Unlike many other polls asking
about voting intention in the referendum YouGov's tracker on the Alternative Vote referendum starts with text briefly summarising what First Past the Post and Alternative Vote actually are.
Since Cameron became leader, every time a hypothetical poll
about voting intention with Gordon Brown as leader has been asked, it has shown either the parties neck and neck or a Tory lead, and the majority have shown Brown doing worse than Blair.
Labour shouldn't be worrying too much
about voting intention figures, it is early in the Parliament after all.
Of course — the same caveats that I used to attach to polls asking hypothetical questions
about voting intention under potential Tory leaders apply to questions about potential Labour leaders as well — it may be a long time until we know what effect a Gordon Brown leadership would really have on Labour support.
Standard opinion polls do not include under - 18s, and little is known
about their voting intentions.
UKIP voters are also more certain
about their voting intentions with those saying they «don't know» who they will vote for dropping from 15.27 % in 2009 to 7.83 % in 2014.
The briefing was smoked out by an «Email your MP» campaign launched by the People's Pledge just 48 hours beforehand, as Labour MPs then contacted party headquarters to ask how they should respond to questions from constituents
about their voting intentions on July 5.
I am a member of You Gov and Populus and I can tell you I was rarely asked my opinion
about voting intentions during the last election campaign.
The polling company Tamedia asked 20,000 people
about their voting intentions on the next referendum day (which includes 3 other issues along with basic income).
Our new poll also asked once again
about voting intentions for the National Assembly.
ICM also asked
about voting intentions in the European elections, for the first time since February.
Not exact matches
In a statement, the four council members making the proposal said it was never meant to target one company, but «Amazon made the conversation
about them when they expressed their
intentions to pause construction on their new office tower pending a
vote on our Progressive Tax on Business.»
Indeed, it wasn't that the polls were wrong
about the UK election; results were close, if you took people's
voting intentions at face value.
The meeting should be a private one, but the MP could be told quite clearly that afterwards a clear statement will be issued giving his, or her, views
about homosexual marriage with the MP's
voting intentions.
Scottish Tories currently campaigning for local government elections on May 4th tell stories
about encountering long - standing Labour voters in local authority areas not exactly known for being friendly to Conservatives and who now declare their
intention to
vote for «Ruth» and the Tories.
Between now and the general election, which if we believe Alan Johnson is at most eight months away, there will probably be more than 100
voting intention polls bandied
about, so I thought it would be helpful to offer Total Politics readers some basic pointers to help pick their way through this particular thicket.
This may be because many people found Lib / Lib Dem policies unobjectionable and were willing to express positive opinions
about the leader of a party for which they had no
intention of
voting.
This is surprising, given that the party is polling at
about a third of its 2010 level of support, in terms of
voting intentions.
However, the decision
about who to
vote for on May 7th should surely be based on a party's political vision, philosophical basis and
intention, rather than their ability to predict the future or make claims
about the public finances.
In conversations with a few attendees they spoke nicely
about Malliotakis, but didn't express an
intention to
vote for her over Dietl in November.
The problem is that, as a traditional driver of
voting intention, constitutional reform ranks behind just
about every other measure you can think of - even more so in a recession.
The usual caveats apply
about it being just one poll, but it shows Labour support perking up in Wales since Jeremy Corbyn's election — Westminster
voting intentions with changes from last month are CON 26 % -LRB--2), LAB 42 % (+5), LDEM 5 % (+1), Plaid 10 % -LRB--2), UKIP 16 % (+1).
This is not necessarily a bad thing — certainly I have grave doubts
about polls done in Lib Dem constituencies that just ask a standard
voting intention question.
Anyway, leaving such speculation behind the bottom line is that, while Clarke again comes out top, the poll doesn't tell us a huge amount
about the respective popularities of Clarke and Davis, when they are put aside the huge impact that Gordon Brown will make on
voting intentions once he takes over.
Jackson said earlier this month he was thinking
about calling for a no confidence
vote at the convention, and reiterated his
intention in a telephone interview on Monday.
Jackson said he has not spoken with Lazio
about his
intention to call for a
vote of no confidence in Cox.
«On his
intentions and on his
votes, that you should talk to him
about.»
Both Ashcroft and ComRes asked a
voting intention question that prompted people to think
about their own constituency, candidates and MP to try and get at the personal and tactical
voting that Lib Dem MPs are so reliant upon.
First it asked people their
voting intention using the standard question, THEN it asked them their
voting intention again saying «thinking
about your own constituency and the parties and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will
vote for in your own constituency at the next general election?»
As in 2011, Lord Ashcroft has asked
voting intention twice in the poll, first asking a standard
voting intention question, then asking people to think specifically
about their own seat and asking how they would
vote there.
As well as the
voting intention Populus also asked
about various Parliamentary reforms.
One of the surveys being connducted by telephone as recently as Sunday, and subsequently leaked on the internet, asked 17 questions
about the Liberal Democrats and asked people to rate a series of statements according to how likely they were to affect their
voting intentions.
The detailed YouGov results provide much information
about second and subsequent preferences, although they predict a rather unrealistic low switch in allegiance in AV first preference
votes from FPTP
voting intentions — both Labour and Tories, for example, are predicted to retain 96 % of their FPTP voters as first preferences which must understate the switch to UKIP and the Greens, for example.
However a lot has been made of the fact that while both polls had an effort to take account of people's personal and tactical
voting behaviour in their own constituency, they did so in different ways — Ashcroft asks a two stage question, asking people their national preference and then how they will
vote thinking
about the candidates and parties in their own constituency; ICM asked people the
voting intention question including the names of the candidates standing in Sheffield Hallam.
The history of SESTA / FOSTA — a bad bill that turned into a worse bill and then was rushed through
votes in both houses of Congress — is a story
about Congress» failure to see that its good
intentions can result in bad law.