One of the key drivers of tropospheric temperatures is sensible and latent heat flux from the largest climate energy source on the planet - the ocean — thus, the so - call hiatus tells us more
about ocean cycles (ENSO & PDO) than about climate sensitivity to increasing GHG's.
No, they were just talking
about ocean cycles.
Not exact matches
But for the other half of the picture — what happened in the
oceans during that time — there is only a relatively short record extending back
about 20,000 years to the last glacial
cycle.
They report in Global Biogeochemical
Cycles that, of the carbon entering coastal waters from rivers and the atmosphere,
about 20 percent is buried while 80 percent flows out to the open
ocean.
They're putting these tools to use to ask questions not just
about ocean ecology, but
about the carbon
cycle as well.
«This finding is a major advance in understanding the natural carbon
cycle, gained by applying a new understanding
about how the «overturning circulation» of the Southern
Ocean works,» said lead author Dr Andrew J Watson from the University of Exeter.
A new study led by The Australian National University (ANU) has found seawater
cycles throughout Earth's interior down to 2,900 km, much deeper than previously thought, reopening questions
about how the atmosphere and
oceans formed.
Researchers have known for years that diatoms can remove iron from
oceans and carbon from the atmosphere, but little is known
about how iron is
cycled and removed from the Antarctic region.
About 19 months after the wind churned the
ocean,
cycling warm deep waters upward and sending the cold surface waters down, the Totten ice shelf was noticeably thinner and had sped up.
Age is critical because it takes
about 200 million years for oxygen isotopes in the seas and crustal rocks to be homogenised by
cycling through thermal vents in the
ocean floor.
A new study shows that nitrogen - feeding organisms exist all over the deep
ocean, and not just in large oxygen - depleted «dead zones,» changing the way we think
about the delicate nitrogen
cycle.
About 104 stages of these cold and temperate
cycles have been recognised in deep
ocean marine sediment cores (Figure 1)[1].
About BIOACID: Since 2009, more than 250 BIOACID scientists from 20 German research institutes have investigated how different marine organisms respond to
ocean acidification and increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in seawater, how their performance is affected during their various life stages, how these reactions impact marine food webs and elemental
cycles and whether they can be mitigated by evolutionary adaptation.
So there are
cycles, possibly related to
ocean conditions in the Pacific, which can bring
about super-droughts even without fossil fuelled carbon in the atmosphere.
Read
about ice, steam, snow, drinking water,
oceans, water pollution, seawater, rivers the water
cycle and much more with our huge range of interesting facts
about water.
Are you teaching
about water, the sea,
oceans, the water
cycle or rivers?
Photo pack — Colourful A4 poster pack showing key things related to the water
cycle, such as sun, snow, rain,
ocean etc Water
cycle diagram to label and colour Several versions of images showing the complete water
cycle with varying levels of difficulty Extra large images to make a full water
cycle display — eg A4 size sun, clouds, rain drops, etc Fact cards — half 4 size with facts
about water and the water
cycle — great for reading or display Key word cards — half A4 size showing all words relating to the water
cycle Water
cycle booklet to complete Presentation to make with cue cards for pupils to complete Draw a water
cycle worksheet Acrostic poem to complete True or false quiz Sentence writing sheet to summarise topic understanding Mind map Weather types matching cards to use as memory card game World map to demonstrate size of
oceans Long banner to head display Extra large patterned lettering to head wall display (patterned with raindrops) 3 patterned and plain display borders Writing booklet cover to keep pupils project work together Writing border with water
cycle image to use for generic writing tasks Word search Sack tag to keep resources organised
For example, 2nd - grade students created an activity book for a seafood restaurant, developing their writing skills and vocabulary as they learned
about ocean habitats, life
cycles, and systems.
Each day offers something new and exciting to do, with guided expeditions and treks in the
ocean, on the beach, around the town, and deep into the tropical jungle, learn
about and explore the island while
cycling, snorkeling, horse - back riding, kayaking, hiking and driving dune - buggies.
This adventure resort offers daily guided expeditions and treks in the
ocean, on the beach, around the town, and deep into the tropical jungle, letting guests learn
about and explore the island while
cycling, snorkeling, horseback riding, kayaking, hiking and driving dune - buggies - all included in the room rate.
Original celebrity interviews include TV presenter and explorer Simon Reeve, who describes his recent adventures around the Indian
Ocean for the BBC; renowned fashion designer Dato Professor Jimmy Choo, OBE, who talks
about growing up in Malaysia and the best places to eat and shop; and TV presenter, Fern Britton, who is saddling up for a charity
cycle ride through Sri Lanka.
I'm not just talking
about 2008 being a La Nina year, I'm talking
about the last 5 years that the
oceans in particular have been cooling, long before the end of the last solar
cycle or the recent La Nina.
I wonder, given the recent news
about the various ways plankton actively affect the
oceans, including churning the upper 100 meters, if any of the
cycles could reflect big changes in which species predominate over time.
One does not have to worry
about instabilities associated with ice sheets, feedback from the carbon
cycle (even though this would seem to already be coming into play), or instabilities associated with
ocean circulation.
Based on findings related to oceanic acidity levels during the PETM and on calculations
about the
cycling of carbon among the
oceans, air, plants and soil, Dickens and co-authors Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii and James Zachos of the University of California - Santa Cruz determined that the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by
about 70 percent during the PETM.
As to the bottom line, we are talking
about changes to a fundamental part of the
ocean carbon
cycle, far outside the range of natural variability, that are irreversible and will last for thousands of years.
When we say «positive» and «negative» feedbacks in the sense of radiation (so I'm not talking
about carbon -
cycle responses such as methane release from the
oceans or such) we're referring to temperature - sensitive variables which themselves affect the radiation budget of the planet.
SO just HOW can we justify that that the outflow in the computer MUST be less than inflow for the 250 years of the computer run, when clearly the daily temperature
cycle will reestablish the equilibrium (at least for the atmosphere & ground — not sure
about deep
ocean equilibrium, BUT I also know that there is MUCH MUCH MORE energy stored in the Land (eg solid iron core of earth) than in the
ocean & the GCMs do NOT address this either).
-- Co2 released to the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels is
cycled through the
oceans based on a five year residence time, so that only
about a quarter of the co2 in the atmosphere at any one time is from man.
A lot to be learned
about the carbon
cycle on both
ocean and land.
Over very long time periods such that the carbon
cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of
about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep
ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivity.
The combined effects of
oceans and vegetation are known from ice cores: dCO2 / dT is
about 8 ppmv / °C, pretty constant over 4 ice age — interglacial
cycles in 420,000 years and surprisingly linear, despite that a number of players in this game are acting far from linear.
He said he played plenty for his tuition but in two courses supposedly covering climate, he had not heard anything
about the factors like multidecadal
ocean cycles and the various ways
cycles on the sun affect climate only greenhouse gases.
The oscillation of
about 0.5 deg C
about every 30 years is due to
ocean cycles as described in the following paper:
VP: «The literature tends to be vague
about the periods of
ocean oscillations, which I suspect is because it's hard to separate the 50 - year and 75 - year
cycles.
The global surface temperature increase since
about 1860 corresponds to a recovery from the Little Ice Age, modulated by natural
ocean and atmosphere
cycles, without need for additional forcing by greenhouse gases.
The same thing
about measuring two cats and finding the same weight can be said of recent warming caused by rise in CO2 and rise of CO2 happening to be coincident with warming caused by a natural
ocean cycle (AMDO).
The observation of a historically high level of TSI from 1961 to 2001 tends to fit with the theories set out in my other articles
about the real cause of recent warming and the real link between solar energy,
ocean cycles and global temperatures.
Personally I think that recent research (including several studies discussed in the above post, published after the IPCC AR5 cutoff date) make a strong case that internal variability (
ocean cycles) are responsible for more of the slowdown in surface warming than changes in external forcings, but there's not a consensus
about that yet.
What
about an internal
cycle, perhaps from volcanoes or the
ocean, that releases massive amounts of greenhouse gases?
IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We are
about to enter «one or even 2 decades during which temps cool» — Admits «Jury is still out» on
ocean cycle's temp impact!)
IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We are
about to enter «one or even 2 decades during which temps cool» — Admits «Jury is still out» on
ocean cycle's temp impact!
Natural earth /
ocean climate
cycles like PDO, AMO, NAO and ENSO are not even talked
about by these same alarmists.
I was thinking
about how to include what little we do know
about atmospheric and
ocean cycles into the models.
If I were to speculate
about additional natural factors; such as THC / MOC, or some assumed millennial
ocean cycle, or some third unknown factor that impacts ENSO and the PDO, or some initiator of ENSO events; that speculation would detract from my work, not add to it.
Dessler finds that the short - term changes in surface temperature are related to exchanges of heat to and from the
ocean - which tallies well with what we know
about El Niño and La Niña, and their atmospheric warming / cooling
cycles.
In comparison
cycle 23 only went down
about 0.16 °C, not as strong as
cycle 17 but enough to almost exactly cancel the CO2 - induced warming, while the
ocean oscillations stayed out of the picture as noted above.
Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped
about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific
Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have
cycle lengths of
about 60 years.»
If and when you can provide data or references to document your claims, or if you were to point me to those data or references — data and references that would help illustrate and document my posts, (which are
about the multiyear aftereffects of ENSO events on global SST and TLT anomalies, and
about the discharge / recharge aspects of ENSO, and
about the impacts of ENSO, NAO, NPI, AMO on OHC, not the PDO, not what initiates ENSO events, not millennial
ocean cycles, etc.)-- I would be happy to include it.
«Carbon models» may «indicate that the
ocean will be a net sink for CO2» (as you write), but, inasmuch as the natural carbon
cycle is so much greater than the human emissions, we are talking
about a small difference between large numbers.