Not exact matches
This is in line with the
predictions of the Standard
Model, the currently
accepted theory
of matter.
Last year's melt isn't some death - blow to the idea
of modeling, particularly because there is an
accepted hypothesis (the pro-icemelt weather conditions) which supplements the
model predictions to explain what we observed.
I should add that I do see the value
of models but can not
accept without comment the post's conclusion ``... we need to let science run its course and let previous
model - based
predictions of somewhere between «2040 and 2100 ″ stand.»
I believe
model predictions have been the subject
of bet challenges before (and no one has
accepted one to my knowledge so why would this group.)
Levine, R.C., Turner, A.G., Marathayil, D. and Martin, G.M. (
accepted Dec 2012), The role
of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5
model simulations and future
predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, in press, Climate Dynamics., DOI 10.1007 / s00382 -012-1656-x link
The 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report that governments
accept as certain
predictions of future weather says, «In climate research and
modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.»
What many
of us have trouble
accepting are the results
of model «experiments» as true and accurate
predictions of the future.
Yes, it is possible that natural variability could cause actual temperatures to fall outside the range
of model predictions without invalidating the
models, but I'm not yet ready to
accept model outputs under these conditions.
Previous apparent trends (eg 1880 - 1910, 1910 - 1940) had all abruptly ended, there was no reason to assume things would be different in 1988 - unless you
accept the
model's
prediction,
of course... which is precisely the point.
Quite egalitarian, so in fact contrarians, scientists who hold ideas outside
of the mainstream can prosper provided their ideas have some factual basis and use the scientific method (Scientific method: based on existing obervations pose an hypothesis; using new observations or experiments, test the
predictions of that hypothesis; on the basis
of the new data either reject the hypothesis or modify it to fit the better understanding, or
accept that the initial hypothesis was right at which point it becomes a «theory» or explanatory
model).
In the disciplines where I work, the
model has to make reliable
predictions for all key variables
of that system for at least 95 %
of the time the system is operational for someone to
accept that as a good
model for that system.