Having proved his ability to handle crystal ball work, Buffett, 86, was asked by this writer — an 87 - year - old friend of his — whether he might care to make a prediction
about total returns over the 17 years starting now and ending late in 2033.
When investing in either stocks or bonds, always think
about the total return = principal performance + dividends.
Remember, it's important to think
about total return investing — not just a handful of cute dividends.
Whether it's caring for people or helping them communicate, there's nothing old - fashioned
about total returns that top the market.
Whether it's caring for people or helping them communicate, there's nothing old - fashioned
about total returns that top the market.
The author contends that dividend investors often make three common mistakes: chasing yield, forgetting
about total return, and not keeping track of their investments.
That brings us to this week's question: Are dividend investors guilty of chasing yield, forgetting
about total return, and not keeping track of their investments?
Dean Harman, founder of Harman Wealth Management in The Woodlands, Texas, says concern
about the Total Return Fund will not affect his decisions regarding other Pimco funds in client accounts.
That together, if you pay a fair price, is going to get
you about your total return over time.
Discover everything you need to know
about Total Return with easy access to fund literature and charts.
Not exact matches
The investment would have seen a lifetime
total return of
about 300 percent, including price appreciation and dividend gains reinvested.
A copy of Trump's 2005 tax
return that was leaked earlier this year showed that he had to pay $ 31 million in AMT that year, accounting for
about 80 percent of his
total tax bill.
That's
about the same as the ratio was in the 1990s, but in the decades prior, dividend appreciation accounted for between 24 % and 71 % of
total returns.
GM said it expects to
return about $ 7 billion in cash to shareholders in 2017, bringing
total cash
returns to
about $ 25 billion since 2012.
The
total transaction tax over a 10 - year period is only
about $ 23, and our retirement saver gives up
about $ 35 in 10 - year
returns.»
Learn more
about the positive outlook the BlackRock
Total Return Fund portfolio management team has for bond markets in 2018.
The current dividend yield on XRE is
about 5.25 % and
about 4.90 % on CPD and their
total year - to - date
return is 8.76 % and 1.92 %.
All told, we see another coupon - driven year for high yield with
total returns of
about 6 % possible as spreads tighten in line with anticipated modest increases in interest rates.
As we've noted previously, MarketCap / GVA has a correlation of
about 92 % with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500
total returns, even in recent market cycles.
From a valuation standpoint, we estimate that the S&P 500 Index would have to fall to the 1000 level to bring prospective 10 - year nominal
total returns toward their historical norm of
about 10 % annually.
We sold a portion of our Treasury inflation protected securities on the advance, moving the overall duration of the Strategic
Total Return Fund to
about 2.3 years.
At longer horizons, the 6.3 % growth rate that we've assumed for nominal GDP over the coming years will begin to bail investors out given enough time, and as a result, our projection for 10 - year S&P 500 nominal
total returns peeks its head up above zero, at
about 2.4 % annually from current levels.
In a nutshell, the normal run - of - the - mill expectation for S&P 500
total returns from present valuations is zero over the coming 10 years, but in the event of a secular low in the future,
total returns from current valuations may turn out to be
about zero for the coming 20 years.
Since earnings growth for the S&P 500 has never grown faster than
about 6 % annually when properly measured from peak - to - peak or trough - to - trough, we're talking
about a long term
total return of
about 7.2 % if - and it's a big if - P / E ratios were held at current extremes forever.
PIMCO
Total Return Fund holds
about $ 244 billion in assets spread across various share classes.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund currently carries a duration of
about 2 years, primarily in U.S. Treasury securities, with just over 15 % of assets allocated to foreign currencies.
In addition to the
Total Return Fund's positions in TIPS and short - dated Treasury securities, the Fund continues to hold
about 30 % of assets in a diversified group of precious metals shares, utility shares, and foreign currencies.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund currently has an overall duration slightly over 3 years, primarily in straight Treasuries, with a small 1 % exposure to precious metals shares and
about 4 % of assets in utility shares.
In the Strategic
Total Return Fund, we shifted
about 25 % of the Fund into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities with a variety of maturities.
Total inflation has been close to 2 per cent and is expected to dip to
about 1.7 per cent in the middle of the year before
returning to near its target.
With the S&P 500 within
about 8 % of its highest level in history, with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal
total returns; with an extended period of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile
return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only
about 9 % of history.
According to Yahoo Finance, if you had reinvested dividends in AT&T during this time period, the
total return on AT&T would have been
about 106 %, not 50 %.
At present, the valuation measures we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500
total returns suggest zero
total returns for the S&P 500 over the coming 10 years, and
total returns averaging only
about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period.
As usual, we need not make specific interest rate forecasts - the fact that prevailing valuations and market action are unfavorable is sufficient to hold the Strategic
Total Return Fund to a relatively muted duration of
about 2 years, largely in Treasury inflation - protected securities.
If we add on the average dividend payment of 4 % for the two years, we've got
about a 11 %
total return in AT&T vs. a 500 %
return for Tesla.
This is the fourth time that Bill Gross has been a member of the IA 25, and while money has been flowing out of PIMCO's flagship
Total Return Fund for some time, we know that advisors continue to be keenly interested not simply in the drama surrounding Mohamed El - Erian's departure, but in Gross» thoughts
about the future behavior of the Fed and the direction of interest rates.
Among these, the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to corporate gross value - added has the strongest correlation (
about -93 %) with subsequent 12 - year S&P 500
total returns.
«We are optimistic
about CNH credits going into 2014 and expect a
total return of 3 % to 4 % in dollar terms,» HSBC analysts say.
After climbing
about 2 percent on above - average volume on Thursday, the iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex
Total Return ETN -LRB-...
Conversely, the other 92 % of historical periods actually capture
about (1 /.07 =) 14 times the cumulative
total return of the S&P 500 index itself.
The most recent rally occurred in December and January, lifting the MLP index by
about 15 % and leaving them up
about 50 % (or
about 65 % on a
total return basis) from their early 2016 trough.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund continues to carry an average duration of
about 4 years, primarily in straight Treasuries.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund continues to hold a portfolio duration of
about 6 years, meaning that a 1 % (100 basis point) change in interest rates would induce a roughly 6 % change in the value of the Fund.
For example if you bought Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM), a holding in the Dividends Diversify Model Portfolios, during the market peak of 2007 and held though summer of this year, you would have earned
about a 7.5 % annual
total return including dividends.
If you combine the two, it happens that the average full market cycle is 5 years in duration, and generates an average
total return of
about 10.9 % over the entire cycle.
Strategic
Total Return continues to carry a duration of
about 3.5 years in Treasury securities (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by
about 3.5 % on the basis of bond price fluctuations), and holds
about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and
about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund continues to carry a duration of
about 2.5 years, mostly in Treasury inflation protected securities, as well as a roughly 8 % position in precious metals shares.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund continues to carry a duration of just under 2 years, mostly in Treasury inflation protected securities, and
about 20 % of assets in precious metals shares, for which the Market Climate continues to be favorable at present.
On the basis of nominal
total returns (including dividends), we estimate zero or negative
returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon shorter than
about 8 years.
The Strategic
Total Return Fund has reduced its exposure to precious metals shares to
about 8 % of assets, but is likely to increase rather than decrease this exposure on weakness in this group.