It's interesting that you and others here have gone the ad hominem route simply because I call for transparency and honesty
about uncertainties in climate science.
Sashka's main goal seems to be convincing
us about the uncertainty in climate science, then to use this uncertainty to argue against regulatory action.
In my Uncertainty Monster paper, I made scientific and pragmatic arguments for understanding, assessing and reasoning
about uncertainty in climate science.
Not exact matches
Having taken us to task for somehow not properly handling the
uncertainties in climate science — an error we did not commit, as I document above — he then proceeds to offer a horrifically misleading summary of what the IPCC actually found
about the achievability and cost of meeting the 2 degree goal.
Drs Leonard Smith and Nicholas Stern wrote poignantly
about how policy is nearly always set
in the context of
uncertainty, and that even incomplete scientific assessments can be of great value («Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy», http://www.lorentzcenter.nl/lc/web/2011/460/presentations/
uncertainty, and that even incomplete scientific assessments can be of great value («
Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy», http://www.lorentzcenter.nl/lc/web/2011/460/presentations/
Uncertainty in science and its role
in climate policy», http://www.lorentzcenter.nl/lc/web/2011/460/presentations/Smith.pdf).
I've written
in the past
about other issues related to setting a numerical limit for
climate dangers given both the enduring
uncertainty around the most important
climate change questions and the big body of
science pointing to a gradient of risks rising with temperature.
Koenig's careful description of the
science and the
uncertainty about what the future holds prompted a public spanking from the Center for American Progress
climate blogger Joe Romm, who charged her with «scientific reticence» — alluding to NASA scientist James Hansen's paper criticizing sea - level researchers for being overly cautious
in 2007 conclusions
about the possible rate of sea rise
in this century.
It's interesting to note that the chatter
about this technology has extended even to Wattsupwiththat, the aggregator of all things doubtful
in climate science (where there'll always be sufficient farearound the edges to feed those seeking comfort
in uncertainty).
Steven E. Koonin, once the Obama administration's undersecretary of energy for
science and chief scientist at BP, stirred up a swirl of turbulence in global warming discourse this week after The Wall Street Journal published «Climate Science is Not Settled,» his essay calling for more frankness about areas of deep uncertainty in climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much a
science and chief scientist at BP, stirred up a swirl of turbulence
in global warming discourse this week after The Wall Street Journal published «
Climate Science is Not Settled,» his essay calling for more frankness about areas of deep uncertainty in climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much a
Climate Science is Not Settled,» his essay calling for more frankness about areas of deep uncertainty in climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much a
Science is Not Settled,» his essay calling for more frankness
about areas of deep
uncertainty in climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much a
climate science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and climate policy are based on values as much a
science, more research to narrow error ranges and more acknowledgement that society's decisions on energy and
climate policy are based on values as much a
climate policy are based on values as much as data.
Professor Curry has led debate
in the
science community
about the process of reviewing
climate change, including giving testimony before the US house subcommittee on environment this year, remarking on the many large
uncertainties in forecasting future
climate.
As Professor Barry Brook, Adelaide University said a couple of months after your proclamation
about the up - coming ice - age QUOTE: There are a lot of
uncertainties in science, and it is indeed likely that the current consensus on some points of
climate science is wrong, or at least sufficiently uncertain that we don't know anything much useful
about processes or drivers» (http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/04/23/ian-plimer-heaven-and-earth/).
In a new filing to the IRS — adding to an active investigation prompted by a 2012 complaint that ALEC is operating as a corporate lobbying group while registered as a 501 (c)(3) nonprofit charity — the watchdog organizations detail for the first time how Exxon has used ALEC as a key asset in its explicit campaign to sow uncertainty about climate science, undermine international climate treaties and block legislation to reduce emission
In a new filing to the IRS — adding to an active investigation prompted by a 2012 complaint that ALEC is operating as a corporate lobbying group while registered as a 501 (c)(3) nonprofit charity — the watchdog organizations detail for the first time how Exxon has used ALEC as a key asset
in its explicit campaign to sow uncertainty about climate science, undermine international climate treaties and block legislation to reduce emission
in its explicit campaign to sow
uncertainty about climate science, undermine international
climate treaties and block legislation to reduce emissions.
There are many
uncertainties as to when the glaciers will be entirely gone > Jimbo's link (his 4th) on the
Science news story, which is identical to the recent tempest
in a teapot
about the Himalayan glaciers > At a time when governments are baulking at taking tough measures to combat
climate change, this new blow to the credibility of the IPCC could not have come at a worse time.»
By way of further explanation... Warren's paper seems to suggest that a significant % of the public formulate their views
about climate change based on what
climate scientists do or don't say
about uncertainties in the
science.
In the first one, Dr Andrea Taylor, from the University of Leeds (UK), talked about «Communicating uncertainty in climate information: insights from the behavioural sciences»
In the first one, Dr Andrea Taylor, from the University of Leeds (UK), talked
about «Communicating
uncertainty in climate information: insights from the behavioural sciences»
in climate information: insights from the behavioural
sciences».
I am talking
about a consensus of multiple lines of evidence (empirical evidence
in addition to modeling, logic etc.) When there is a large degree of
uncertainty, as there is
in climate science, a consensus of evidence is most definitely very important.
If journalists wrote more stories
about where
uncertainty exists
in the
science, and if they were more aggressive
about challenging scientists on transparency issues, we wouldn't have these pseudo-scandals erupt every time a
climate scientist missteps.
Also, Inside
Climate News recently described a new study published in Science about how fossil - fuel funded climate - science deniers disingenuously shift their arguments and use normal scientific uncertainties to deflect attention from the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change and argue for no action to reduce greenhouse - gas emi
Climate News recently described a new study published
in Science about how fossil - fuel funded climate - science deniers disingenuously shift their arguments and use normal scientific uncertainties to deflect attention from the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change and argue for no action to reduce greenhouse - gas emi
Science about how fossil - fuel funded
climate - science deniers disingenuously shift their arguments and use normal scientific uncertainties to deflect attention from the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change and argue for no action to reduce greenhouse - gas emi
climate -
science deniers disingenuously shift their arguments and use normal scientific uncertainties to deflect attention from the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change and argue for no action to reduce greenhouse - gas emi
science deniers disingenuously shift their arguments and use normal scientific
uncertainties to deflect attention from the overwhelming scientific consensus on
climate change and argue for no action to reduce greenhouse - gas emi
climate change and argue for no action to reduce greenhouse - gas emissions.
While
climate science can effectively inform us
about the range of possible consequences of a warming world, there is a large amount of irresolvable
uncertainty inherent
in climate forecasting.
... Exxon
in particular has paid researchers and front groups to create
uncertainties about basic
climate change
science and used denialist groups to attack well - respected scientists...
First, while it is important to understand the remaining
uncertainties in climate science, it is critical to also realize how much we do understand
about the
climate.
Given that much of the
science backing the consensus view is not
in contention, and given that as we saw
in the last entry
in this series that there is an ethical need to be very careful
in talking
about the
uncertainties associated with
climate science, a PR firm led strategy that emphasizes
uncertainty without regard to how much of the
science is settled is extraordinarily unethical.
Some of the arguments against
climate change policies based upon scientific
uncertainty should and can be responded to on scientific grounds especially
in light of the fact that many claims
about scientific
uncertainty about human - induced warming are great distortions of mainstream
climate change
science.
See
in particular «Exxon Sowed Doubt
About Climate Science for Decades by Stressing
Uncertainty,» by David Hasemyer and John H. Cushman Jr., Inside
Climate News, October 22, 2015.
The findings have generated vigorous international debate
about an issue that remains a key area of
uncertainty in climate science.
...
In a recently published book titled Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming, the technically qualified authors (scientists all) point to four reasons: a conflict among scientists in different disciplines; fundamental scientific uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the UN's IPCC to provide objective guidance to the complex science; and bias among researchers.&raqu
In a recently published book titled Why Scientists Disagree
About Global Warming, the technically qualified authors (scientists all) point to four reasons: a conflict among scientists
in different disciplines; fundamental scientific uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the UN's IPCC to provide objective guidance to the complex science; and bias among researchers.&raqu
in different disciplines; fundamental scientific
uncertainties concerning how the global
climate responds to the human presence; failure of the UN's IPCC to provide objective guidance to the complex
science; and bias among researchers.»
Some of the gaps
in Chapter 3 on ethical issues raised by
climate change policy - making include: (1) ethics of decision - making
in the face of scientific
uncertainty, (2) whether action or non-action of other nations affects a nation's responsibility for
climate change, (3) how to spend limited funds on
climate change adaptation, (4) when politicians may rely on their own uninformed opinion
about climate change
science, and (5) who is responsible to for
climate refugees and what are their responsibilities.
Second, other scientific
uncertainty arguments are premised on cherry picking
climate change
science, that is focusing on what is unknown
about climate change while ignoring numerous conclusions of the scientific community that are not
in serious dispute.
Further, the corporate - funded campaign to play up
uncertainties in climate science, carried out through industry associations like the American Petroleum Institute and front groups like the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, has done its part to sow public confusion
about the level of consensus
in climate science.
But Mann argues that the paper adds to growing concerns
about the «
uncertainty»
in climate change
science being more bad than good for humanity: «We should be taking into account worst - case scenarios when we attempt to gauge the risks posed by
climate change.»
«He said that public confidence
in climate science would be improved if there were more openness
about its
uncertainties, even if that meant admitting that sceptics had been right on some hotly - disputed issues.»
Whereas he was saying that the public are too vulnerable to be exposed to discussions
about uncertainty in scientific debates with implications for policy, the Guardian journalist — as is Guardian journalists» want — read it as a message that there was no
uncertainty or controversy
in climate science.
After having read the many comments here, I see that the discussion is «getting wrapped around the axle» on the definition of a «black swan», rather than staying on the main topic of how
uncertainties and potential major outliers
in our knowledge of
climate science should affect our conclusions of what is likely to be the human impact on
climate and what should be done
about it.
Among other things, the authors state that [1] «scientists do not know how large the greenhouse effect is, whether it will lead to a harmful amount of global warming, or (if it will) what should be done
about it» (p. 560); [2] that «profound disagreements»
about global warming exist within the scientific community (p. 560); [3] that so - called «activist scientists» say that the earth's
climate is warming (p. 560); [4] that «
science doesn't know whether we are experiencing a dangerous level of global warming or how bad the greenhouse effect Is, if it exists at all» (p. 569); [5] and that global warming is «enmeshed
in scientific
uncertainty» (p. 573).
In Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy, Lenny Smith and the Blair Government's climate economist, Nicholas Stern attempt to give this form of politics some justification in the face of questions about «uncertainty»
In Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy, Lenny Smith and the Blair Government's climate economist, Nicholas Stern attempt to give this form of politics some justification in the face of questions about «uncertai
Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy, Lenny Smith and the Blair Government's climate economist, Nicholas Stern attempt to give this form of politics some justification in the face of questions about «uncertainty»
in science and its role
in climate policy, Lenny Smith and the Blair Government's climate economist, Nicholas Stern attempt to give this form of politics some justification in the face of questions about «uncertainty»
in climate policy, Lenny Smith and the Blair Government's
climate economist, Nicholas Stern attempt to give this form of politics some justification
in the face of questions about «uncertainty»
in the face of questions
about «
uncertaintyuncertainty».
«The
uncertainties of the
climate models have not been studied sufficiently at all, and the established
science tries to keep quiet
about this situation
in public.»
A report by the Union of Concerned Scientists titled «Smoke, Mirrors and Hot Air: how ExxonMobil uses big tobacco to manufacture
uncertainty on
climate science,» found that
in the preceding years, Patrick Michaels had been connected to at least 11 think - tanks and groups that had received money from ExxonMobil, many of which had gone on to sow doubt
about human - induced global warming.
The problem is that Professor Wensch is unhappy with being quoted
in a manner that gives weight to his proper and appropriate concern
about the
uncertainty of global
climate «
science» and the high potential for bias.
In the run - up to the Paris talks that began Nov. 30, Exxon has been under heavy assault by environmentalists and politicians who say it misled the public by promoting
uncertainties about climate science.
It's weaknesses
in expressing
uncertainties about climate science (covered by WG1) are a problem, but they do not invalidate the scientific knowledge.
As Dr. Curry has said,
climate science is
in its infancy, and
uncertainties about such things as this are not as well understood as are say the steam tables.