A cursory analysis of the past 10,000 years global reconstructions quickly shows that there has not been a single significant
abrupt warming event.
Without looking it up, was the scientific paper that inspired the NAS report all about shutting down the AMOC and abruptly cooling the planet, or was it about
an abrupt warming event?
«Minimal Geological Methane Emissions During the Younger Dryas - Preboreal
Abrupt Warming Event.»
Minimal geologic methane emissions during Younger Dryas - Preboreal
abrupt warming event.
The Paleogene is an interesting time to study because global climate changed dramatically during that interval — including
an abrupt warming event around 55 million years ago.
Saha, 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015PA002809/full «During the last ice age there were several quasiperiodic
abrupt warming events.
Not exact matches
If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past
abrupt climate - change
events, it seems less likely that such dramatic
abrupt changes will occur due to global
warming, when extensive sea - ice cover will not be present.
If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past
abrupt climate - change
events, it seems less likely that such dramatic
abrupt changes will occur due to global
warming, when extensive sea - ice cover will not be present.
I would also add that the «prediction» made by # 11 about what a D - O
event would look like is based on the Greenland ice core records, and the picture of «
abrupt warming / slow cooling» picture comes from the data on millennial timescales.
To the extent that this
abrupt cooling
event can be identified with ocean dynamics, regardless of whether it involves the GSA or an
abrupt change in the intensity of the AMOC, it provides a plausible explanation of why the NH
warmed less rapidly from around the time of the end of WW II to 1980 than the SH.
Some climate denialists continue to try and argue that rather than with a steady man - made
warming signal, the data are better fit with
abrupt step changes caused by El Niño
events, followed by flat periods.
As a public scholar with expertise in paleoclimate science, I communicate alarming, difficult information about the consequences to Earth and ocean systems that have come with past
events of
abrupt climate
warming.
It is a fact that there are cyclic
warming and cooling
events (periodicity 1400 years plus or minus a beat timing of 500 years) in the paleo record and roughly every 8000 years to 12,000 years the cooling is
abrupt and there is a larger magnitude change.
Those
abrupt global
warming events were almost always highly destructive for life, causing mass extinctions such as at the end of the Permian, Triassic, or even mid-Cambrian periods.
The last two
abrupt warmings at the onset of our present
warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling
event, are investigated in high temporal resolution from the Greenland NGRIP ice core.
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic
warming that are so common, we outline an
abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100 - year
event that occurred about 8,200 years ago.
The step up in average temperatures during the ENSO cycle looks a lot more like a chaotic
abrupt event than it does like CO2 induced
warming.
Warming from CO2 has dropped to the bottom of my list of potential «Planet Killers» — although from a Gaian point of view, there are so many interacting challenges to the biosphere now, who knows what kinds of cascades could trigger some kind of abrupt warming or cooling event — maybe not stemming fro
Warming from CO2 has dropped to the bottom of my list of potential «Planet Killers» — although from a Gaian point of view, there are so many interacting challenges to the biosphere now, who knows what kinds of cascades could trigger some kind of
abrupt warming or cooling event — maybe not stemming fro
warming or cooling
event — maybe not stemming from GHGs.
of
warming and cooling (roughly 0.8 C
warming and cooling followed occasionally by (with a super cycle of 2400 years and 8000 years) of
abrupt cooling
events of 2C to 4C.
The AGW supporters are rightly concerned about climate change, however, the problem is
abrupt cooling (the -2 C to -4 C
events) not gradual
warming.
Paleoclimate records from ice cores, marine sediment cores, and speleothems (stalagmites and stalactites) have demonstrated that
abrupt Northern Hemisphere cooling and Southern Hemisphere
warming occurred in response to Heinrich
events.
The interglacial and the glacial planetary temperature data shows cycles of
warming and cooling interrupted by very strong «RCEs» (Rickies) Rapid Climatic Change
Events (For example the Younger Dryas
abrupt cooling
event and the termination of the last interglacial).
According to the researchers, the first
abrupt warming period beginning at 14,700 years ago lasted until about 12,900 years ago, when deep - freeze conditions returned for about 1,200 years before the onset of the second sharp
warming event.
Once a temperature threshold is breached,
abrupt events follow due to amplifying feedbacks, even within a few years, examples being (1) freeze
events which followed temperature peaks during past interglacial peaks due to influx of cold ice - melt water into the north Atlantic Ocean; (2) the Dansgaard — Oeschger
warming events during the last glacial period; (3) the Younger dryas stadial freeze and the Laurentian stadial freeze.
As if this were not daunting enough, in 2002 the US National Academies of Science not only endorsed the IPCC's conclusions but produced a new report entitled
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable surprises, which argued that global warming may trigger «large, abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic events» such as severe droughts and f
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable surprises, which argued that global
warming may trigger «large,
abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic events» such as severe droughts and f
abrupt and unwelcome regional or global climatic
events» such as severe droughts and floods.
There are no global
warming abrupt changes in the Holocene once the thermal maximum is reached, just cooling
events followed by recovery.
Around 55 million years ago, an
abrupt global
warming event triggered a highly corrosive deep - water current to flow through the North Atlantic Ocean.
It is worth considering though that we do have several high resolution proxy climate records from various regions around the world (think ice cores), and if
abrupt global
warming events happened in the past, then we might expect these local records to show them.....