It is not hard to recognize that the regions scheduled to get the greatest percentage of
above normal precipitation are also generally the regions that are scheduled to experience the greatest above normal temperatures («A» refers to
above normal precipitation on the NOAA maps, «B» is below normal).
«This pattern will favor continued drought in parts of the South and Southwest from Arizona to Arkansas and Louisiana, and
above normal precipitation in the Northwest and the Tennessee Valley area.»
Himalayan Times: Summer monsoon is approaching and South Asia climate outlook has predicted
above normal precipitation in Nepal.
But, on the wet side of the spectrum, one of the few locations to receive
above normal precipitation this month was Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Despite areas of
above normal precipitation, SWE was generally below 75 % of normal in the northern and central Rockies.
Further east, western Montana and the northern Rockies observed
above normal precipitation.
Precipitation was variable across the West, with scattered areas receiving well
above normal precipitation.
Not exact matches
One potential snag, though, is that while the whole state is expected to see elevated chances of
above -
normal precipitation this winter, it is also expected to see warmer winter temperatures.
Where
precipitation this winter is likely to be
above (green) and below (brown)
normal in the U.S. Click image to enlarge.
Above - and below -
normal temperature and
precipitation years associated with natural climate oscillations may determine whether growing seasons lengthen, contract, or shift in time.
Elsewhere,
precipitation totals ranged between 70 to 90 percent of
normal, except for in western Tennessee, where most stations reported values that were near
normal to slightly
above normal.
Precipitation totals were near to slightly
above normal across much of Louisiana and central Arkansas.
Areas that do not typically receive a large portion of their annual
precipitation in January saw
above normal totals this month.
The wettest locations were found across portions of central Florida, eastern North Carolina, and Tidewater Virginia, where monthly
precipitation departures exceeded 1 to 3 inches (25.4 to 76.2 mm)
above normal.
With this in mind, and given how difficult it can be to dislodge deeply - entrenched ridging such as is currently being observed, I estimate that there is an
above average probability that total
precipitation for water year 2013 - 2014 will be below
normal once again.
«Non-CL» refers to all forecasts where enhanced
above normal or enhanced below
normal temperatures or
precipitation are predicted.
The almanac predicts
above -
normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and
above -
normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February.
The forecast now indicates all of California is likely to see
above -
normal precipitation in the January to March period.
The rest of the Northeast and New England, in a typical El Niño winter, have equal chances of seeing
above - or below -
normal precipitation and temperature, meaning they are not affected by El Niño as much as other locations across the country.
The «timeless» Farmers» Almanac says, «the Southeast will see below
normal winter temperatures with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with
above - average
precipitation.»
However, the contribution of very wet days to total annual
precipitation was
above normal over Europe, largest along the Norwegian Atlantic coast, around the Baltic States and in southeast Europe.
Rick Thoman's weather outlook for the next three months calls for
above -
normal temperatures and
precipitation along the Bering and Chukchi sea coasts.
We've had some warm weather but
precipitation and cloud cover is way up meaning highs were about
normal, more 90 degree highs than June 2007 thru June 2010 but again nothing
above 93.
Places where the 2018 forecast favors well -
above -
normal (green) or well - below -
normal (brown) spring
precipitation.
«And it leads to more of a chance of
above -
normal precipitation across much of the northern parts of the United States.»
Then, as the moisture continues to flow east (further from the epicenter of the engineered cool - down zone),
precipitation transitions to
above normal.
The state has a 33 percent chance of
above - average
precipitation through April, with the numbers climbing as high as 50 percent
above normal in Southern California.
«But with the deficits from the previous 12 months, we'd need a tremendous amount of
above -
normal precipitation to even come close to making up that deficit.
Moreover, he said there are «signs that we're trending toward a strong El Nino event,» which could mean even
above -
normal precipitation.