This result is contrary to commonly held assumptions
about rainfall trends under climate change.
Not exact matches
These differences between projected and observed
trends in
rainfall seem to raise serious questions
about the ability of the models to predict changes in
rainfall — though Iâ $ ™ d be interested in CSIRO views, especially on whether it is appropriate to use successive 11 - year averages as measures of outcome and, if it is not, how the relationship between projections and outcome should be monitored.
Rainfall change and variability is very likely to affect vegetation in tropical grassland and savanna systems with, for example, a reduction in cover and productivity simulated along an aridity gradient in southern African savanna in response to the observed drying
trend of
about 8 mm / yr since 1970 (Woodward and Lomas, 2004a).
Since
about 1900, multi-decadal-scale
rainfall variability persisted, with drying
trends between around 1930 - 1950 and 1960 - 1985 (Hulme, 2001; Nicholson, 2001).
This finding implies that, even if climatic
trends are absent or negligible,
rainfall and its extremes exhibit an apparent non-stationarity if analyzed over time intervals shorter than the longest periodicity in the data (
about 170 years for the case analyzed here).