[Response: My post was
about methane hydrates.
But having made my point, I probably shouldn't hijack this interesting post
about methane hydrates any further — I guess we should try to work out how to extract and burn them to avert the peak oil crisis risk of release: --RRB-
Not exact matches
«If we have basic knowledge
about the mechanical properties of
methane hydrates, we can use this information so that we manage them properly,» Zhang said.
Over the years, as researchers have returned to the place they named
Hydrate Ridge, they have learned a lot about how methane hydrate is created
Hydrate Ridge, they have learned a lot
about how
methane hydrate is created
hydrate is created there.
Scientists excavating the ocean floor have found huge chunks of frozen
methane along
Hydrate Ridge,
about 60 miles off the coast of Oregon.
The
methane hydrates with the highest climate susceptibility are in upper continental margin slopes, like those that ring the Arctic Ocean, representing about 3.5 percent of the global methane hydrate inventory, says Carolyn Ruppel, a scientist who leads the Gas Hydrates Project at t
hydrates with the highest climate susceptibility are in upper continental margin slopes, like those that ring the Arctic Ocean, representing
about 3.5 percent of the global
methane hydrate inventory, says Carolyn Ruppel, a scientist who leads the Gas
Hydrates Project at t
Hydrates Project at the USGS.
Research in 2008 led by oceanographer Natalia Shakhova, now at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, estimated the thawing shelf could release a 50 - gigaton pulse of
methane from
hydrates over 10 years —
about 8 percent of the
methane stored in the shelf's sediments.
I'd love to know what they did take into account in attempting to model that period — must include astronomical location, sun's behavior, best estimates
about a lot of different conditions — where the continents were, what the ocean circulation was doing, whether there had been a recent geological period that laid down a lot of
methane hydrates available to be tipped by Pliocene warming into bubbling out rapidly.
My research indicates that the Siberian peat moss, Arctic tundra, and methal
hydrates (frozen
methane at the bottom of the ocean) all have an excellent chance of melting and releasing their stored co2.Recent
methane concentration figures also hit the news last week, and
methane has increased after a long time being steady.The forests of north america are drying out and are very susceptible to massive insect infestations and wildfires, and the massive die offs - 25 % of total forests, have begun.And, the most recent stories on the Amazon forecast that with the change in rainfall patterns one third of the Amazon will dry and turn to grassland, thereby creating a domino cascade effect for the rest of the Amazon.With co2 levels risng faster now that the oceans have reached carrying capacity, the oceans having become also more acidic, and the looming threat of a North Atlanic current shutdown (note the recent terrible news on salinity upwelling levels off Greenland,) and the change in cold water upwellings, leading to far less biomass for the fish to feed upon, all lead to the conclusion we may not have to worry
about NASA completing its inventory of near earth objects greater than 140 meters across by 2026 (Recent Benjamin Dean astronomy lecture here in San Francisco).
And finally, what
about Mark's questions (# 3) and other factors not discussed here — do all these effects re Arctic ice lead scientists to believe there is a greater and / or earlier chance (assuming we continue increasing our GHG emissions — business as usual) of melting
hydrates and permafrost releasing vast stores of
methane into the atmosphere than scientists believed before the study, or is the assessment of this
about the same, or scientists are not sure if this study indicates a greater / lesser / same chance of this?
I have posted on RealClimate
about 4 times in the past 5 years regarding the potential thaw of the methal
hydrate deposits at the bottom of the oceans.I stated in my posts on your website that I believe firmly that those deposits are in quite a good bit of danger of melting from climate change feedback mechanisms.On Nov 8th, ScienceDaily posted a huge new study on the PETM boundary 55 million years ago, and some key data on how the
methane at that point may very well have melted and contributed to the massive climate shift.I am an amateur who reads in the new a lot
about climate change.I'd now like to say «I told you so!!!»
Has anyone commented that the past claims of «shallow
hydrates» would imply the presence
about 50x as much
methane in the shallow sediments — compared to
methane in water or air or sediment not in clathrate form?
This is off topic, but I was wondering
about the Alaska earthquake this morning and its impact on the
methane hydrates along the continental shelf.
Even if most of this will probably not escape in any eventuality, I think it's very important to determine as soon as possible whether we're talking
about one well with a bad cement job, one well with
methane hydrate melting around it, failure of containment of most wells in Bovanenkovo (which after all will all have much the same conditions at the top of the reservoir), or failure of containment of most wells in the Yamal Project.
Plumes of rising
methane bubbles have been mapped off the coast of Svalbard to where the water is
about 400 meters deep — the edge of the stability zone for
hydrates.
And finally, what
about Mark's questions (# 3) and other factors not discussed here — do all these effects re Arctic ice lead scientists to believe there is a greater and / or earlier chance (assuming we continue increasing our GHG emissions — business as usual) of melting
hydrates and permafrost releasing vast stores of
methane into the atmosphere than scientists believed before the study, or is the assessment of this
about the same, or scientists are not sure if this study indicates a greater / lesser / same chance of this?
There has been quite a bit of worry
about what happens when the
methane hydrates on the Arctic shelf go blooie, but a factor not thought of by many is that since these
hydrates are underwater, a fair amount of the
methane will never reach the surface, but will first go into solution in the sea water, and later be oxidized to CO2, hydrogen carbonate and carbonate ions.
Chris Nelder had an article in The Atlantic a few months ago saying that Japan (and everyone else) should forget
about developing unconventional fossil energy like
methane hydrates, and should focus on renewables instead.
At present, co-author and oceanography associate professor Evan Solomon is analyzing the chemical composition of bubble plume samples emitted at
about 500 meters deep off the Washington coast, seeing whether the gas comes from
methane hydrates instead of other sources.
So we divide 54 feet by 168 and we get a packed layer of
about 4 inches thick of solid
methane hydrate buried in the permafrost.
So the
methane emergency statements continue; they seem to have quit using the word «
hydrate» now and yet the same quantity of
methane is being talked
about — although that doesn't add up.
The Minerals Management Service estimates that the Gulf may hold 6,700 tcf of
methane hydrate in sand — enough to satisfy U.S. natural gas demand for
about 290 years, if all of it could be removed economically.
What
about sea - floor
methane hydrate?
«Estimates suggest that there is
about the same amount of carbon in
methane hydrates as there is in every other organic carbon store on the planet,» says Chris Rochelle of the British Geological Survey.
There is some more information
about permafrost and gas
hydrates as a source of
methane here and here: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/MethaneMatters/#page5 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/MethaneMatters/#page6
In the Arctic, due to colder - than - average water temperatures, only
about 200 m of water depth is required, which increases the vulnerability of those
methane hydrates to a warming Arctic Ocean.
However, even in the cold Arctic Ocean,
methane hydrate is only stable below
about 200 m water depth, making for an inefficient pathway to the atmosphere at best.
One possible explanation; Berndt thinks that two things may be going on at once: a slow leak of
methane that's been going on for hundreds of years, and also the beginning of the
hydrate breakup that scientists have been worried
about.
Berndt thinks that two things may be going on at once: a slow leak of
methane that's been going on for hundreds of years, and also the beginning of the
hydrate breakup that scientists have been worried
about...»
Also, there seems to be a regional layer of
methane hydrate, encountered when drilling at multiple gas fields, at
about 100 meters in depth.
If there is a regional layer of Siberian
methane hydrate at
about 100 meters, total
methane content of that layer could be on the order of a gigaton or two of
methane, as a worst case, I think.
RE
methane hydrates, here's a NYT article that claims we don't have to worry
about the deeper ones for 1000s of years because the ocean is slow in warming, esp down at the bottom where the
hydrates are (tho some scientist aren't sure
about that): http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/arctic-
methane-is-catastrophe-imminent/?partner=rss&emc=rss
C (or
methane hydrates / clathrates, in case that isn't considered geologic)-RRB-, Halting all marine photosynthesis and letting respiration / decay continue at the same rate (it would actually decay over time as less organic C would be available) would result in an O2 decrease at a rate of
about 0.011 % per year, but it could only fall at that rate for
about 3 weeks, with a total O2 decrease of
about 0.000675 % (relative to total O2, and not counting organic C burial, which wouldn't make a big difference); Halting all land photosynthesis and letting respirationd / decay proceed at the same rate would cause O2 to fall
about 0.027 % per year for
about 19 years, with a total drop of
about 0.52 %.
The first place I recall reading
about the breakdown of
methane in water was from: Revelle, Roger (1983), «Methane hydrates in continental slope sediments and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide,» Changing Climates, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, pp. 252 — 261, National Academy Press, Washington
methane in water was from: Revelle, Roger (1983), «
Methane hydrates in continental slope sediments and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide,» Changing Climates, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, pp. 252 — 261, National Academy Press, Washington
Methane hydrates in continental slope sediments and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide,» Changing Climates, Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, pp. 252 — 261, National Academy Press, Washington, D. C.
RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before,
methane is an extremely dangerous component to global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting point to frozen
methane.A huge increase in the release of
methane could happen within the next 50 years.At what point in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a huge
methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what point would huge amounts of extra
methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the ocean near the Artic
methane ice deposits would the
methane melt, or at what point in the rise of co2 concentrations in the atmosphere would the
methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting point exists.Of course, once that tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of
methane outgass from what had been locked stores of
methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of stored fossil fuels which have been stored for an eternity as well.And even though
methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around in the air it can cause other tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.
Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How
about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would happen to other tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a huge increase in the melting of the methal
hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the huge, albeit temporary, increase in
methane over even three or four decades might push other relevent tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick, huge, changes occured in the Earth's climate in the past.See other relevent posts in the past from Realclimate.Climate often does not change slowly, but undergoes huge, quick, changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and tipping the climate to a quick change.Why should the danger from huge potential
methane releases be vievwed with any less trepidation?
Today there are
about 10 trillion tonnes of carbon stored in
methane hydrates.
Assuming 1 %
hydrate by pore water volume were released on average from the slide volume, you get a
methane release of
about 0.8 Gton of C. Even if all of the
hydrate made it to the atmosphere, it would have had a smaller climate impact than a volcanic eruption (I calculated the
methane impact on the radiative budget here).