Sentences with phrase «abrupt changes in the climate system»

What I was suggesting is that you have radically underestimated the potential and reality for abrupt change in the climate system and that you do some research.

If you can imagine this, you have some appreciation of the difficulties of paleoclimate research and of predicting the results of abrupt changes in the climate system.»

That's because the risk of triggering abrupt changes in the climate system — such as rapid sea level rise or widespread droughts — becomes high above one of two degrees warming.

Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation.

A general review of possible abrupt changes in the climate system is Alley et al. (2003).

Not exact matches

Climate scientists are interested in learning more about abrupt climate changes because they indicate that the climate system may have «tipping points.Climate scientists are interested in learning more about abrupt climate changes because they indicate that the climate system may have «tipping points.climate changes because they indicate that the climate system may have «tipping points.climate system may have «tipping points.»

In essence, what we argue for in the NRC abrupt change report is a concern for the possibility that there is indeed some presently unknown switch in the climate system that could reach a threshold of being activated if we perturb the climate sufficiently by increasing GHG concentratioIn essence, what we argue for in the NRC abrupt change report is a concern for the possibility that there is indeed some presently unknown switch in the climate system that could reach a threshold of being activated if we perturb the climate sufficiently by increasing GHG concentratioin the NRC abrupt change report is a concern for the possibility that there is indeed some presently unknown switch in the climate system that could reach a threshold of being activated if we perturb the climate sufficiently by increasing GHG concentratioin the climate system that could reach a threshold of being activated if we perturb the climate sufficiently by increasing GHG concentration.

Braun, H., M. Christl, S. Rahmstorf, A. Ganopolski, A. Mangini, C. Kubatzki, K. Roth, and B. Kromer, 2005: Solar forcing of abrupt glacial climate change in a coupled climate system model.

However, when you look at all the «big picture» evidence of the global system it is clear that there is nothing «natural» about it, in fact it appears that the planet is in early stages of an abrupt change of climate from our «normal» system to one that is much warmer and tropical like.

It turned out things were far more nuanced (as he later said, «The Earth system may be less responsive in the warm times than it was in the cold times»), but in a field that had long mainly foreseen smooth curves for planetary change with rising greenhouse gas levels, the result was a vital focus on the risks of abrupt climate change.

In 2002, the National Academy of Sciences published «Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises,» a valuable report examining whether and how the building human influence on the climate system might lead to disruptiveClimate Change: Inevitable Surprises,» a valuable report examining whether and how the building human influence on the climate system might lead to disruptiveclimate system might lead to disruptive jolts.

Even the relatively staid IPCC has warned of such a scenario: «The possibility of abrupt climate change and / or abrupt changes in the Earth system triggered by climate change, with potentially catastrophic consequences, can not be ruled out.

In the wider field we have people like Wally Broecker who are concerned with abrupt climate change — emergent bahaviour as a result of internal changes in the system — and the implications of dynamic complexity for predictioIn the wider field we have people like Wally Broecker who are concerned with abrupt climate change — emergent bahaviour as a result of internal changes in the system — and the implications of dynamic complexity for predictioin the system — and the implications of dynamic complexity for prediction.

However, the geological record for the climate reflects instances where a relatively small change in one element of climate led to abrupt changes in the system as a whole.

«We found that several vulnerable elements in Earth's climate system — like the Amazon and other big rain forests, like the great ice sheets that have so much sea level locked up in their ice — could be pushed toward abrupt or irreversible change if we go on toward 2100 with our business - as - usual increase in emissions of greenhouse gases,» he said.

In theory the climate system is complex and not linear — so there is abrupt change and not «global warming».

It appears in the climate system as abrupt change that looks very much like a chaotic oscillator.

The plot below originates from work for Ghil's Ph.D. thesis in 1975 and was reproduced in a 2013 World Scientific Review article to illustrate a dynamic definition of climate sensitivity in a climate system that exhibits abrupt change.

The article here reviews abrupt change in simple systems, in a 1 - D climate model and in the climate system at multi-decadal timescales.

This article reviews abrupt change in simple systems, in a 1 - D climate model and in the climate system at multi-decadal timescales.

Its report on the potential for «abrupt climate change» was an update of an earlier report a decade ago, about the potential for the Earth's climate system to shift abruptly in a relatively short period of time if certain breaking points are reached or tipping points are crossed.

Given our understanding of the climate system and the mechanisms involved in abrupt climate change, this committee concludes that human activities could trigger abrupt climate change.

Uniquely and fearlessly AMEG has studied key non-linear trends in the Earth - human System and reached the stunning conclusion that the planet stands at the edge of abrupt and catastrophic climate change as a result of an unprecedented rate of change in the Arctic.

Climate in this theory of abrupt change is an emergent property of the shift in global energies as the system settles down into a new, emergent climateClimate in this theory of abrupt change is an emergent property of the shift in global energies as the system settles down into a new, emergent climateclimate state.

He sums it up this way: «The climate science establishment is so focused on the fight to reduce CO2 emissions that it has ignored the bigger picture: that the Earth System is hurtling towards a new climate regime for the planet, led by abrupt changes in the Arctic as it becomes seasonally free of sea ice.

In climate we are talking about abrupt change in complex and dynamic systemIn climate we are talking about abrupt change in complex and dynamic systemin complex and dynamic systems.

Abrupt climate change happens when the system is pushed past a threshold and transitions to a new state that is determined by shifts in cloud, wind, ice, currents and biology.

«The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual,... It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate..»

«The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm... there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both... [We] suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies... It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate.»

The orientation of these features at the Bahamas and Bermuda points to a very large and extremely energetic and weather systems in the North Atlantic Ocean at this critical time of abrupt climate change.

This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what may be coming in the future.

Chaotic processes in the climate system may allow the cause of such an abrupt climate change to be undetectably small.»

The definition of abrupt climate change mentions chaotic elements in the climate system.

But it is unclear whether or not the 1976 regime shift in North Pacific climate reflects an abrupt change in the extratropical atmosphere - ocean system or simply the random superposition of different climate signals, e.g., similar regime - shifts are reproducible in simple stochastic models forced by atmospheric noise and ENSO (Newman et al., 2003).

In addition to a changing climate causing changes in extreme events, extreme events themselves can accelerate abrupt changes in other parts of the climate and Earth systeIn addition to a changing climate causing changes in extreme events, extreme events themselves can accelerate abrupt changes in other parts of the climate and Earth systein extreme events, extreme events themselves can accelerate abrupt changes in other parts of the climate and Earth systein other parts of the climate and Earth system.

Equally, there seems little doubt that we are changing the energy dynamics of chaotic Earth systems in ways that add to the potential for abrupt climate change.

Abrupt climate change is defined as a large scale change in the climate system which takes place over a few decades or less and is anticipated to persist for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruption in human and natural systems.

An unintended consequence of this strategy is that there has been very little left over for true climate modeling innovations and fundamental research into climate dynamics and theory — such research would not only support amelioration of deficiencies and failures in the current climate modeling systems, but would also lay the foundations for disruptive advances in our understanding of the climate system and our ability to predict emergent phenomena such as abrupt climate change.

We define abrupt climate change as a large - scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems (see Glossary).

The dynamical mechanism — control variables that push the system past a threshold triggering a cascade of changes — is the key to understanding the changing trajectory of 20th century, the current hiatus, abrupt variability over the Holocene and longer and the uncertainties in anticipating 21st century climate evolution and longer.

Chapter 12: Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projClimate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projeChange: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projechange, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projClimate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projechange commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projechange and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate change projechange projections

Abrupt climate changes, such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the rapid loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet or large - scale changes of ocean circulation systems, are not considered likely to occur in the 21st century, based on currently available model results.

Both abrupt changes in the physical climate system and steady changes in climate that can trigger abrupt changes in other physical, biological, and human systems present possible threats to nature and society.

That would perhaps allay fears that we could be pushing the system towards an abrupt climate change in the future.

Several vulnerable elements in the climate system, such as continental ice sheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon, and others, could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business - as - usual way throughout this century.

In all of these connections, effects can be positive as well as negative; but extreme climate events and other abrupt changes tend to affect human systems more severely than gradual change, because they offer less time for adaptation, although gradual changes may also reach thresholds at which effects are notable.