Sentences with phrase «achieve peak earnings»

Not exact matches

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

For example, during the 10 years beginning in 1964 (when the price / peak earnings ratio approached 20 for the first time since 1929), the S&P 500 achieved a total return of close to zero, including dividends.

That was a bit worse than even the estimate based on a terminal P / E of 7, because the brutal 1974 bottom formed a sharp but temporary «V.» In contrast, in the 10 years beginning in 1990 (when the price / peak - earnings ratio was close to 11), the S&P 500 achieved a total return of fully 20 % annually.

This substantially exceeded the 10 - year return of about 14 % which would have been achieved had the 2000 bull market peak been held to a P / E of 20 (the market's actual price / peak - earnings ratio moved over 32 during the bubble).

In 1916, on the eve of US involvement in World War I, real per share earnings for a capitalization - weighted market portfolio peaked and did not achieve a new high, adjusted for inflation, until the end of 1950, 34 years later.