Not exact matches
«If we enter a
bull market, these
stocks will go from five times earnings to
about 10 times earnings, and they haven't done anything yet,» he says.
Or the bank
stock bulls who noted that the institutions were among the cheapest on the
market, and who believed interest rates were
about to rise in mid-2015.
Barron's recently signaled dark skies with headlines that read: «
Stocks Threatened by Looming End of Low Rates» and «4 Questions
About an Unloved
Bull Market.»
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all
about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for
stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for
market losses, particularly given that the current
bull market has now outlived the median and average
bull, yet at higher valuations than most
bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other
market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
I have no views
about whether a bear
market has started in
stocks, because I don't really think in terms of
bull and bear
markets (which can only be identified in hindsight).
FANG
stocks have led the
market higher throughout most of the nine - year
bull market, so it's not surprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 330 points (1.3 percent) on Monday, while the S&P 500 fell
about 42 points (1.5 percent).
You know, that long - term history we're talking
about earlier of
stocks is made up of that
bull market part that's kind of two - X the long - term average, and then all that negative that goes with it, and the blessedness that comes from owning
stocks in the long - term includes all that volatility.
There is an ongoing debate
about the character of the current
bull market in US
stocks.
While we continue to find select value in the United States, we are particularly cautious
about the expensive sectors, regions and
stocks that have fared so well over this protracted
bull market, and we currently favor potential opportunities elsewhere.
Despite lots of talk
about the
bull market nearing its end and signals pointing to a correction in the near - term,
stocks were up strongly in 2017 and have continued those gains this year.
During the nine - year
bull market growth
stocks have outperformed value by
about 50 % as measured by the Russell Indexes.
Investors need to look hard for signs of where
stocks are going from here and most
market indicators are suggesting that the
bull market that has carried U.S.
stocks a long way from the lows of March 2009 is just
about out of steam.
The typical
bull market portion extends
about 3.75 years, on average, during which time
stocks advance at an annual rate of
about 28 %.
This post is part 2 of last week's post
about the duration and magnitude of all
bull market periods in U.S.
stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database and -LSB-...]
Gloom - and - doom is an emotional reaction to learning that all that you came to believe
about stocks during an out - of - control
bull market is wrong.
The volatility of
stocks during
bull market years seems be a range of
about 28 to 35.
There is no exact definition for how much the
market has to go up or how long the upward movement should last for a
bull market to occur but usually when most investors are feeling «happy»
about their
stock investments, a
bull market is in progress.
Like everybody else that writes
about stock investing and wants to be liked by his or her readers, people who have made plans for their financial futures rooted in a belief that
bull market gains are real.
I made two quick runs with
Bull Bear Retirement Trainer B. Using what I have learned
about stock allocations and valuations, I made it through 30 years OK withdrawing 5 % in today's (secular) Bear
Market.
A secular bear or
bull market is a prolonged trend of falling or rising
stock prices, lasting
about five to 20 years, though there's no strict definition.
This post is part 2 of last week's post
about the duration and magnitude of all
bull market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database and the method adopted by Butler Philbrick Gordillo and Associates» post What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh A
bull market periods in U.S.
stocks since 1871, which used the S&P 500 price series from Shiller's publicly available database and the method adopted by Butler Philbrick Gordillo and Associates» post What the
Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh A
Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away.
In this week's
Stock Market Video, Cabot
Market Letter and Cabot Top Ten Trader Editor Mike Cintolo discusses that asking
about corrections misses the point of the
bull move going on right now.
The thing
about bull markets both in the overall
market and in specific
stocks you own too is that a good idea is first latched on to by a few very smart people and then over time some less and less intelligent people doing less and less in - depth work of their own on that
stock take this good idea and they take it way too far.
Since we may now be in the last stages of a
bull market, let's talk
about how a justified initial multiple expansion in a
stock can quickly morph into a totally unjustified subsequent multiple expansion.
How
about comparing the real return of the 12 holding portfolio with the proposed 2 holding portfolio and for periods of other than the last 5 years which was a
bull market for
stocks, int» l, and commodities.