Sentences with phrase «abrupt climate»

This will only be meaningful if climate science returns to Square One and reexamine what drivers are important in a theory of abrupt climate change.

The NAS publication in 2002 — Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises — contains what is still a good summary and the title moreover suggests — well — inevitable surprises.

263 Thomas F. Stocker, Olivier Marchal, «Abrupt climate change in the computer: Is it real?»

A theory of abrupt climate change means you discard all linearized models or admit that [CO2] is not a factor in any significant linear term involving an abrupt driver.

While abrupt climate change is regarded as a possibility based upon paleoclimatic evidence of previous events, climate models are incapable of producing such emergent phenomena.

Up to this point in the abrupt climate change story, none of the broad conclusions is particularly speculative.

Abrupt climate shifts do not occur with the absolute randomness you seem to imply.

The second that the NASA modelling of abrupt climate change in the 8.2 ky event was entirely consistent with the paper you quoted and many others.

Wallace S. Broecker, «Abrupt climate change: causal constraints provided by the paleoclimate record,» Earth - Science Reviews 51:137 - 154 (August 2000).

Thus, while we like to find evidence of large events in many distant locations, local changes can be instructive examples of abrupt climate change, if properly dated.»

The book contains far more detail on abrupt climate change than the others.

The NASA page I linked to used modelled the younger the 8.2 ky event as an abrupt climate change for which there is some evidence — and for which they find a 50 % slow down of the MOC is implicated.

«Researchers first became intrigued by abrupt climate change when they discovered striking evidence of large, abrupt, and widespread changes preserved in paleoclimatic archives.

I remain very concerned about abrupt climate change, but I am also working to demonstrate that if you accept the IPCC framing of the climate change problem, e.g. «forced», that models are over sensitive and the sensitivity is lower than inferred from climate models.

Re: «What is meaningful is the possibility of a scenario of abrupt climate change.

The concept of abrupt climate change does not figure into any estimate of equilibrium sensitivity that I am aware of.

«Here we propose a series of events beginning in the lower latitudes and leading to changes in the ocean and atmosphere that reveal for the first time the anatomy of abrupt climate change,» the authors wrote.

219 Discovery of Younger Dryas: Dorothy Peteet, «Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change,» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.) 97 (4): 1359 - 1361 (15 February 2000) at http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/4/1359

Abrupt climate change has happened many times in the long ice core records.

A UNIFIED MODELING APPROACH TO CLIMATE SYSTEM PREDICTION (2009) Hurrell et al There are all sorts of resources across the web on abrupt climate change over almost 2 decades now.

Favourite plays include hyper - focus on one, extremely speculative study (T&S 09); misrepresenting the potential for abrupt cooling in the C21st, dismissing the dominance of the centennial forced trend, misrepresenting deglacial abrupt climate change; grossly over-stating the accuracy and utility of pre-CERES TOA reconstructions (especially the synthetic, non-observational ISCCP - FD reconstruction); hyper - focus on interannual OHC variability; confusion of cause and effect with long - term trends in OHC (CO2 forcing denial) and general inability to see that natural variability from now on will be riding up a forced trend which will increasingly dominate climate behaviour.

He thinks that we can look to paleoclimate as evidence for abrupt climate change — and indeed we can — but the examples he has to use are those of abrupt change during deglaciation (YD) or during glacial climate (D - O; Heinrich; Bond).

Using chemical tracers in sediment that builds up on the sea floor over time, Henry and his co-authors were able to document the relative speed of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during each abrupt climate change.

«Our study supports the view that changes in ocean circulation were at least in part responsible for causing abrupt climate changes.

The past cycles and abrupt climate change events occurred for a reason.

Axel Timmermann, a professor of oceanography at the University of Hawaii who studies abrupt climate changes and was not involved in this study, called it a «breakthrough analysis.»

The question is not if but how the solar serial climate changer causes the cyclic gradual (mediavel warm period and the little ice age) and abrupt climate change (abrupt termination of the last 22 interglacial periods.

Gradual, insolation - driven millennial - scale temperature trends in the study area were punctuated by several abrupt climate changes, including a major transient event recorded in all five lakes between 4.3 and 3.2 ka, which overlaps in timing with abrupt climate changes previously documented around the North Atlantic region and farther afield at w4.2 ka.

The new study explores what happened to ocean circulation when the Earth went through a series of abrupt climate changes in the past, during a time when ice covered part of North America and temperatures were colder than today.

Also unclear is why these abrupt climate shifts, also seen in previous ice ages, haven't happened in the past 10,000 years.

Those abrupt climate changes wreaked havoc on ecosystems, but their cause has been something of a mystery.

The scientists stress that more work is needed to determine whether changes in ocean circulation initiated the abrupt climate changes or were an intermediary effect initially triggered by something else.

There have been roughly a hundred published papers which try to explain the mechanisms by which solar changes and geomagnetic field changes cause cyclic and abrupt climate change.

«People have long supposed this link between overturning circulation and these abrupt climate events.

Müller, J. & Stein, R. High - resolution record of late glacial and deglacial sea ice changes in Fram Strait corroborates ice - ocean interactions during abrupt climate shifts.

WHAT ABOUT ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE RISK?

But upward growth curves are especially relevant when you have something like abrupt climate change that can pump you up the curve.

ABSTRACT An ice core removed from the Upper Fremont Glacier in Wyoming provides evidence for abrupt climate change during the mid-1800s....

At the darkest end of the spectrum are groups like Deep Green Resistance, which openly advocates sabotage to «industrial infrastructure,» and the thousands who visit the Web site and attend the speeches of Guy McPherson, a biology professor at the University of Arizona who concluded that renewables would do no good, left his job, and moved to an off - grid homestead to prepare for abrupt climate change.

He has written several books on climate, e.g., «The Two - Mile Time Machine: Ice cores, abrupt climate change, and our future» (2002), and has made a number of TV appearances.

As understanding abrupt climate change becomes increasingly crucial, ambitious plans for studying these icy environs will be ever more important.

Abrupt climate change has happened historically, without human help.

We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

Maybe, but there is always a risk of abrupt climate change, especially towards the end of each interglacial.

We are not really convinced that «global warming» is an adequate meme in the context of abrupt climate change.

In a report released yesterday in Washington by the National Research Council, the research arm of the National Academy of Sciences, a panel of 11 scientists examined the possibility of abrupt climate change, in which small events can bring on rapid and great consequences.

When the climates of the more local high - latitude Pacific and Atlantic sectors varied in parallel, large, abrupt climate fluctuations occurred on a more global scale.

Famine from abrupt climate shifts has been equally dramatic and even faster, with some isolated populations wiped out entirely on many occasions.

This goes to the question of abrupt climate change in the past, and what role do both positive and negative feedbacks play.

In fact, here's an article discussing the process that scientists went through in the 20th century as they came to grips with the evidence of abrupt climate change.