U.S., 2.4 % (3.7 %) for the U.K. and 3.0 % (4.0 %) for a size - weighted world index.
The
equity risk premium is fun to know
about just in case you're invited to a Bank of England cocktail party, but it can also help shape your portfolio...
In other words, if cash historically returned
about 1 % a year, then an
equity risk premium of +4 % would imply an average return from
equities of 5 %.
At current levels, Japanese
equities are both absolutely and relatively cheap; the
equity risk premium is
about 7.8 % and the forward price / earnings ratio is less than 13.
What we're seeing here — make no mistake
about it — is not a rational, justified, quantifiable response to lower interest rates, but rather a historic compression of
risk premiums across every risky asset class, particularly
equities, leveraged loans, and junk bonds.
In their October 2015 paper entitled «Huge Dispersion of the
Risk - Free Rate and Market Risk Premium Used by Analysts in 2015», Pablo Fernandez, Alberto Pizarro and Isabel Acín summarize assumptions about the risk - free rate (RF) and the market / equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
Risk - Free Rate and Market
Risk Premium Used by Analysts in 2015», Pablo Fernandez, Alberto Pizarro and Isabel Acín summarize assumptions about the risk - free rate (RF) and the market / equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
Risk Premium Used by Analysts in 2015», Pablo Fernandez, Alberto Pizarro and Isabel Acín summarize assumptions
about the
risk - free rate (RF) and the market / equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
risk - free rate (RF) and the market /
equity risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.
risk premium (MRP or ERP) used by expert analysts to value companies in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and U.S.).
In response to «Shorting VXX with Crash Protection», which investigates shorting iPath S&P 500 VIX Short - Term Futures (VXX) with crash protection to capture the
equity volatility
risk premium safely, a subscriber asked
about instead using a long position in ProShares Short VIX Short - Term Futures (SVXY).
To some degree the ongoing debate
about the precise level of the
equity risk premium is a bit of a red herring.
By this measure, however, both Canadian indexes look more fairly valued than the S&P 500, whose
equity risk premium stands at
about 2.6 per cent.