As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already
high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we
also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at
higher valuations than most bulls have
achieved, a flat
yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Paying yourself first, which simply means to save money in a
high yield savings account prior to paying any bills, is not only a great financial resolution to have, but can
also help you
achieve many of your clear and concise financial goals (see # 1).
High -
yield debt in both the US and international bond ETFs
also got a boost after
yield - seeking investors moved longer on the
yield curve and into riskier debt securities to
achieve better returns on their investment capital.