Sentences with phrase «accurately model past»

However, there a couple of recent discussions on the accuracy of climate model feedbacks on the credibility of model assumptions and on ability of models to accurately model past known climate change on Anthony Watts» blog that I think are pertinent to this debate and interesting:

Not exact matches

Despite these flaws, global models are increasingly credible: when fed the factors at play in climate over the past 100 years, they accurately match what has been observed to occur.

«Once these models can predict past changes, they can more accurately predict what will happen with future climate changes.»

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers Priyadip Ray (left) and Brenden Petersen and their teams, using machine learning algorithms, have developed computer models that can more accurately characterize a patient's progression through stages of sepsis and better predict mortality risk by integrating past medical history, real - time vital signs and other diagnostics.

The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes.

The first explains how those climate models showing the darkest future, can most accurately show the past 25 years as well.

It can simply serve as a gatekeeper for rating teaching practice; maybe more accurately than past evaluation models, but no better in actually developing one's capacity to teach more effectively.

Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting, sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree

If the number of inputs is many, then the model can be tweaked easily to match past data without giving us much confidence that the future is accurately predicted.

«Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past?

Climate models have accurately reproduced the past, but let's put them aside for a moment.

«Here we have something more fundamental: Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past?

For example, Kosaka and Xie showed than when the El Niño - related changes in Pacific ocean temperature are entered into a model, it not only reproduced the global surface warming over the past 15 years but it also accurately reproduced regional and seasonal changes in surface temperatures.

More often, models have been tested by hindcasting — they are forced with a known change starting at a past known climate state, and asked whether they can accurately project the output (e.g., a temperature change resulting from a change in CO2, solar forcing, etc.)?

You'll need to be okay with not understanding why CO2 lags temperature, why its predicted effects do not match observed climate measurements, or why the IPCC's general circulation models can not predict short - term, regional, or even past climate changes accurately.

Then the authors use the observed, or more accurately described «reconstructed,» flux anomalies over the Arctic for the past three decades to force a forward ocean model.

The usual snake oil salesmen then came up with various experts / studies that tried to make the unbelievable believable: IPCC climate models accurately reflect past and current temperature trends.

The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes.

2) CAGW movement type models never reconstruct any lengthy past history accurately without creative and unique adjustment of aerosol values used as a fudge factor; that is why models of widely varying sensitivities supposedly all accurately reconstruct the past (different made - up assumed historical values used for each) but fail in future prediction, like they didn't predict how global average temperatures have been flat to declining over the past 15 years.

I had a Warmist insist that when you feed in all the data the models accurately reconstruct the past.

These changes in tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs over the past millennium have often been associated with internal variability of the ocean - atmosphere system [19,27,53,54] that may not be accurately represented in current climate models.

Climate Change Reconsidered explains why climate models fail to accurately describe climate conditions, forcings, and feedbacks (Chapter 1) and how their forecast have failed to predict the lack of warming during the past 16 years (Chapter 4).

To check whether the climate model accurately responds to solar forcing, global temperature was modelled over past periods of Grand Minima such as the Maunder and Dalton Minima.

A «science» based on computer models that can't even accurately «predict» known climate conditions from the past, but we can be sure that they can accurately predict unknown climate conditions a hundred years in the future.

A: Climate models are tested against what we know happened in the past and they do accurately map past climate changes.

The historic period was also analysed, and the results showed that the models can accurately reproduce the observed rise in monthly heat extremes over the past 50 years.

To be predictive, any model of future climate should also accurately model known climate and greenhouse gas variations recorded in the geologic history of the past 200,000 years.

Over the past 10 years, however, an alternative school of thought has emerged: that detailed microphysics need not be included in models in order to accurately simulate tropical tropospheric humidity.

Given the reliance on models surely no model can be validated or verified unless it can reproduce past events accurately?

Given information from past automobile accidents, auto insurance companies can accurately model losses from future accidents using only the age and gender of a large group of drivers.

Alarmists continue to proclaim that their models project a rapid acceleration of sea level rise over the next 30 to 70 years, when those same models have failed to even come close to accurately measuring the past 25 years.

How is it possible that a model that accurately represents the past fails to accurately predict the future?

There are two major questions in climate modeling - can they accurately reproduce the past (hindcasting) and can they successfully predict the future?