I was referring to the plot of
absolute average surface temperatures from different models against the projected rate of warming for 2011 to 2070 from those same models; this is the next to last graphic from Gavin's post.
Not exact matches
What I find most interesting is that the models are not normally distributed in calculated
average surface temperature; there is a relatively tight cluster of models (22 data points) around 14.7 + / - 0.15 C
absolute temperature and the rest spread out over 12.3 C to 14.1 C; perhaps the clustered models are based on common assumptions an / or strategies which lead to a relatively consistent calculated
average surface temperature.
The second is that the «
average»
absolute global mean «
surface»
temperature is only accurate to about + / - 2 C degrees, includes «sub-
surface temperatures averaged with above
surface temperatures at varying altitudes.
By assuming that the
absolute value of the «
average»
surface temperature common to both the atmosphere and oceans is 4 - 5 C lower than the actual, there would be considerable error wouldn't there?
The
average absolute value of the air
temperature close to the Earth's
surface hit a new record in July.
Absolute estimates of global
average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons.
The chart plots the
absolute global
averages for both
surfaces and atmospheric
temperatures since the major 1998 El Niño peak.
Sensitivity equals dT / dF is only valid for an
absolute temperature and
absolute forcing over a small range of change and since the current «state of the artistry» «
surface temperature average» requires using anomaly from very cold locations with very little energy per degree of anomaly, what «
surface» is
averaged impacts the estimate of «sensitivity».
Somewhere along the gradient (the
surface if all outgoing energy directly radiated to space, or the
AVERAGE altitude of outgoing to incoming energy balance for a real atmosphere), an
absolute temperature has to be determined to give the rest of the slope actual
temperatures.
The
average absolute humidity also increases between the clouds and the ocean
surface with increasing
temperatures.
Doing this on a year - to - year basis shows NO apparent correlation with the
absolute «globally and annually
averaged land and sea
surface temperature anomaly» (i.e. HadCRUT3), but does show a weak correlation with the CHANGE in
temperature from the previous year, for example:
The
average absolute temperature on land is ~ 5C cooler than the
average absolute temperature at the sea
surface.
(See NCDC Global
Surface Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that month.
Surface Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that mo
Temperature Anomalies) The same file states «The global monthly
surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that month.
surface temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period average) to obtain an absolute estimate of surface temperature for that mo
temperature averages in the table below can be added to a given month's anomaly (departure from the 1880 to 2004 base period
average) to obtain an
absolute estimate of
surface temperature for that month.
surface temperature for that mo
temperature for that month.»
If the atmosphere contained no IR - absorbing substances, then all the IR emitted by the earth's
surface would escape into space and radiative balance would dictate that the earth's
average surface temperature (or really the
average of emissivity * T ^ 4 where T is the
absolute temperature and the emissivity of most terrestrial materials in the wavelength range of interest is very close to 1) is set by the condition that the earth must radiate as much energy as it absorbs from the sun.
LOBALLY -
AVERAGED land and sea
surface absolute temperature TS has not risen since 1998 (Hadley Center; US National Climatic Data Center; University of Alabama at Huntsville; etc.).