If you worry
about inflation returning to the economy (and I believe that interest rates and inflation will go up together), stocks are even more attractive.
Not exact matches
He expects low - risk
returns in line with economic growth, say
about 2 % after
inflation.
This week, Germany's business pages have been full of little warnings
about the
Return of
Inflation, the biggest bogeyman in the Teutonic economic lexicon, all because the annual consumer price index rose to its highest level in over three years in December, a shocking 1.7 %.
We sold a portion of our Treasury
inflation protected securities on the advance, moving the overall duration of the Strategic Total
Return Fund to
about 2.3 years.
How do you feel
about a rising
inflation rate on your effective real cash
return?
Uncertainty
about economic growth and
inflation remains a central question for investors and policymakers and one that has crucial implications for the Fed's strategy and investor portfolio
returns.
In the Strategic Total
Return Fund, we shifted
about 25 % of the Fund into Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities with a variety of maturities.
Total
inflation has been close to 2 per cent and is expected to dip to
about 1.7 per cent in the middle of the year before
returning to near its target.
As usual, we need not make specific interest rate forecasts - the fact that prevailing valuations and market action are unfavorable is sufficient to hold the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a relatively muted duration of
about 2 years, largely in Treasury
inflation - protected securities.
If we assume the market
returns to appreciation matching
inflation at 3 %, our portfolio is appreciating in value by
about that same amount, $ 5,555 a month.
This graph also illustrates that when
inflation is sporadic or negative (called deflation), like it often was from 1871 to
about 1931, the nominal and real stock
returns aren't that different.
The Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a duration of
about 2.5 years, mostly in Treasury
inflation protected securities, as well as a roughly 8 % position in precious metals shares.
The Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a duration of just under 2 years, mostly in Treasury
inflation protected securities, and
about 20 % of assets in precious metals shares, for which the Market Climate continues to be favorable at present.
Any non-federal employee earning the equivalent of an MP's salary, who wants an equivalent
inflation - indexed benefit backed by the federal government, would need to buy federal real -
return bonds — to the tune of
about 70 per cent of income!
In the Strategic Total
Return Fund, our present duration of
about 3.5 years is solidly in Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities, which I continue to view as useful investments here.
Given that the Market Climate in bonds continues to be characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action, the Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a muted duration of
about 2 years, mostly in Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities.
The most important policy priority with respect to the Fed is protecting it from stone age monetary ideas like a
return to the gold standard, or turning policymaking over to a formula, or removing the dual mandate commanding the Fed to worry
about unemployment as well as
inflation.
Going back to your post a couple days ago where Bob Brown gave his forecast for equity
returns of
about 6 % (3.2 % after tax and
inflation), if you give up another 2 % + in expense ratio, an investor might as well put their money in long term certificates of deposit and eliminate risk.
For now, the Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a limited duration of
about 2 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by
about 2 % on the basis of bond price fluctuations), mostly in Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities.
The Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to trade around a duration of
about 2 years, mostly in Treasury
inflation protected securities, with
about 20 % of assets in precious metals shares.
Given any positive
inflation at all during the next few years, the real
return on the S&P 500 in this decade through 2010 will probably be worse than the post-depression period, and
about as bad as the 1970's.
... Given 2 %
inflation,
about a 1 % dividend yield and 2 % economic growth, that works out to
about a 5 %
return for stocks, too.
Were RRSP payouts based on a 3 per cent investment
return after
inflation spent over the 35 - year period from Mary's age 60 to her age 95, they could obtain $ 46,000 per year, or
about $ 3,800 per month.
Neither light reading nor cheap (it's hard to find online for less than
about $ 75), this book is the most thoughtful and objective analysis of the long - term
returns on stocks, bonds, cash and
inflation available anywhere, purged of the pom - pom waving and statistical biases that contaminate other books on the subject.
Couple this with various features of the plans themselves — for instance, early retirement provisions allowing teachers to retire in their early - to - mid 50s, unrealistic assumptions
about investment
returns, and cost - of - living adjustments not tied to any
inflation index such as the Consumer Price Index — and you have a system that carries a hefty price tag.
The Strategic Total
Return Fund remained positioned largely in Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities, with
about 25 % of assets allocated between precious metals shares, foreign currencies, and utility shares.
The authors conducted 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with three different sets of assumptions
about stock and bond
returns, equity risk premia as well as
inflation rates, 121 lifetime asset allocation glide paths, annual withdrawal rates of 4 % and 5 %, and time horizons of 20, 30 and 40 years.
I have also read
about inflation worries & the role of REITs & Real
Return Bonds.
Longer duration bond
returns should reflect expectations
about inflation.
Adjusted for
inflation, the «real rate of
return» of the market has averaged
about 8 % per year.
On the contrary, from 1983 through 2004,
inflation averaged
about 3 %, but the nominal annual
return on gold in Canadian dollars during this period was — 0.3 %.
If you're expected
returns on your retirement savings is in the 6 to 7 % range and
inflation eats
about 2.3 % of that, you're left with
about 4 to 5 % which can be spent.
Numerous factors make the calculations uncertain, such as the use of assumptions
about historical
returns and
inflation, as well as the data you have provided.
As Yale economist Robert Shiller puts it, «from 1890 through 1990, the
return of real estate was just
about zero after
inflation.»
It says Canadian
inflation has been lower than expected and won't
return to its ideal target for
about two years.
That leaves you with your original $ 7,000 down payment
returned to you in cash, and you're even in accounting terms (which means in finance terms you're behind; that $ 7,000 invested at 3 % historical average rate of
inflation would have earned you
about $ 800 in those four years, meaning you need to stick around
about 5.5 years before you «break even» in TVM terms).
If you are going to be holding an index ETF for a long time, then you shouldn't be concerned
about its share price at all, since the
returns would be pretty abysmal either way, but it should suffice for hedging
inflation.
After removing the effect of fees and
inflation, you're left with
about a 5 % - a-year
return in real terms — and don't forget the taxman will take another bite out of your
returns, either immediately or when you remove money from your RRSP.
You shouldn't expect more than
about 4 % real (
inflation - adjusted)
return per year, on average, over the long term, unless you have reason to believe that you're doing a better job of predicting the market than the intellectual and investment might of Wall Street - which is possible, but hard.
In a balanced portfolio you're looking at an expected
return of roughly 5 % before
inflation or
about 3 % in real terms.
Consider: In the era when stocks gained an annualized 10 % or so long - term and bonds
returned about 5 % annually, you had roughly a 90 % chance that your savings would last at least 30 years if you invested in a 50 - 50 mix of stocks and bonds and you followed the 4 % rule — that is, you drew 4 %, or $ 48,000, initially from a $ 1.2 million nest egg and increased that amount each year for
inflation.
Add
about 3 % per year
inflation to calculate nominal
returns.
While the average stock - market
return over the past 80 years was
about 10 % (
about 7 % after
inflation), the actual
return in any given year can be much higher or lower.
In developed markets, the right to a certain
return of capital is actually costing anywhere from — 1.5 % to — 0.5 % per year in real purchasing power.1 On the other hand, real yields in many of the larger emerging market economies reside solidly in positive territory —
returning anywhere from
about a 1 % premium over
inflation in Mexico and Russia to more than 6 % in the case of Brazil.
Yale economist and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller reported that from 1890 to 1990, the
return on residential real estate was just
about ZERO after
inflation.
At present the standard
returns for investments like bank certificates of deposit is only
about 4 %, while the anticipated
inflation rate is predicted to be 5 % for the next twenty years or more.
If not for
inflation and stock dividends, which historically provide
about 45 % of stock
returns, many investors would have sharply smaller investment portfolios.
What I'm surprised the most
about is that cash
returns outpaced
inflation.
But as an investor looking to increase your wealth, what you should care
about are real
returns, which are your results over and above
inflation.
This observation reveals that the argument
about confusing
inflation hedging and long - term
returns is a bit of a red herring.