It informs
us about the global temperature change «in the pipeline» without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth's energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate.
And the actual scientific truth
about global temperature change is not difficult to determine, since all it takes to analyze temperatures is to download the NOAA / NASA satellite temperature datasets and then plot the measurements using Microsoft Excel.
It informs
us about the global temperature change «in the pipeline» without further change of climate forcings and it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth's energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the requirement for stabilizing global climate.
Not exact matches
«We know that with
global temperature about 0.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial, these
changes are already causing significant harm to life.»
In New York City, the average
temperature has increased
about four degrees Fahrenheit since 1880, and could get 10 degrees hotter by 2100, according to a study commissioned by the federally funded U.S.
Global Change Research Program.
Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will increase much faster than the
global average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate
change will be reached
about 20 years earlier for this part of the U.S. compared to the world as a whole.
In the current analysis, Bohr wanted to find out if people's particular political orientations and beliefs
about global warming
changed at all during periods of so - called
temperature anomalies, when
temperatures above or beyond the normal are experienced.
Some
global warming «skeptics» argue that the Earth's climate sensitivity is so low that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in a surface
temperature change on the order of 1 °C or less, and that therefore
global warming is nothing to worry
about.
Mike Wallace's talk was
about the «National Research Council Report on the «Hockey Stick Controversy»... The charge to the committee, was «to summarize current information on the
temperature records for the past millennium, describe the main areas of uncertainty and how significant they are, describe the principal methodologies used and any problems with these approaches, and explain how central is the debate over the paleoclimate record within the overall state of knowledge on
global climate
change.»
For example, the
global temperature change when we recovered from the last ice age averaged only
about 0.1 C per century (and descent into an ice age tended to be even slower)... whereas we are now looking at
changes greater than that happening in one decade.
``...
about 58 % of the general public in the US thinks that human activity is a significant contributing factor in
changing the mean
global temperature, as opposed to 97 % of specia lists surveyed.»
While the Arctic, as a whole, as risen at
about twice the
global rate, Antarctica, overall, has shown no significant
temperature change.
But because of the necessary caveats that must be applied due to the state of the science I am starting to feel unable to say much
about climate
change apart from: «The increase in CO2 will very probably cause an overall increase in
Global Average
Temperature.
The point
about heating (adding energy) vs warming (
temperatures going up) is a very good one — it might help if the scientists involved with the major
temperature series people look at (GISS, RSS, etc) also produced a
global surface energy
change index that accounted for things like melting ice, which absorb heat without raising
temperatures.
According to a recent article in Eos (Doran and Zimmermann, «Examining the Scientific consensus on Climate
Change `, Volume 90, Number 3, 2009; p. 22 - 23 — only available for AGU members — update: a public link to the article is here),
about 58 % of the general public in the US thinks that human activity is a significant contributing factor in
changing the mean
global temperature, as opposed to 97 % of specialists surveyed.
Which in fact makes me think of the issue raised by some skeptics
about our ability to reliably detect
global temperature changes of tenths of a degree in the past century.
[Response: I suspect another common confusion here: the abrupt glacial climate events (you mention the Younger Dryas, but there's also the Dansgaard - Oeschger events and Heinrich events) are probably not big
changes in
global mean
temperature, and therefore do not need to be forced by any
global mean forcing like CO2, nor tell us anything
about the climate sensitivity to such a
global forcing.
Re «Estimates of the drivers of
global temperature change in the ice ages show that the
changes in greenhouse gases (CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) made up
about a third of the effect, amplifying the ice sheet
changes by
about 50 % (Köhler et al, 2010).»
The new research is a regional climate study of historical sea level pressures, winds and
temperatures over the eastern Pacific Ocean and draws no conclusions
about climate
change on a
global scale.
We are thus not talking
about changes primarily in
global mean
temperature (these are small in the model results shown above).
Global temperature change is about half that in Antarctica, so this equilibrium global climate sensitivity is 1.5 C (Wm ^ -2) ^ -1, double the fast - feedback (Charney) sensit
Global temperature change is
about half that in Antarctica, so this equilibrium
global climate sensitivity is 1.5 C (Wm ^ -2) ^ -1, double the fast - feedback (Charney) sensit
global climate sensitivity is 1.5 C (Wm ^ -2) ^ -1, double the fast - feedback (Charney) sensitivity.
For a start, based on what we know
about the forcings and the observed evolution of
global mean
temperature, why would one expect climate
change to be a linear warming since 1880 in Moscow?
I regularly speak to public audiences
about climate
change (see http://www.andrewgunther.com/climate-
change/#talks for details), and use the NASA / GISS dataset to discuss
global average
temperature of the atmosphere.
[Response: The
global temperature change at the peak of the last ice age (
about 20,000 years ago) were
about 5 to 7 deg C colder than the present.
It is different for different datasets, but for
Global Mean Surface
Temperature (GMST) it turns out to be
about a 30 - year period centered on the point at which you are trying to determine what the rate of
change in GMST is.
In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the
global warming «community» — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity
about three years from now, to be accompanied by «dramatic
changes» in
temperatures.
The Nature study is talking
about changes associated with ocean circulation even while CO2, and the
global imbalance, and
global temperature, is increasing.
Specifically on the issue of
global warming from greenhouse gases and climate
change, the conference reached a consensus on the likelihood of a rise in the
global mean
temperature of between 2.7 - 8 degrees F (1.5 - 4.5 degrees C) by
about 2050, but not on whether such warming has begun.
I read some Hansen papers
about «dangerous climate
change», but his comparison (notably) with Eemian didn't convince me (beyong
global mean
temperature of the two periods, there was a huge solar forcing on Greenland during the thermal maximum of Eemian).
Also, the term «
global pattern of warming» implies regional
temperature change, which pushes the climate system response discussion to a much higher level of complexity than when simply talking
about changes in
global - mean climate.
What's important here, and remains important, scientists say, is how the patterns of atmospheric and climatic
change reveal the most
about the involvement of greenhouse gases, not simply the
change in
global temperature.
Climate alarm depends on several gloomy assumptions —
about how fast emissions will increase, how fast atmospheric concentrations will rise, how much
global temperatures will rise, how warming will affect ice sheet dynamics and sea - level rise, how warming will affect weather patterns, how the latter will affect agriculture and other economic activities, and how all climate
change impacts will affect public health and welfare.
There is also a natural variability of the climate system (
about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from
changes in ocean circulation patterns that can make the
global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the
global warming due to CO2.
(2)
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11 - 12 months behind changes in global sea surface tempe
Changes in
global atmospheric CO2 are lagging
about 11 - 12 months behind
changes in global sea surface tempe
changes in
global sea surface
temperature.
(3)
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9.5 - 10 months behind changes in global surface air tempe
Changes in
global atmospheric CO2 are lagging
about 9.5 - 10 months behind
changes in global surface air tempe
changes in
global surface air
temperature.
From Climate
Change Dispatch Peter Ferrara — Forbes Blogs — February 24, 2014 If you look at the record of
global temperature data, you will find that the late 20th Century period of
global warming actually lasted
about 20 years, from the late 1970s to the late 1990s.
This represents an
about 53 % administrative
temperature increase over this period, meaning that more than half of the reported (by GISS)
global temperature increase from January 1910 to January 2000 is due to administrative
changes of the original data since May 2008.
The Arctic relationship should
change in the next few years which should produce
about a 0.2 C negative swing in «
global»
temperatures in the GISS 1200 km version which will produce a difficult challenge for the warmistas.
This is what most of us think of when we talk
about «
Global Warming»; that it is
changes in the air
temperature!
The melting of the Arctic ice will bring
about changes that go way beyond the disastrous weather events we are seeing (and are clear to anyone looking down here in the South Pacific) but will lead to immediate increases in
global temperatures which will make the large - scale growing of grain crops impossible.
In my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that
global climate
change (all that is
changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the
global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of
temperature fluctuations
about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trend.
Given that there is still much we do not know
about climate
change — including why mean
global temperature has been flat for the past ten years — undermining confidence in climate science can (further) undermine its ability to inform policy.
In our «
Global temperature changes of the last millennium» paper, we reviewed these estimates, discussed the assumptions and approximations they made, and attempted to assess what they tell us about the global temperature trends of the last mille
Global temperature changes of the last millennium» paper, we reviewed these estimates, discussed the assumptions and approximations they made, and attempted to assess what they tell us
about the
global temperature trends of the last mille
global temperature trends of the last millennium.
«Getting serious
about climate
change requires wrangling
about the cost of emissions goals, sharing the burdens and drawing up international funding mechanisms,» they add, so it makes sense to shift from a simple but esoteric measure of
global -
temperature change to a range of indicators to which larger numbers of people are likelier to relate — indicators the authors argue are thus likelier to spur policies that have a real climate - curbing impact.
I asked him for his thoughts
about climate
change, after noting that we'd been through a year of record
global temperatures, floods, and the Paris climate accord.
While
changes in solar output have slightly increased
global average
temperature since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the planet - warming effect of man - made greenhouse gases is
about 20 times larger -LRB-
Recently there have been a number of prominent scientists coming out against CAGW, the
global temperature curve remains flat, a prominent CAGW supporter has
changed «sides» in Germany, and has written a book
about the IPCC........
Sealing time of air bubbles at best
about 70 years and mixing with ambient air through diffusion all that time, chemical
changes thereafter, different diffusion rates for different gases thereafter... ice cores are a target - rich environment for casting of doubt
about how well they perform as
global temperature proxies.
The
temperature that climate scientists typically reference and care
about with regard to climate
change is «the average
global temperature across land and ocean surface areas».
So, to be able to monitor and predict
changes in
global temperature we need more than information
about the past, current and expected future level of solar activity.