Lack of operating procedures, uncertainties
about future climate conditions, risks associated with moving plants outside their current ranges, and existing policies have hampered formal actions in forest management and conservation.
Since about year 2000, however, the upward tendency appears to have slowed or possibly stopped, raising
questions about future climate inputs to regional agricultural yields.
Yet even though I have significant experience and
knowledge about future climate change policy challenges, the CBAT model helps me visualize the significance of certain policy options facing the world.
The only prediction that should be made
about future climate trends is that it will exhibit sudden shifts upwards or downwards at the regional level but the direction that global temperature will take is not known with our present state of knowledge.
With a system as complex as Earth's climate, it is a daunting task for scientists to be able to make
projections about future climate changes and how it may affect the distribution of plants and animals.
But carbon market experts are speculating that the drop could also relate to uncertainty
about future climate policy, for which there could soon be a remedy.
To overcome communication barriers that stem from technical terms often used in scientific assessments, the AMS report proposes three pre-defined levels of certainty for communicating with user
communities about future climate impacts:
Modeling - based claims (or predictions)
about future climate often pertain to trends that can only be unequivocally observed on 10 - year to 100 - year timescales.
With all the talk this
week about future climate — the global warming imagined by IPCC crystal ball models, that is — the focus for many is rightly on the gulf between predictions and observations that have taken place so far.
Uncertainties
about future climate arise from a number of different sources (see Figure 13.2) and are discussed extensively throughout this volume.
The rapid melting of the Arctic sea ice, then, illuminates the difficulty of modelling the climate — but not in a way that brings much comfort to those who hope that
fears about the future climate might prove exaggerated.
That's why I have stopped listening to climate change experts because at the end of the day, they know little
more about future climate trends than the average Joe.
The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions
about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions.
From all the best available data and modeling, and
expectations about future climate, these are the kinds of fires and post-fire climates that we're going to see more of in the future,» said Brian Harvey of the University of Colorado Boulder.
The weather prediction model used in this research is advantageous because it assesses
details about future climate at a smaller geographic scale than global models, providing reliable simulations not only on the amounts of summer precipitation, but also on its frequency and timing.
«Fact: Most scientists don't believe the effect of human activities on climate is sufficiently well understood to make
predictions about future climate conditions, and many believe the modest warming that may occur would be beneficial.»
«The state of our
knowledge about future climate change is such that the degree of uncertainty and the level of ignorance precludes formulating a PDF of outcomes -LSB-...]»
In as much as none of the model scenarios can be validated, all predictions
about future climate conditions amount to nothing more that, «Wait to see if our predictions come true; you'll see then.
People here hopefully never jump to
conclusions about the future climate, because the future is always unknown, but may forget that arguing about whether 2014 was a new record or not is almost a lost cause..
However, these models obviously have severe limitations for longer time periods and that leads me to be very skeptical that unvalidated climate models can tell us
much about the future climate.