Sentences with phrase «actual market returns»

While the blue valuation line showed relatively rich valuations, actual market returns over the next 6 years were even worse than expected.

Note the overshoot of actual market returns (versus expected) in the decade since 2002.

As I detailed in Survival Tactics for a Hypervalued Market, the «errors» between actual market returns and those that one would have expected (on the basis of reliable valuation measures 12 - years earlier) are tightly correlated with by cyclical fluctuations in consumer confidence (h / t Mark Louis for that insight).

What you'll observe is that while valuations were somewhat depressed relative to historical norms at the 2009 lows, actual market returns since then have substantially overshot what one would have projected at the time.

All of that said, it's extremely important to observe that while the expected market return / risk profile is flat or negative in all of the conditions shown above, none of these conditions is associated with strictly negative actual market returns.

Actual market returns over time often do not fit a nice, clean, symmetric layout of a «normal distribution» curve.

... [T] he profile of actual market returns — especially over 7 - 10 year horizons — looks much like the simple, humble, raw earnings yield, unadjusted for 10 - year Treasury yields (which are too short in duration and in persistence to drive the valuation of stocks having far longer «durations»).

You'll see that while valuations were rich at the time, the actual market returns were far worse than expected.

In good years, teachers received the actual market return (minus a small fee), and in bad years teachers were guaranteed at least an 8 percent return.

In The Siren's Song of the Unfinished Half - Cycle John Hussman has a great annotated chart comparing the ten - year returns estimated by the Shiller PE to the actual market returns that emerged over the following ten years from each estimate (from 1940 to present): Hussman estimates the ten - year return using a simple formula: Shorthand 10 - year total return -LSB-...]

In The Siren's Song of the Unfinished Half - Cycle John Hussman has a great annotated chart comparing the ten - year returns estimated by the Shiller PE to the actual market returns that emerged...

There is a difference between the component of market returns that can be considered «predictable» ex-ante (before the fact), and actual market returns, which contain both that «predictable» component and a much larger random component.

The most extreme among those points are 1964 (when actual market returns over the following decade were lower than expected), 1988 - 1990, and 2005 (when actual market returns over the following decade were higher than expected).

Missing only 10 of the best days resulted in returns of nearly half the actual market returns and missing the 30 best days actually averaged negative returns.

In The Siren's Song of the Unfinished Half - Cycle John Hussman has a great annotated chart comparing the ten - year returns estimated by the Shiller PE to the actual market returns that emerged over the following ten years from each estimate (from 1940 to present):

Note that there are a few points where the estimate of prospective market returns would have differed from the actual market returns achieved by the S&P 500 over the following decade.