The part
about nonlinear systems is I think defensible.
That's the thing
about nonlinear systems like the Earth's climate: things happen gradually, then suddenly.
Not exact matches
So far, the climate
system has responded to rising carbon dioxide levels at a fairly steady rate, but many scientists worry
about possible
nonlinear effects.
• Lack of formal model verification & validation, which is the norm for engineering and regulatory science • Circularity in arguments validating climate models against observations, owing to tuning & prescribed boundary conditions • Concerns
about fundamental lack of predictability in a complex
nonlinear system characterized by spatio - temporal chaos with changing boundary conditions • Concerns
about the epistemology of models of open, complex
systems
«The great revolution of
nonlinear dynamics over recent decades has provided a wealth of information
about the bifurcations that can destabilise a slowly evolving
system like the Earth's climate.
The model output is evidence of the result of the many processes working together, much as the Pythagorean theorem provides evidence
about the hypoteneuses of a large set imperfectly studied right triangles; or long term simulations of the planetary movements based on Newton's laws provide evidence that the orbits are chaotic rather than periodic; or simulations provide evidence that high - dimensional
nonlinear dissipative
systems are never in equilibrium or steady state even with constant input.
Though, as these are statistics
about largely linear questions in a
nonlinear system, that approach is of somewhat dubious merit.