To the extent that valuations predict the overall return of the stock market, they tell us everything about the first component and quite a bit
about Safe Withdrawal Rates in general.
It is at least theoretically possible that I am wrong
about safe withdrawal rates.
There was a discussion
about safe withdrawal rates in the comments section of one of my blog entries a few months ago that provoked a comment by me in which I presented an overview of where things stand today re this issue.
This paper explores the issue of sustainable withdrawal rates using 109 years of financial market data for 17 developed market countries in an attempt to provide a broader perspective
about safe withdrawal rates, as financial planners and their clients must consider whether they will be comfortable basing decisions using the impressive and perhaps anomalous numbers found in the past US data.
-LSB-...] are many fantastic articles to read out there
about safe withdrawal rates.
Here is a link to a recent letter from Greg about TIPS and taxable (non-qualified) accounts TIPS and taxable (non-qualified) accounts Here is a link to an earlier discussion with Rob Bennett about SAFE and HAZARDOUS REGIONS SAFE and HAZARDOUS REGIONS Here is a link to an early discussion with Rob Bennett
about Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates Have fun.
There is a lot of confusion
about Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates.
SAFE and HAZARDOUS REGIONS Here is a link to an early discussion with Rob Bennett
about Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates.
A steady, «guaranteed» yield of 4 % from a CDN bank and you can largely avoid worrying
about safe withdrawal rates.
Asset - Based Life has some thoughts
about a safe withdrawal rate.
Not exact matches
Some people tell me «oh, if you had just kept your mouth shut
about the errors in the
safe withdrawal rate studies, the Bogleheads Forum would still be at Morningstar and Microlepsis would still be posting and we would all be better off.
In fact, the cash flow in the next six months will grow to the equivalent of a 4 %
safe withdrawal rate from a mutual fund investment of
about $ 1.8 M USD.
I have questions
about the «maximum
safe withdrawal rate,» or the 4 % rule.
Also, when we talk
about HSWR [Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates], we are talking
about the future and making probabilistic analysis based upon valuations which determine
safe, reasonably
safe, 50/50, likely failure, etc..
Slap some confidence limits
about the graph and you find that the
Safe Withdrawal Rate was 2 % of the original balance (plus inflation).
It occurs to me that investing for income is far easier to track if your goal is retirement income than worrying
about absolute value and
safe withdrawal rates.
We have two baselines and a lot of information
about how valuations affect
Safe Withdrawal Rates.
I confess this otherwise frugal writer is enjoying his new tangible good and is not concerned
about the resulting dent to his portfolio: the amount is well below the «
safe» 4 % annual
withdrawal rate I've blogged
about.
Using the
safe withdrawal rate of 4 %, that money would only generate
about $ 14,000 per year for them safely.
For example, the
safe withdrawal rate changes over time depending on equity valuations and the
safe withdrawal rate can be vastly different depending on your age and expectations
about Social Security, see two case studies I did recently at ChooseFI and last week here on our blog.
Historical Index Data True Buy - and - Hold Investing, TIPS and I Bonds Letter
about You Can't Count on 7 % Articles Mortgage Backed Securities P / E10 Graph, Zvi Bodie's Book and more TIPS and taxable (non-qualified) accounts
SAFE and HAZARDOUS REGIONS Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates Have
SAFE and HAZARDOUS REGIONS
Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates Have
Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates Have fun.
True Buy - and - Hold Investing, TIPS and I Bonds Letter
about You Can't Count on 7 % Articles Mortgage Backed Securities P / E10 Graph, Zvi Bodie's Book and more TIPS and taxable (non-qualified) accounts
Safe Withdrawal Rates and Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates Have fun.
She'll take a bit out the first year — let's say 4 percent, since that's the
safe withdrawal rate that most studies hover around (though there's plenty of debate
about it)-- but the rest will remain invested.
I was writing
about the errors in the Old School
safe withdrawal rate studies 10 years before any of the Big Shots in this field.
How
about the financial analysis and the
Safe Withdrawal Rate Series?
It can certainly be a dangerous topic to blog
about But I have a feeling that many of the people who spend their time arguing
about the precise
safe withdrawal rate haven't actually lived off of an investment portfolio.
Our roots date back to May 2002 when Rob Bennett wanted to know
about price adjusted
safe withdrawal rates.
You know that 4 %
safe withdrawal rate that me and other early retirement bloggers go on and on
about, which is suppose to be the amount you can safely pull out each year and not run out of cash over a 30 year time frame.
Training on the Scenario Surfer adds
about 1 % to your
Safe Withdrawal Rate (e.g., from 4 % to 5 %).
I've been writing
about the «
safe withdrawal rate» problem, otherwise known as SWR, for more than twenty years.
He told them that the highest
safe withdrawal rate from a retirement portfolio was
about 4 percent, not the 5 or 6 percent many were using.
-LSB-...] a one - week hiatus over the holidays when we wrote
about a lighter topic (dealing with debt, booze, and cigarettes, go figure), let's return to the
safe withdrawal rate topic.
-LSB-...]
about the financial analysis and the
Safe Withdrawal Rate Series?
Taking all these factors into mind, the effective
safe withdrawal rate that comes up is
about 3.16 % which implies that you would need to have almost 32 times your annual expenses in your portfolio to never have the money run out which comes to
about Rs. 2.54 Crores.
What I know
about investing, I learned from my participation with my fellow community members over the first seven years of The Great
Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate.
Keep in mind that the savings
rate calculations so far have been based on certain assumptions
about Social Security retirement benefits, the real
rate of return you can expect on your investments, and a
safe withdrawal rate from your retirement savings.
I am hoping to make some improvements to my past work, such as allowing asset allocations and savings
rates to vary over time in my «
safe savings
rates» analysis, looking more at the role of international diversification in retirement portfolios, accounting for taxes in retirement
withdrawal studies, and investigating more
about lifecycle or target - date funds for both the accumulation and retirement phases.
On the retirement side, research is mostly
about finding a «
safe withdrawal rate,» which is then used to compute a «wealth accumulation target» so that desired retirement spending can be funded from this wealth at the desired
withdrawal rate.
Where I'm from (Brisbane, Australia), where weekly rents run at
about $ 400 for an average place, assuming a 4 %
safe withdrawal rate, that would mean your first $ 500,000 in Vanguard or whatever doesn't count as an «investment» as all it's doing is paying your rent.
But he is talking
about one of the less compelling realities of the
safe withdrawal rate topic.
The sentence reads: «Given that
safe withdrawal rates are based on historical worst - case scenarios, and given the information we have
about how bad those historical scenarios have been, we can begin to understand how bad returns would really have to be, from here, to lead to a
safe withdrawal rate that is worse than anything seen in history.»
Focusing on a «
safe withdrawal rate» and then deriving a «wealth accumulation target» to achieve by the retirement date is the wrong way to think
about retirement planning.
Many of us are afraid to write
about issue that matters most because it is scary to contemplate how much financial misery we have caused with our tolerance of the widespread promotion of Buy - and - Hold strategies (it is the Buy - and - Hold Model — rooted in the long - discredited belief that markets are efficient — that is responsible for studies that fail to take valuations into consideration when identifying
safe withdrawal rates).
I believe that what you are looking for is the e-mail in which Wade expresses his concern to me
about the threat that the Goons made to get him fired from his job for the «crime» of having publicly expressed his view that the Old School
safe withdrawal rate studies need to be corrected now that there is a consensus in this field that they get the numbers wildly wrong, Diversified.
This is another complaint
about those dastardly Old School
safe withdrawal rate studies.
As someone who enjoyed a friendship with you prior to the fateful day when I dared to be the first to post honestly on
safe withdrawal rates and also as someone who cares
about the millions of middle - class workers who hopes for their financial futures have been destroyed by the Buy - and - Hold Crisis, I see it as a win / win / win.
Todd Tresidder has written a super article
about the evolution of our understanding of how
safe withdrawal rates work at his Financial Mentor site.
It's important that you know that
about me because most of my views on investing have been influenced by what the Financial Freedom Community learned
about what the historical stock - return data really says during its Great
Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate of recent years.
Varying allocations adds
about 1 % to the 30 - year
Safe Withdrawal Rate.
I wrote her some time back letting her know
about the threats that were made by the Buy - and - Hold Mafia to silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau when he sought to get the errors in the Old School
safe -
withdrawal -
rate studies corrected.