Now Facebook is the hot new political consultant because it controls all the valuable data
about voter preferences and behavior.
Not exact matches
You would have to establish that the total tax paid by the election winning
voters was more than the total tax paid by the election losing
voters to make any valid claim
about taxes paid and policy
preferences.
Vote splitting most easily occurs in plurality voting because the ballots don't gather any information
about the secondary
preferences of the
voters.
This profoundly granular information
about individual
voters and their
preferences helped the campaign focus persuasion work on the persuadable and GOTV on the
voters likely to vote for their guy.
At least one of the candidates is feeling out potential Republican
voters, as a recent poll asked
about name recognition and
preference for Massey, Faulkner, Ulrich and Catsimatidis.
Dan talks
about giving equal right to access the ballot for the roughly 20 % of the
voters with no party
preference.
The problem with predicted outcomes of AV based on, for example, successive YouGov polls looking at
voters preferences is that they really only tell us
about short term effects on the relative position of the big established parties.
«The current system of part - time legislators and existing income disclosure requirements is the
preference of only
about one - third of
voters.
Asked a more detailed question
about coalition
preferences, Tory
voters would prefer another deal with the Lib Dems to one with UKIP (48 % to 37 %).
The detailed YouGov results provide much information
about second and subsequent
preferences, although they predict a rather unrealistic low switch in allegiance in AV first
preference votes from FPTP voting intentions — both Labour and Tories, for example, are predicted to retain 96 % of their FPTP
voters as first
preferences which must understate the switch to UKIP and the Greens, for example.
The
voter has to make a choice of
preferences whilst unaware of the outcome, thus making a hypothetical decision
about a choice that can not be foreseen exactly.
A more common concern
about conjoint analysis is that it relies too heavily on the stated
preferences of respondents, which would be problematic if
voters were unwilling to provide candid answers
about subjects such as ethnicity.
When we draw a conclusions
about what all
voters in Quebec prefer based on premises describing the
preferences of a sample of Quebec
voters our conclusion goes beyond the information in our premises (here to
voters that we didn't sample).
One is
about public bus purchases and scrappage and the third is
about learning
about California
voter's
preferences for carbon mitigation based on voting on AB32 and High Speed Rail.
The firm used their reams of personal data to make predictions
about voters and then tailor Facebook ads to their specific personalities and
preferences.