So people ought to be getting ready with their excuses, and don't forget that both Gray and NOAA were predicting
an above average hurricane season too!
But the agency has predicted
an above average hurricane season, and that may still hold — most storms form in the second half of the hurricane season, Bell says, which doesn't end until 30 November.
Meteorologists are predicting
an above average hurricane season including 3 major hurricanes, USA Today reports.
Not exact matches
And the next
hurricane season starts in June, with
above -
average storm activity.
The errant forecast said 2013 would see
above -
average activity, with eight
hurricanes and three that would develop into major
hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five - step Saffir - Simpson intensity scale.
However, numbers of
hurricanes in the North Atlantic have also been
above normal (based on 1981 — 2000
averages) in 9 of the last 11 years, culminating in the record - breaking 2005 season.
The Central Pacific also saw an
above -
average tropical cyclone season, with 14 named storms, eight
hurricanes, and five major
hurricanes, the most active season since reliable record - keeping began in 1971.
There are still almost three months to go in the
hurricane season, and there have already been an
above -
average number of named storms.»
I remember headlines many weeks back saying simply we're headed for an
above -
average number of Atlantic
hurricanes, which seems to be the standard, annual forecast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an
above average season with 12 to 16 storms, 6 to 9
hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major
hurricanes on May 22
These events included historic droughts in East Africa, the southern United States and northern Mexico; an
above -
average tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic
hurricane basin and a below -
average season in the eastern North Pacific; and the wettest two - year period (2010 — 2011) on record in Australia.
While the water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is recently about 4º F
above average, a review of major Gulf
hurricanes between 1870 and 2010 by meteorologist Roy Spencer at the University of Alabama in Huntsville revealed that they occurred with equal frequency both when conditions were below and
above average.
«These numbers are well
above the long - term
averages of 4.4 storms and 2.1
hurricanes that would normally have formed by this date.»
Nearly one year after
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic
Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling
hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having
above -
average storm activity, as the seasonal
hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its inactivity.
During much of last year's
hurricane season, sea - surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic between 10 degrees north and 20 degrees north, which is where many Atlantic
hurricanes originate, were a record 0.9 degrees Celsius [1.6 degrees Fahrenheit]
above the 1901 - 1970
average.
¶ An
above -
average storm season, with regard to the probability of major
hurricanes striking the mainland, is facing the US this year, a report from meteorologists at Colorado State University says.
Harvey's rapid intensification from a tropical depression to an 85 - mile - per - hour
hurricane in less than 24 hours was due to favorable conditions — warm water and low wind shear [29]-- in the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures were up to 2.7 - 7.2 °F (1.5 - 4 °C)
above the 1961 - 1990
average.
Regarding the referenced North Atlantic 2010
hurricane predictions calling for
above average activity, the 2009 North Atlantic ACE Index was 52, less than 1/2 of normal.
The
hurricane activity of the 1995 - 2005 period still seems to have been
above average, but there also seem to have been similar active periods in the late 19th century and mid-20th century.
Meanwhile in 2012, we've seen record Arctic ice loss, and the U.S. has faced two record heat waves, a record drought, an
above -
average fire season, and now, an «unprecedented»
hurricane.
If the winter
averages are
above 33 degrees, generally speaking, allowing for minor changes in the climate, we have less glacier and Polar Ice activity and more
hurricane activity.
In the end, the four scientists came up with four
hurricane estimates — similar only in that they were all
above the historic
average.
The figure
above compares the
average track forecast errors in the Atlantic Ocean basin during the past six
hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during thi
hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National
Hurricane Center during thi
Hurricane Center during this period.
This forecast is slightly lower than the outlook issued in May, but remains
above the seasonal
average of 11 named storms, six
hurricanes and two major
hurricanes.
Residents of Caribbean islands and the coastal United States — including those still recovering from last year's storms — may need to brace themselves for another intense
hurricane season, as forecasts predict «
above average» Atlantic storm activity in 2018.
Specifically, the study found that» [d] uring much of last year's
hurricane season, sea - surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic between 10 and 20 degrees north... were a record 1.7 degrees F
above the 1901 - 1970
average,» «global warming explained about 0.8 degrees F of this rise,» while» [a] ftereffects from the 2004 - 05 El Nino accounted for about 0.4 degrees F,» and a natural cycle in sea - surface temperatures «explained less than 0.2 degrees F of the rise.»
NOAA's Atlantic
hurricane outlook reflects an expected continuation of
above -
average activity that began in 1995.
According to James Elsner, a
hurricane specialist at Florida State University, there are two key factors pointing to an
above -
average likelihood that the U.S. will be hit by a
hurricane — possibly a major one — this season.
In making their seasonal outlook, which was released on May 23, NOAA cited a broad area of
above -
average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Basin, a continuation of a natural cycle of
above -
average hurricane activity, and a lack of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean as reasons why there may be more storms this year.