Sentences with phrase «actual temperature projections»

Since CO2 has a logarithmic correlation to temp, take a look at what the Paris agreement would do to the actual temperature projections.

Not exact matches

p.s. To compare to Vahrenholt's forecast, here's a comparison of earlier model projections of global temperature for the IPCC (prediction with the CMIP3 model ensemble used in the 4th IPCC assessment report, published in 2007) with the actual changes in temperature (the four colored curves).

If you're talking about global mean temperature I would advise you to compare the projections of the IPCC to the actual measurements of GISS as well as HadCRUT, RSS MSU, and UAH MSU measured data.

Do you think that in the same way that the Solanki et al paper on solar sunspot reconstructions had a specific statement that their results did not contradict ideas of strong greenhouse warming in recent decades, this (the fact that climate sensitivity projections are not best estimates of possible future actual temperature increases) should be clearly noted in media releases put out by scientists when reporting climate sensitivity studies?

Figure 6 shows Clive Best's three IPCC levels of projection from 1990 against actual surface (blue) and satellite (green) temperature.

Clearly, observed temperature trends are predicting a future temp that resembles the IPCC projection if CO2 was held constant - the actual trends are multiple times below the «runaway» and «accelerating» global warming that Obama and the IPCC still push.

The suspicious mind believes that the IPCC is now shy from making predictions / projections / estimate that involve actual temperatures because when they last did (IPCC4) they got burned with the 0.2 C decadal rate and the low end 1.8 C century rate.

When I see someone claiming that the IPCC temperature projections, in ALL scenarios, estimated higher actual temperatures than we see today on actual record I don't feel like telling them it's irrelevant is a strong argument.

Thus insisting on a comparison of the actual temperature trend to the actual BAU projections in order to determine the accuracy of the model used by IPCC FAR amounts to the assumption that:

and went on to ask» Isn't it trivial to plot actual temperature against the 3 projections the IPCC gave in Fig 6.11?»

We have the instrumental temperature record available all over the place online, but referencing it correctly to the IPCC FAR fig6.11 is tricky without the actual data underlying the FAR projections.

A) The IPCC intended the projections as projections of actual temperature changes rather than projections of the expected influence of greenhouse gases, contrary to the explicity statement of the IPCC FAR;

Isn't it trivial to plot actual temperature against the 3 projections the IPCC gave in Fig 6.11?

I'm afraid that much of the strength of the reaction to your questions was based on past experiences - I can not count how many times someone has commented here and on other climate blogs claiming despite the evidence that mismatches between specific projections and observed temperatures somehow invalidate all climate modeling, despite the projected emissions not matching actuals.

Or this thread comparing various projections (including «skeptic» ones) against actual temperatures, although that only goes to 2011.

The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections.

Severe Type B Error Rather than being normally distributed about the actual temperature trends, > 95 % of the IPCC's 34 year projections are severely biased too hot.

Abstract: «The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections.

The actual temperature hasn't even approximated their lowest prediction (projection).

First, as you can clearly see in the figure «'' the actual observed runnning average temperatures from the Hadley Center since 1995 have been between the IPCC scenario projection and Dr. Keenlyside's forecast, which does suggest that his model may be underestimating warming.

BTW, Excel 2007 is incapable of graphing correctly series showing the projections of mean temperatures of any 2 locations from now to 2100 from actuals (1960 to 2007)-- for Excel graphs the average in 2007 of 21.323 (Hilo) and -61.3139 (Pt Barrow) is not -20.0418 but -61.3139!!!.