Sentences with phrase «abrupt shifts»

The possibility of abrupt shifts concealed in the uncertainty band was pointed out by von Storch et al. (2004), but their conclusion that the graph was faulty overall was refuted by Wahl et al. (2006).

Applying the same logic, any of the 20th Century History runs which exhibited similar abrupt shifts (Southern Ocean sea - ice, Tibetan plateau snow melt and N Atlantic convection) which were not observed in the realworld, should have also been excluded from the ensemble mean for Marvel et al to have any hope of credibly extending inferences to realworld observational data — even if we suspend disbelief with respect to other problems associated with data, methods and relevance.

Multi-decadal regime shift — chaotic — unpredictable — involving abrupt shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation — show the dynamical mechanism at the core of climate on a global scale.

Chief rambles on but the fact is that there has been no change which shows any of the characteristics of the abrupt shifts to which he constantly refers to — look at the last 130 years and you won't see anything like that.

The evidence of abrupt shifts that turned up in occasional studies may seem strong in retrospect, but at the time it was not particularly convincing.

Collectively the processes produce 20 to 30 year warmer or cooler regimes of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature — and abrupt shifts between that may be triggered by UV / ozone chemistry modulation of the polar annular modes.

The pause can be made sense of in terms of the timing of abrupt shifts between states of ENSO frequency and intensity.

Such things as drops of 10 degrees in places in as little as a decade and abrupt shifts in hydrology and ocean states.

You have simply restated your case which essentially relies on the absence of abrupt shifts of climate to fundamentally different states.

The most characteristic behaviour of the Grand Climate System is relatively stable states punctuated by abrupt shifts that owe more to internal dynamics of the system as a whole than external factors such as greenhouse gases.

Global rainfall, ecological and flood records likewise show evidence for abrupt shifts and regimes that persist for decades.

There are many other abrupt shifts in the paleo records.

By contrast, during the preceding 100,000 years, climate underwent frequent, very large, and often extremely abrupt shifts.

3 is the right answer of course — but the problem of abrupt shifts in climate is not simple and predictable.

That is abrupt shifts in the climate system that are captured in these modes of atmospheric and ocean circulation.

Climate shifts involve abrupt shifts in ENSO, PDO, AMO, SAM.

In climate data the reality is Hurst effects — regimes and abrupt shifts.

The rules of chaos include regimes and abrupt shifts that feature in climate data over all scales.

---- Mayewski, 2016 http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-2567.pdf «The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard - Oeschger (D - O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world.

It is characterized by abrupt shifts between states and multiple equilibria.

The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the «relative climate quiescence» of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D - O events.»

The abrupt shifts in Pacific Ocean circulation involve changes in the PDO in the north - eastern Pacific and coincident changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events.

Abrupt shifts in Earth systems were observed many times in the last century.

Dynamical complexity explains both persistence and abrupt shifts in climate data — and demands that we change our expectations about future behaviour from slow and gradual to abrupt and potentially large.

Robert I Ellison: Dynamical complexity explains both persistence and abrupt shifts in climate data — and demands that we change our expectations about future behaviour from slow and gradual to abrupt and potentially large.

Global rainfall and flood records likewise show evidence for abrupt shifts and regimes that persist for decades.

In many cases abrupt shifts are so obvious that I wonder why traditional climatologists appear not to have noticed them.

Drijfhout, S., Bathiany, S., Beaulieu, C., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Huntingford, C., Scheffer, M., Sgubin, G. and Swingedouw, D. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models PNAS 2015 112 (43) E5777 - E5786; published ahead of print October 12, 2015, doi: 10.1073 / pnas.1511451112 link

Thus we have presumably some warming from greenhouse gases that can't effectively be distinguished from a backdrop of large and abrupt shifts in a dynamically complex climate system.

discontinuous, abrupt shifts.

Among the abrupt shifts that the report says have a low probability of occurring in this century but pose higher risks after 2100 are the following:

event in 536 AD, the Mayan collapse around 800 AD, and the Norse colony collapse in Greenland to make his case that societies can be vulnerable to abrupt shifts in rainfall, temperature etc..

These changes — abrupt shifts between quasi equilibrium states occurred at the mid 1940's, 1976/77 and 1998/2001.

Applying the same logic, any of the 20th Century History runs which exhibited similar abrupt shifts (Southern Ocean sea - ice, Tibetan plateau snow melt and N Atlantic convection) which were not observed in the real - world, should have also been excluded from the ensemble mean for Marvel et al to have any hope of credibly extending inferences to real - world observational data — even if we suspend disbelief with respect to other problems associated with data, methods and relevance.

Addressing judgment in New Casualism, Butler states: «If the viewer leaves a show of paintings agitated by their abrupt shifts, crosscurrents, and purposeful lack of formal cohesion, the work has succeeded.»

Her sharp sense of geometric formalism is evident in the jarring juxtapositions she presents between flat, painterly abstractions of light and abrupt shifts in volume and depth.

Given this type of transmission, there were no fixed gears to cause abrupt shifts under acceleration.

A couple more gears would have lead to less abrupt shifts and possibly greater fuel economy, really putting the Mazda3 on par with the luxury competition.

The six - speed automatic made a couple abrupt shifts during a day of driving, but gear changes were otherwise smooth and the transmission readily kicked down a few gears for more passing power.

They still progress logically but with abrupt shifts in place, time, and feeling, and the flow and tempo of the movie are off.

The film earns plenty of laughs before some abrupt shifts in tone during its second half.

Director - screenwriter Chris Zonnas knows how to use his actors well, but he's challenged by the film's own abrupt shifts in tone.

Either the wheels entirely come off what had been a carefully wound psychological drama, or the enterprise merely morphs into a madcap sitcom, depending on ones tolerance for abrupt shifts in tone.

What if the cinematic approach to the poet's life could approximate her eccentric punctuation — full of dashes where commas usually roam — her abrupt shifts in focus, and her piercing gaze at eternity?

It's even been shown that within the same individual that factors such as hormonal fluctuations, dietary changes, abrupt shifts in stress levels and sexual activity can elicit alterations in the population of the microflora.

And just last year, climatologist Jonathan Overpeck warned that humanity is at danger of forcing «abrupt shifts to drier conditions, including possible decadal megadrought.»

event in 536 AD, the Mayan collapse around 800 AD, and the Norse colony collapse in Greenland to make his case that societies can be vulnerable to abrupt shifts in rainfall, temperature etc..

But those tweaks can come with compromises: jerky motions and abrupt shifts in low - speed driving.

Evoking the mystery and the suddenness of the characters» deaths by means of abrupt shifts in viewpoint and by the use of white space, Greene makes of death a strange departure for an unknown destination.

They will rightly resent abrupt shifts in, or abandonment of, the metaphors that have proved most meaningful in their spiritual pilgrimages.