Not exact matches
Between the two of them rattling off various cake and cupcake choices, the loading
bar in the speech bubble
above my head is quickly colliding with a «Fatal
error» pop up window.
If the model
error bars reduce, then the probability of getting the data we see becomes even less than the 3 — 5 % chances I've quoted
above.
Maybe the actuality lies
above the confidence intervals or
error bars.
Wrong
error bars, use 55.3 % confidence intervals for the real and the model, so that 22.36 of the distribution is
above and below the CI.
If the paleo part of the chart has a granularity of 120 years, and the present temps are the annual instrumental record (tortured to bend upwards), then it is clear that the medieval warm period (
error bars) still make it stick up
above the most stretched out hockey stick to date.
It goes from 1C to 10 C. See IPCC figure The
above huge
error bars are not exactly what is called a «small»
error.
You would find that the actual simulations would have a substantially greater
error bar (as in the distribution of 8 year trends we mentioned
above).