How much protection the annual flu shot provides depends on how well the vaccine (which is designed based on a «best guess» for next season's flu strain) matches
the actually circulating virus.
Not exact matches
In any given season, the effectiveness of the vaccine depends on how good a match there is between the
viruses used in the drug's production and the strains that are
actually circulating that year.
That's even true for years where the flu shot is a poor match for flu
viruses actually circulating, as happened in the 2016 - 2017 season, the findings suggest.