Such an investor cares greatly
about volatility of returns, as the more volatile return streams increase the chances of being a forced seller at a very disadvantageous price for the portfolio.
Not exact matches
When SPY's 20 - day realized
volatility is above 20 %, the tail risks
of overnight
returns are
about the same as those
of close - to - close
returns.
In their May 2012 paper entitled «Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer», Adam Butler, Michael Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo backtest a progression
of strategies culminating in an Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA) strategy that incorporates
return predictability from relative momentum (last 120 trading days,
about six months),
volatility predictability from recent
volatility (last 60 trading days) and pairwise correlation predictability from recent correlations (last 250 trading days).
Assuming a slightly higher
volatility of 30 percent -
about the risk
of many 401K portfolios, say the authors - the chance
of a negative
return increases.
That extra bit
of return beyond
about a 10 year term isn't worth the
volatility, especially in the part
of your portfolio that is there to dampen overall volatilty.
Monday February 12: Five things the markets are talking
about Investors are bracing for another bumpy ride this week after market
volatility has
returned with a vengeance, delivering the biggest rout in global stocks in a number
of years.
The 2010 Best
of the Hot List includes articles
about why style and size based investing will often serve to limit
returns, how emotion and discipline during times
of market
volatility are key to long term performance, and why the stock market and economy are two different animals and can often behave differently.
Each
of these strategies varies in the types
of returns they generate and in their expected
volatility, as you are
about to see.
But people in the real world don't worry
about volatility or demand a premium
return to bear it; what they care
about is the likelihood
of losing money.
As currency
volatility can have a significant impact on the total
return of an international investment, thinking
about how to potentially insulate a portfolio from such currency ups and downs is more important than ever.
Overall, Strategic Total
Return presently holds
about 14 %
of assets in precious metals shares - still a constructive position in light
of continued favorable conditions, but restrained enough to accept the possibility
of short - term
volatility without much worry.
While covered - call strategies appear to promise «a free lunch»
of increased
returns with less risk, investors who care
about more than the
volatility of returns will not find this an efficient strategy.
Recent market
volatility shouldn't be enough to threaten the economic cycle, but does it temper optimism
about the
return potential
of risk assets?
The fund's standard deviation, a measure
of volatility of returns, was
about 0.5 % higher than that
of the reference ETF portfolio.
At
about 13.6 %, the fund's standard deviation (a measure
of volatility of returns) was only 0.2 % higher than that
of the reference portfolio.
As you can see, the
volatility of returns in Canada and the US has been
about 50 % lower in the last three and five years than it was during the past two decades.
We can now say that Berkshire Hathaway has a historical
return volatility of about 16 %.
That translates to receiving
about 60 %
of the
returns of an all - equity portfolio with
about 25 %
of the
volatility.
Investors may prefer dividend paying equities because dividends are historically responsible for
about half
of long - term total stock
returns, because dividend payers tend to be established and stable businesses, or because dividend stocks experience lower
volatility than non-dividend payers.
At 15.1 %, the fund's standard deviation, a measure
of volatility of returns, was
about 2.4 % higher than that
of the reference ETF portfolio.
Given the relationship between high
volatility and low
returns, it's not surprising that investments made during periods
of lower
volatility outperform over short holding periods (up to
about 11 months).
Since we are talking
about using the past
volatility of a stock to predict its future
return, the failure
of the risk -
return trade - off may be because
volatility reverses.
??? On this web site, get everything
about those portfolios for FREE: you will find a description, the current holdings, the compounded
returns, the sector mix, the
volatility rating and the historical orders since the inception
of each portfolio.
The couple is hoping to make
about 4 % average annual net
returns with a minimum
of volatility and risk.
Included in such funds are the kinds
of companies I discussed in an article
about stocks Warren Buffett might buy; stocks with wide moats, strong financial positions, and product lines that sell just as well in recession as they do in periods
of strong economic growth.A low
volatility ETF is an easy way to get exposure to stock - like
returns without the crazy up and downs.
Compared with the cap - weighted index, the US MV portfolios have
about 25 % less
volatility and a
return advantage
of 134 — 182 basis points (bps).
The fund cumulatively
returned about 9.1 % more than its reference ETF portfolio
of a slightly lower
volatility.
The higher the number, the greater the
volatility; for a stock fund that has an average annual
return of 12 % and a standard deviation
of 20 %, you can expect to earn between 32 % and -8 % in
about two out
of every three years.
The fund's
volatility, measured as an annualized standard deviation
of monthly
returns, was
about 10 % above that
of the reference portfolio.
This strategy would have put you in cash
about 47 %
of the time, so if our switches were random, we'd expect to earn
about half the market
return with half the
volatility.
In their May 2012 paper entitled «Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer», Adam Butler, Michael Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo backtest a progression
of strategies culminating in an Adaptive Asset Allocation (AAA) strategy that incorporates
return predictability from relative momentum (last 120 trading days,
about six months),
volatility predictability from recent
volatility (last 60 trading days) and pairwise correlation predictability from recent correlations (last 250 trading days).
An investment in the S&P 500 Index at present levels is likely to achieve a nominal total
return of about 4.4 % annually over the coming decade, and investors will have to tolerate a great deal
of volatility in pursuit
of that
return.
The head
of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sounded optimistic Friday
about opportunities that may arise out
of the recent
return of volatility to markets.
Notice, minimum
volatility in the lower corner with an annualized risk
of about 11.75 % and annualized
return of just over 11 %, only slightly better than the market.
While I think it's reasonable to lower your expectations for bond market
returns and allow for higher
volatility because
of the level
of rates, it seems to me that many
of the fears
about fixed income are overblown.
One
of our biggest influences is Warren Buffett, who stresses that predictions
about the future should be based on an understanding
of economic fundamentals and human nature, not on historical
returns, correlations and
volatilities.
Retail investors don't care
about that but they look at the
return series, and analyze whether the
volatility is too great or too small for them, and if they have beaten many
of their peers.
When talking
about «low
volatility products,» Yasenchak is referring to portfolios that «specifically seek benchmark - like
returns, over the full market cycle, with a total
volatility, measured as the standard deviation, falling considerably below that
of the index.»
Assuming a slightly higher
volatility of 30 percent -
about the risk
of many 401K portfolios, say the authors - the chance
of a negative
return increases.
Similar to the stock diversification example in Article 7.1, there is a «tangency portfolio»
of about 20 % stocks and 80 % bonds that historically has moderately boosted portfolio
returns while adding little additional
volatility.
The portfolio
of half Canadian and half US stocks
returned more than that average —
about 10.3 % — and with significantly lower
volatility than either
of the two countries individually.
Typically they'll do
about 100 passes over the plan to get a sense
of its probable risk versus growth - potential versus
volatility, and tweak the plan until the normal
volatility is within the range you've said you're comfortable with while trying to produce the best
return with the least risk.
To obtain greater stock
returns, the trade - off is suffering significant short - term
volatility, such as that investors experience first - hand every day, with
about 49 %
of daily
returns being negative.
Holding an diversified investment portfolio comprised
of asset classes with healthy correlations to each other is just
about the only way to reduce risk and
volatility, while still realizing the
returns that have any chance
of outperforming the markets, enough
of the time.
The revised statement
of investment strategy doesn't mention
volatility but, instead, talks
about «an appropriate
return - to - risk trade - off» and warns
of the prospect
of frequent trading.
Even so, by investing in markets only when they are truly cheap (> median real earnings yield) and holding cash otherwise, investors would have generated
about 70 %
of the total
return to stocks with less than half the
volatility and 73 % lower drawdowns since 1934.
At
about 15 %, the fund's
volatility, measured by an annualized standard deviation
of monthly
returns in the entire analysis period, was slightly lower than that
of the overall stock market.
Lendedu explains the results
of the poll shows quite a few investors are not worried
about bitcoin's price
volatility, and are willing to gamble
returns from bitcoin will pay off credit card debt.