When accounting for
actual GHG emissions, the IPCC average «Best» model projection of 0.2 °C per decade is within the uncertainty range of the observed rate of warming (0.15 ± 0.08 °C) per decade since 1990.
As this figure shows, even without accounting for
the actual GHG emissions since 1990, the warming projections are consistent with the observations, within the margin of uncertainty.
-- The main issue is that
our actual GHG emissions have pretty much exceeded or are in the «worse - case» scenarios projected in the past.
In fact, despite the almost universal acceptance by nations of the 2 °C warming limit,
the actual ghg emission targets and timetables chosen by almost all nations do not meet the levels of emissions reductions specified by IPCC as necessary to keep atmospheric concentrations below 450 ppm and thereby achieve the 2 °C warming limit.
Not exact matches
Peter Kent: But that will do nothing to get
GHG actual emissions down.
There is no way to humanely reduce population growth, leading to an
actual decrease in population, leading to an
actual decrease in anthropogenic
GHG emissions, in that time frame.
Why don't you take up an earlier suggestion from Ross McKitrick and endorse (in summary here) that
GHG emissions be taxed proportional to the
actual global temperature change?
The
actual GHG radiative forcing in 2011 was approximately 2.8 W / m2, so to this point, we're actually closer to the IPCC FAR's lower
emissions scenarios.
PS IPCC had predicted warming of 0.15 to 0.3 C per decade in TAR and 0.2 C per decade in AR4 — yet in
actual fact, lolwot, we saw «no warming» despite unabated human
GHG emissions.
In
actual fact, the rate of human CO2
emissions (the principal
GHG) increased to 1.9 % per year (based on CDIAC data).
The steepness of these curves superimposed on
actual national
ghg emissions levels is an indication of the enormity of the challenge for the international community because the
emissions reduction curves are much steeper than reductions that can be expected under projections of what current national commitments are likely to achieve if fully implemented.
As per the Revised IPCC Guidelines for national
GHG inventory (1996), the potential
emission values are used only in case of unavailability of the
actual emission values.
It's pretty hard to «overinterpret» a 10 + year stop in global warming (
actual slight cooling instead), despite unabated human
GHG emissions and concentrations reaching record levels, plus IPCC model - based predictions of 0.2 C per decade warming.
The
actual temperature trend was essentially the same as Hansen's «Scenario C», which assumed total phase - out of
GHG emissions from 1990 to 2000
The
actual amount of
emissions reductions that are needed between now and 2020 is somewhat of a moving target depending on the level of uncertainty that society is willing to accept that a dangerous warming limit will be exceeded, the most recent increases in
ghg emissions rates, and assumptions about when global
ghg emissions peak before beginning rapid reduction rates.
The only appropriate test is to examine whether the relationship embodied in the physics of the models holds between
actual emissions and observed temperatures, not between observations from
actual emissions and «what if» scenarios with wholly different
GHG histories.
The SAR included various human
GHG emissions scenarios, so far its scenarios IS92a and b have been closest to
actual emissions.
In this case, your unsupported generalization that «the electorate could not care less» about climate change was rebutted with
actual opinion polls showing that significant majorities of «the electorate» do, in fact, care a good deal, and consider the issue a priority for the President and the Congress, and support policies to regulate
GHG emissions and to hold fossil fuel corporations responsible for the full costs of their products.
If you were to provide
actual data showing the
GHG emissions from a single trip to a mall to purchase a household - worth of LED lightbulbs exceeds the
GHG reductions achieved by operating those LEDs for their rated lifetime instead of incandescents, your argument might be worth listening to.