You say both that
actual average global temperature can not be measured and that you know what it is.
If
the actual average global temperature can not be measured how do you know know that it is cooling?
Not exact matches
(2) What proportion of model runs from a multi-model ensemble produce
global mean
temperatures at or below (on
average) the
actual measurement for the last 10 years?
But I would really have preferred if they had written in Helvetica, 30, Bold that the uncertainty band is not on the
actual, as measured in the field,
global average temperature, but on their matematical model of it, and because of the steps that model contain, probably an order of magnitude too optimistic with respect to the
actual temperature.
In my experimentation with techniques to «showcase» the robustness of the
global -
average temperature results, I found that it is also important to show the
actual number of stations reporting data for each year.
Three of the four
global average temperatures indeed are decreasing in their trends (although the
actual global mean
temperatures are still warmer than the previous decades).
And yet, when you do trends of
global data you are
averaging air
temperatures over intervals where the heat content is not continuous, and thus the trend that is the
average temperature does not show the
actual trend of the heat content.
What I mean is simply that we have as much
actual empirical evidence for the existence of even one unicorn in this world as we have for the basic AGW claim that more CO2 in the atmosphere can, will and does cause a net rise in Earth's
average global surface
temperature, i.e. NONE whatsoever!
When he presented his misleading graph, when he said 97 % of climate scientists agree, (knowing full well the
actual situation that the number is bogus and misleading,) when he mentions adjustments to satellite data but not to surface
temperatures with major past cooling and absurd derived precision to.005 * C, when he defends precision in surface
global averages but ignores major estimates of temps and krigging in Arctic, Africa, Asia and oceans or Antarctica, he forfeits credibility.
It showed, if I remember correctly, how a pretty good correlation between calculated and
actual global average temperatures could be obtained for the last century using the NASA graphs of various forcings, here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif
The smaller the grid boxes, the better the
average temperature of the box will reflect the
actual temperature at any given point, leading to a more accurate estimate
global temperature when you add them all together.
Clearly, to use a single value (the
global average annual
average surface
temperature trend) to characterize
global warming is a naive approach and is misleading policymakers on the
actual complexity of the climate system.
The problem is that we are looking for the
average of the
actual global temperature changes for Earth where some areas warm more rapidly than others and some areas cool.
C. warmer than it was with respect to the start of the industrial revolution, I believe that it would be necessary to use
actual average global land - ocean surface
temperature data (which would be imperfectly known that far back).
I am still waiting for word on what the
global temperature anomaly for the month was, but I suspect it will be fairly close to normal, which means that on
average the
temperature of the Earth will come in at ~ 12.0 °C which is 4 °C colder than it will be in 6 months from now, but because of how they talk about
temperature, I will be the only one pointing out the difference between the
actual temperature and the anomaly
temperature.
Ken: The 33 C figure is derived from looking at the
global energy balance, i.e., comparing the
actual average surface
temperature to the
average surface
temperature that one would of necessity have to have if the Earth were otherwise the same (in particular, same albedo) but there was no greenhouse effect.
The black line shows the
actual observed
global average temperatures.
But while «
global warming» itself sounds big and scary, the
actual numbers put to the planet's
average temperature rise sounds rather small - maybe 1 ˚C
averaged out over a century.
But the
actual change of the
global mean
temperature in the last 77 years (in
average) is so tiny that the place - dependent noise still safely beats the «
global warming trend», yielding an ambiguous sign of the
temperature trend that depends on the place.»
They are running too hot an after 22 years since 1990
actual global average temperature fell below the lowest model prediction.
Again, the heavy black line is the
actual temperature record, while the heavy red line is the models»
average calculated
global temperature with CO2 and other greenhouse gases as well as natural forces («With GHGs»).
If
global warming does not fit the observable
temperature measurements, then a new «reality» must be invented to fit the ideology:
actual temperature records must be altered or dismissed — hundreds of
temperature - reporting stations in colder areas worldwide were eliminated from the
global network so the
average temperature is higher than when those stations were included link.
The heavy black line is the
actual temperature record, while the heavy blue line is the models»
average calculated
global temperature with only natural forcings («Without GHGs»).