Not exact matches
All this discussion of the Schmittner et al paper should not distract from the point that Hansen and others (including RichardC in # 40 and William P in # 24) try to make: that there seems to be a significant risk that climate sensitivity could be on the higher end of the various ranges, especially if we include the
slower feedbacks and take into
account that these could kick in faster than generally assumed.
I am curious as to what additional
slower «earth - system»
feedbacks might be indicated by the release of the methane... i.e. what kind of biological changes might occur to arctic regions by the melting of permafrost and release of methane that will add a longer - term
feedback response that needs to
accounted for before any sort of new equalibrium would be reached.
And it would appear that the projections by the IPCC have been almost entirely limited to those which take into
account the «fast»
feedbacks, not the «
slow»
feedbacks.
You underscore a problem:
accounting for «
slow»
feedbacks suppose that a climate model or a carbon cycle model run for centuries.
All climate models used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) take into
account the
feedback related to plants, which
slows down climate change, but its strength has been difficult to estimate.
Critcisms of the energy budget model approach are that it is sensitive to uncertainties in observations and doesn't
account for
slow feedbacks between the atmosphere, deep oceans and ice sheets.
The growth and decay of continental ice sheets represents a
slow feedback operating over millennia; if one is concerned with the more rapid response of the climate to CO2, ice sheets have to be
accounted for as a major forcing.
And this, critically, is true even if none of Jim Hansen's
slow feedbacks are taken into
account.
Simply extrapolating historical trends also does not
account for
feedbacks in the system, such as the negative ice thickness - ice growth rate
feedback identified by Bitz and Roe (2004) that can
slow the ice volume rate of loss.